MTH Meritage Homes Corporation Forecast, Technical & Fundamental Analysis

MTH in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on September 01, 2026

MTH may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In of 38 cases where MTH's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTH advanced for three days, in of 293 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on August 25, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MTH as a result. In of 78 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MTH turned negative on August 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

MTH moved below its 50-day moving average on August 10, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for MTH crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on July 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTH declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for MTH entered a downward trend on August 10, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.868) is normal, around the industry mean (2.078). P/E Ratio (14.035) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.538). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (3.186). Dividend Yield (0.027) settles around the average of (0.026) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.858) is also within normal values, averaging (25.308).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MTH’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MTH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 69, placing this stock worse than average.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.