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CGAU or GFI or PAAS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) vs. Gold Fields Limited (GFI) vs. Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Centerra Gold (CGAU) leads with +19.51% YTD gains, bolstered by robust Q1 2026 earnings and production surpassing guidance.
- Gold Fields (GFI) provides stability via low beta (0.82, a measure of volatility relative to the market) and attractive dividend yield around 3.6%.
- Pan American Silver (PAAS) emphasizes silver exposure with growth catalysts like the La Colorada project, though higher P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) at 20.24 reflects premium valuation.
- All three stocks have seen recent analyst upgrades amid gold's strength, but CGAU trades at the lowest P/E (5.57), signaling value.
- Recent market pullbacks reflect gold's 1.4% monthly dip, yet YTD precious metals momentum favors gold-focused producers.
Introduction
Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU), Gold Fields Limited (GFI), and Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) are prominent precious metals producers navigating a volatile sector influenced by gold and silver price swings. This comparison analyzes their recent performance, valuations, and market positioning, aiding swing traders seeking momentum plays and long-term investors eyeing dividend stability or growth potential. With gold prices up significantly year-to-date despite recent softening, these stocks offer insights into relative strength amid macroeconomic shifts like inflation hedges and geopolitical tensions.
CGAU Overview and Recent Performance
Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) is a mid-tier gold producer focused on operations in North America and Central Asia, including the Mount Milligan mine. In recent market activity, the stock has traded around $17.27, reflecting strong year-to-date gains of 19.51% and a one-year surge over 170%. Q1 2026 results highlighted record cash generation, surpassing gold and copper production guidance, alongside a dividend hike, boosting sentiment. Analyst upgrades, such as Scotiabank's Outperform rating with a $21 target, underscore operational resilience amid rising gold prices. Elevated volume and beta (1.52) indicate heightened trader interest, though short-term dips mirror sector pullbacks.
GFI Overview and Recent Performance
Gold Fields Limited (GFI) operates as a major gold producer with assets in Australia, South Africa, and the Americas. Shares recently hovered near $42.08, with modest YTD returns of 0.81% but substantial one-year appreciation. Recent weeks featured analyst upgrades, including Canaccord's Buy rating at $57.25 and Morgan Stanley's Equal Weight shift, driven by strategic investments like increased stakes in exploration firms. Low beta (0.82) and a trailing dividend yield of 3.63% appeal to stability seekers. Performance reflects gold's broader trends, with resilience from diversified portfolio despite earnings quality concerns.
PAAS Overview and Recent Performance
Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) is a leading silver producer with significant gold output from mines across the Americas. The stock has traded around $51.81 lately, posting 1.41% YTD gains and over 117% one-year returns. Recent developments include Scotiabank raising its price target to $65 and optimism around the La Colorada skarn project PEA (preliminary economic assessment). Ahead of Q1 earnings, sentiment focuses on production growth and cash flow records from 2025. Higher beta (1.53) signals volatility tied to silver-gold dynamics, with pullbacks aligning with sector peers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
CGAU, GFI, and PAAS share precious metals exposure but differ in scale and focus: CGAU as a nimble gold-copper player ($3.4B market cap), GFI a global gold giant ($38B cap, low debt/equity 37%), and PAAS silver-dominant with balanced portfolio ($22B cap). Growth drivers include CGAU's production beats, GFI's exploration investments, and PAAS's project advancements. Recent momentum favors CGAU (low P/E 5.57), while GFI offers lower risk (beta 0.82, high ROE 51.93%) and yield. PAAS trades at a growth premium (forward P/E 11.35). Sentiment is positive across, but GFI balances valuation sensitivity to gold least volatily.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently favors Gold Fields (GFI) for its relative stability, low beta, attractive dividend, and recent analyst upgrades amid gold's uptrend. While CGAU shows superior momentum and value, GFI's scale and consistent positioning offer higher probability of outperformance in consolidating markets.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CGAU’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileGFI’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and PAAS’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- CGAU’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- GFI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PAAS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CGAU’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while GFI’s TA Score has 2 bullish TA indicator(s), and PAAS’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CGAU’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- GFI’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PAAS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CGAU (@Precious Metals) experienced а -11.65% price change this week, while GFI (@Precious Metals) price change was -7.96% , and PAAS (@Precious Metals) price fluctuated -16.43% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was -13.91%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -25.21%, and the average quarterly price growth was -11.87%.
Reported Earning Dates
CGAU is expected to report earnings on Aug 12, 2026.
GFI is expected to report earnings on Aug 21, 2026.
PAAS is expected to report earnings on Aug 12, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (-13.91% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
| CGAU | GFI | PAAS | |
| Capitalization | 2.92B | 32B | 18.6B |
| EBITDA | 936M | 6.34B | 2.22B |
| Gain YTD | 7.168 | -16.345 | -10.437 |
| P/E Ratio | 4.75 | 9.01 | 13.93 |
| Revenue | 1.57B | 8.75B | 4B |
| Total Cash | 555M | 1.78B | 1.61B |
| Total Debt | 43.7M | 3.22B | 845M |
CGAU | GFI | PAAS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 20 | 54 | 54 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 16 Undervalued | 5 Undervalued | 18 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 41 | 45 | 59 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 63 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 99 | 94 | 96 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 33 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GFI's Valuation (5) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as CGAU (16) in the null industry, and is in the same range as PAAS (18) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that GFI's stock grew similarly to CGAU’s and similarly to PAAS’s over the last 12 months.
CGAU's Profit vs Risk Rating (41) in the null industry is in the same range as GFI (45) in the Precious Metals industry, and is in the same range as PAAS (59) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU's stock grew similarly to GFI’s and similarly to PAAS’s over the last 12 months.
CGAU's SMR Rating (100) in the null industry is in the same range as GFI (100) in the Precious Metals industry, and is in the same range as PAAS (100) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU's stock grew similarly to GFI’s and similarly to PAAS’s over the last 12 months.
CGAU's Price Growth Rating (48) in the null industry is in the same range as PAAS (60) in the Precious Metals industry, and is in the same range as GFI (63) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU's stock grew similarly to PAAS’s and similarly to GFI’s over the last 12 months.
GFI's P/E Growth Rating (94) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as PAAS (96) in the Precious Metals industry, and is in the same range as CGAU (99) in the null industry. This means that GFI's stock grew similarly to PAAS’s and similarly to CGAU’s over the last 12 months.
| CGAU | GFI | PAAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A | 2 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 89% | 2 days ago 88% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 75% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 76% | N/A | 13 days ago 80% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 86% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 58% | N/A |
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