MTH Meritage Homes Corporation Forecast, Technical & Fundamental Analysis

MTH in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on September 08, 2026

MTH may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 32 of 38 cases where MTH's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MTH's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 21 of 26 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 43 of 58 cases where MTH's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MTH as a result. In 60 of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MTH just turned positive on September 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where MTH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.

Following a +4.98% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTH advanced for three days, in 207 of 293 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.

The Aroon Indicator for MTH entered a downward trend on September 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 6 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.856) is normal, around the industry mean (1.920). P/E Ratio (13.833) is within average values for comparable stocks, (22.620). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.090) is also within normal values, averaging (1.216). Dividend Yield (0.028) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.814) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MTH’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MTH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock worse than average.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.