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IYW or PSI or VGT
Which ETF would AI Choose? iShares U.S. Technology ETF (IYW) vs. Invesco Semiconductors ETF (PSI) vs. Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT)
Key Takeaways
- IYW offers broad U.S. technology exposure through a capped index that limits single-stock concentration while maintaining significant semiconductor and software weightings.
- PSI delivers concentrated, factor-driven exposure to approximately 30 semiconductor companies using a quantitative Intellidex methodology that emphasizes risk-adjusted selection.
- VGT provides the broadest diversification across the information technology sector with over 300 holdings and the lowest expense ratio among the three at 0.09%.
- Structural differences in holdings count, sector focus, and weighting schemes create distinct risk profiles: PSI exhibits higher concentration risk, while VGT emphasizes multi-capitalization breadth.
- Expense ratios range from 0.09% for VGT to 0.55% for PSI, influencing long-term cost efficiency for buy-and-hold investors.
- All three ETFs track passive benchmarks tied to U.S. technology themes but differ in thematic tilt, with PSI narrowly focused on semiconductors versus the wider technology mandates of IYW and VGT.
Introduction
These three ETFs provide targeted access to U.S. technology equities but pursue distinct strategic approaches within the same overarching theme. IYW and VGT deliver broad technology sector exposure with varying degrees of diversification and cost structures, while PSI narrows the focus exclusively to semiconductors through a multi-factor quantitative index. Investors comparing them evaluate trade-offs between concentration, expense efficiency, and thematic purity in a sector shaped by innovation cycles and capital allocation trends.
iShares U.S. Technology ETF (IYW) Overview
IYW seeks to track the Russell 1000 Technology RIC 22.5/45 Capped Index, which measures the performance of U.S. technology equities with capping constraints to limit individual issuer weights. The ETF holds approximately 148 securities and maintains allocations across semiconductors, software, hardware, and media. Top holdings typically include NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, Alphabet, and AVGO. Sector exposure concentrates in semiconductors and semiconductor equipment alongside software and services. It carries an expense ratio of 0.37% and employs a passive, full-replication approach with quarterly rebalancing aligned to the index methodology.
Invesco Semiconductors ETF (PSI) Overview
PSI tracks the Dynamic Semiconductor Intellidex Index, selecting and weighting approximately 30 U.S. semiconductor companies using a proprietary quantitative model that incorporates price momentum, earnings momentum, quality, management action, and value factors. The ETF features a more balanced weighting across holdings compared with market-capitalization approaches, reducing mega-cap dominance. Top positions often include companies such as KLAC, AMD, AVGO, and AMAT. It maintains an expense ratio of 0.55% and rebalances quarterly in February, May, August, and November.
Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) Overview
VGT tracks the MSCI US Investable Market Information Technology 25/50 Index, capturing large-, mid-, and small-capitalization U.S. information technology companies classified under the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS). The ETF holds more than 320 securities, offering the widest diversification among the three. Expense ratio stands at 0.09%. Sector exposure spans the full information technology category without additional thematic overlays. It follows a passive full-replication strategy where feasible, with low turnover and quarterly dividend distributions.
Industry and Thematic Landscape
The U.S. technology sector continues to experience capital inflows driven by advancements in artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and semiconductor demand. Regulatory scrutiny around competition, data privacy, and export controls influences capital allocation, particularly for semiconductor supply chains. Earnings trends among leading semiconductor and software firms reflect sustained investment in capacity expansion and product innovation, while geopolitical tensions introduce supply-chain volatility. Broader macroeconomic factors such as interest-rate trajectories and corporate capital-expenditure cycles shape sector performance across market cycles.
Performance and Positioning Comparison
In recent market cycles, the narrower semiconductor focus of PSI has produced greater volatility and larger drawdowns relative to the broader mandates of IYW and VGT. VGT’s multi-capitalization breadth and lower expense ratio support more stable risk-adjusted outcomes over extended periods. IYW occupies a middle ground, blending technology sub-sectors with index caps that moderate concentration risk. Differences in holdings depth and weighting methodologies explain relative sensitivity to semiconductor-specific catalysts versus diversified technology trends.
AI Screener
Tickeron’s AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener helps identify trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities more efficiently than manual screening.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable structural characteristics, VGT presents the strongest combination of broad diversification, lowest cost, and multi-capitalization exposure within the information technology theme, positioning it favorably for risk-adjusted outcomes in probabilistic terms. IYW offers competitive breadth with moderate concentration controls, while PSI suits investors seeking targeted semiconductor factor exposure despite higher costs and narrower holdings.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
IYW in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026
IYW moved below its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 30 of 33 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on IYW as a result. In 77 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for IYW turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 44 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 88%.
The 10-day moving average for IYW crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 15 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where IYW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where IYW's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 22 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 7 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.07% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where IYW advanced for three days, in 326 of 374 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
IYW may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 294 of 319 cases where IYW Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.
Momentum Indicator for PSI turns negative, indicating new downward trend
PSI saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 09, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 93 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 86 of the 93 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PSI turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 54 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 49 of the 54 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 90%.
PSI moved below its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for PSI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 16 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PSI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +5.56% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PSI advanced for three days, in 309 of 348 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
PSI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 294 of 310 cases where PSI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.
VGT in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026
The 10-day moving average for VGT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 15 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on VGT as a result. In 76 of 89 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for VGT turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 54 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 46 of the 54 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 85%.
VGT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VGT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where VGT's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 23 of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 7 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.15% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VGT advanced for three days, in 339 of 388 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
VGT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 299 of 328 cases where VGT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.
| IYW | PSI | VGT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 85% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 85% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 86% | 2 days ago 88% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 2 days ago 86% | 2 days ago 87% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 87% | 23 days ago 89% | 19 days ago 87% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 84% | 9 days ago 83% | 9 days ago 83% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| JIVE | 93.77 | -0.08 | -0.09% |
| JPMorgan International Value ETF (JIVE) | |||
| NIXT | 35.22 | -0.15 | -0.43% |
| Research Affiliates Deletions ETF (NIXT) | |||
| GRX | 9.96 | -0.06 | -0.60% |
| Gabelli Healthcare & Wellness Trust (The) | |||
| JOUL | 19.44 | -0.14 | -0.69% |
| Corgi High Voltage Grid Equipment ETF (JOUL) | |||
| ECC | 2.63 | -0.12 | -4.36% |
| Eagle Point Credit Company | |||
PSI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PSI has been closely correlated with ONTO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PSI jumps, then ONTO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PSI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSI | 100% | +1.33% | ||
| ONTO - PSI | 88% Closely correlated | +0.01% | ||
| SYNA - PSI | 83% Closely correlated | +0.19% | ||
| ACLS - PSI | 81% Closely correlated | +1.76% | ||
| GFS - PSI | 77% Closely correlated | +2.35% | ||
| AEIS - PSI | 77% Closely correlated | -0.00% | ||
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