Foodservice distribution is a useful lens for gauging U.S. consumer and restaurant demand, and CHEF, PFGC, and USFD represent three distinct ways to invest in that theme. The Chefs' Warehouse focuses on premium specialty ingredients for upscale kitchens, Performance Food Group spans broadline, convenience, and specialty channels, and US Foods anchors the broadline market with a growing technology platform. For traders and investors weighing growth against valuation, this stock comparison highlights meaningful contrasts in market positioning, momentum, and sensitivity to restaurant traffic and costs.
The Chefs' Warehouse is a specialty food distributor serving fine dining, independent restaurants, hotels, and resorts across the United States, Canada, and the Middle East, carrying more than 90,000 products. In recent quarters, CHEF has posted accelerating results: net sales rose roughly 12% on strong organic volume, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) expanded at a faster rate than revenue, signaling operating leverage. Management raised full-year guidance and outlined long-term targets of $6.0–$6.5 billion in revenue by 2030.
Sentiment has been buoyed by margin gains and share gains, but the stock has also re-rated sharply, trading near the upper end of its five-year valuation range. Middle East demand remains a watch item after regional conflict softened hotel and resort activity in recent weeks. The combination of premium execution and an elevated multiple leaves less room for error, a key consideration in any relative comparison.
Performance Food Group is among the largest food distributors in North America, operating through Foodservice, Convenience (Core-Mark), and Specialty (Vistar) segments and serving more than 300,000 customer locations. The company has grown aggressively through acquisitions, including Cheney Brothers, and continues to gain independent-restaurant case volume at a mid-single-digit pace. Recent results, however, have been mixed: the latest quarter missed consensus estimates as higher fuel costs and expenses tied to the Cheney Brothers facility transition weighed on profitability.
PFGC's share price has pulled back over the past year despite solid top-line growth, reflecting investor caution around cost inflation, restaurant traffic, and an elevated price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple relative to the sector. The company has also faced shareholder-activism-related expenses and a clean-team agreement with US Foods, adding a governance-related overlay. Its scale and diversification remain strengths, but near-term momentum has lagged the other two names in this comparison.
US Foods is a leading broadline foodservice distributor serving roughly 250,000 customer locations, including independent and chain restaurants, healthcare, and hospitality operators. Recent quarters have been characterized by record adjusted EBITDA and margins, supported by accelerating independent-restaurant case growth and a long streak of market-share gains. The company's Pronto small-truck delivery service and AI-driven tools such as MenuIQ have reinforced its digital and service differentiation.
USFD has grown adjusted earnings per share (EPS) faster than EBITDA, aided by share repurchases, and management reaffirmed full-year guidance even amid softer restaurant traffic. The stock has outperformed the broader market over the past year, though it pulled back in recent weeks alongside sector-wide demand concerns. Its blend of self-help initiatives, buybacks, and steady execution gives it a comparatively balanced risk-reward profile.
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These three companies share a sector but differ in scale, model, and risk. PFGC is by far the largest, with revenue roughly 1.5 times USFD's and more than ten times CHEF's, and its convenience and specialty arms diversify exposure beyond restaurants. USFD offers a broadline pure play with a strong self-help and technology narrative. CHEF is the smallest and most specialized, giving it the highest sensitivity to premium and discretionary dining.
On growth, CHEF has shown the fastest recent organic expansion, while USFD has produced the most consistent margin progression. PFGC's growth has been acquisition-augmented but burdened by integration and fuel costs. On valuation, CHEF and PFGC trade at premium multiples relative to their histories, whereas USFD sits on a more moderate P/E despite strong execution. Risk factors also differ: CHEF faces Middle East and upscale-demand exposure, PFGC carries integration and cost-pressure risks, and USFD remains sensitive to chain-restaurant traffic and fuel prices. These trade-offs make the choice less about "best" and more about which profile fits an investor's objectives.
Based on observable trend consistency, margin momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward USFD as the most balanced candidate. Its record adjusted EBITDA, accelerating independent-restaurant case growth, and steady share gains reflect durable trend strength, while its moderate valuation and buyback support offer a more favorable risk profile than CHEF's extended multiple. CHEF's superior growth remains compelling but is partly offset by valuation and geographic risk, while PFGC's softer momentum and cost headwinds currently weigh on its relative appeal. As always, this probabilistic assessment reflects current data and could shift as earnings, traffic, and cost trends evolve.
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Be on the lookout for a price bounce soon.
Following a +6.01% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CHEF advanced for three days, in 260 of 341 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
CHEF may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 235 of 311 cases where CHEF Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 76%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CHEF as a result. In 53 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CHEF turned negative on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 39 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 76%.
CHEF moved below its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CHEF crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 16 of 21 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CHEF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CHEF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 89 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.663) is normal, around the industry mean (2.957). P/E Ratio (44.487) is within average values for comparable stocks, (54.929). CHEF's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.910) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.741). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. CHEF's P/S Ratio (1.148) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.357).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where PFGC advanced for three days, in 226 of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PFGC just turned positive on September 23, 2026. Looking at past instances where PFGC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 219 of 323 cases where PFGC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 68%.
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PFGC moved out of overbought territory on October 19, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 57 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 32 of the 57 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 56%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 33 of 61 cases where PFGC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 23, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PFGC as a result. In 55 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
PFGC moved below its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 50-day moving average for PFGC moved below the 200-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PFGC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
PFGC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PFGC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 73 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.036) is normal, around the industry mean (2.957). P/E Ratio (41.178) is within average values for comparable stocks, (54.929). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.768) is also within normal values, averaging (0.741). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.211) is also within normal values, averaging (0.357).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for USFD turned positive on October 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where USFD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 01, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on USFD as a result. In 61 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
USFD moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for USFD crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Following a +3.56% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where USFD advanced for three days, in 200 of 316 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 168 of 286 cases where USFD Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 59%.
The 10-day RSI Indicator for USFD moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 41 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 59%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 13 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where USFD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
USFD broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. USFD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 69 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.102) is normal, around the industry mean (2.957). P/E Ratio (30.672) is within average values for comparable stocks, (54.929). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.908) is also within normal values, averaging (0.741). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.516) is also within normal values, averaging (0.357).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
CHEF | PFGC | USFD | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 89 | 36 | 33 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 89 Overvalued | 73 Overvalued | 69 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 27 | 8 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 55 | 77 | 53 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 52 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 19 | 53 | 44 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 85 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
USFD's Valuation (69) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as PFGC (73) and is in the same range as CHEF (89). This means that USFD's stock grew similarly to PFGC’s and similarly to CHEF’s over the last 12 months.
CHEF's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as USFD (8) and is in the same range as PFGC (27). This means that CHEF's stock grew similarly to USFD’s and similarly to PFGC’s over the last 12 months.
USFD's SMR Rating (53) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as CHEF (55) and is in the same range as PFGC (77). This means that USFD's stock grew similarly to CHEF’s and similarly to PFGC’s over the last 12 months.
CHEF's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as USFD (41) and is in the same range as PFGC (52). This means that CHEF's stock grew similarly to USFD’s and similarly to PFGC’s over the last 12 months.
CHEF's P/E Growth Rating (19) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as USFD (44) and is somewhat better than the same rating for PFGC (53). This means that CHEF's stock grew similarly to USFD’s and somewhat faster than PFGC’s over the last 12 months.
| CHEF | PFGC | USFD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 51% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 76% | 9 days ago 70% | 9 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 12 days ago 67% | 25 days ago 55% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 59% |
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CHEF’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while PFGC’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and USFD’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CHEF’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PFGC’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s), and USFD’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
CHEF (@Food Distributors) experienced а -6.77% price change this week, while PFGC (@Food Distributors) price change was -3.14% , and USFD (@Food Distributors) price fluctuated -1.03% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food Distributors industry was -3.19%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.84%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.14%.
CHEF is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
PFGC is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
USFD is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Food distributors function as intermediaries between food manufacturers and food service operators (such as chefs, restaurants, beverage managers, cafeterias, industrial caterers, hospitals and nursing homes). Food distribution companies buy, store and then supply food items to the food service operators, thereby allowing the latter to have access to a wide range of food items from various manufacturers. Sysco Corporation, US Foods Holding Corp. and Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. are some of the biggest (by market cap) U.S. companies in this segment. Most food service operators buy from local, specialty, and/or broad line food service distributors on a daily or weekly basis. With the rise in e-commerce, consumers are increasingly expecting lower prices, faster service, and higher quality – something that potentially creates the impetus on distribution networks to raise their game.
A.I.dvisor tells us that CHEF and SYY have been poorly correlated (+25% of the time) for the last year. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is low statistical probability that CHEF and SYY's prices will move in lockstep.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CHEF | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHEF | 100% | -1.31% | ||
| SYY - CHEF | 25% Poorly correlated | -3.10% | ||
| AVO - CHEF | 11% Poorly correlated | -1.10% | ||
| USFD - CHEF | 5% Poorly correlated | -3.02% | ||
| HFFG - CHEF | 5% Poorly correlated | +0.68% | ||
| ANDE - CHEF | 1% Poorly correlated | -0.26% | ||
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A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, USFD has been loosely correlated with PFGC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 59% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if USFD jumps, then PFGC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To USFD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USFD | 100% | -3.02% | ||
| PFGC - USFD | 59% Loosely correlated | -3.25% | ||
| SYY - USFD | 39% Loosely correlated | -3.10% | ||
| CHEF - USFD | 38% Loosely correlated | -1.31% | ||
| UNFI - USFD | 24% Poorly correlated | -0.85% | ||
| DIT - USFD | 6% Poorly correlated | N/A | ||
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| FTIF | 29.97 | 0.40 | +1.36% |
| First Trust Bloomberg Inflation Sensitive Equity ETF (FTIF) | |||
| BAMY | 26.53 | -0.02 | -0.06% |
| Brookstone Yield ETF (BAMY) | |||
| PXF | 75.95 | -0.18 | -0.24% |
| Invesco RAFI Developed Markets ex-U.S. ETF (PXF) | |||
| XXRP | 25.82 | -0.11 | -0.42% |
| Teucrium 2X Long Daily Xrp ETF | |||
| JEMB | 51.21 | -0.26 | -0.51% |
| Janus Henderson Emerging Markets Debt Hard Currency ETF (JEMB) | |||