MTH Meritage Homes Corporation Forecast, Technical & Fundamental Analysis

MTH sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average

The 50-day moving average for MTH moved above the 200-day moving average on September 05, 2025. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTH advanced for three days, in of 296 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

MTH may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 17, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MTH as a result. In of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MTH turned negative on September 12, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

MTH moved below its 50-day moving average on September 22, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for MTH crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 26, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTH declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for MTH entered a downward trend on October 10, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.899) is normal, around the industry mean (19.418). P/E Ratio (7.587) is within average values for comparable stocks, (54.259). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.374). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.039) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.778) is also within normal values, averaging (24.273).

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MTH’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MTH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 73, placing this stock better than average.