| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | M | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Yearly Return |
| Average | 0.99% | 0.87% | 0.48% | 1.60% | 0.25% | 0.85% | 2.82% | -0.30% | -0.66% | 2.13% | 2.90% | 0.55% | — |
| 2026 | 1.37% | -0.87% | -5.09% | 9.22% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16% YTD |
| 2025 | 2.70% | -1.42% | -5.75% | -0.76% | 6.15% | 4.96% | 2.17% | 1.91% | 3.53% | 2.27% | 0.13% | -0.05% | 16.39% |
| 2024 | 1.59% | 5.17% | 3.10% | -4.16% | 4.80% | 3.47% | 1.13% | 2.28% | 2.02% | -0.99% | 5.73% | -2.50% | 23.31% |
| 2023 | 6.18% | -2.61% | 3.51% | 1.46% | 0.25% | 6.47% | 3.11% | -1.77% | -4.87% | -2.20% | 8.92% | 4.42% | 24.23% |
| 2022 | -5.26% | -3.14% | 3.58% | -8.80% | 0.01% | -8.39% | 9.11% | -4.24% | -9.34% | 7.99% | 5.38% | -5.90% | -19.44% |
| 2021 | -1.11% | 2.61% | 4.24% | 5.24% | 0.55% | 2.22% | 2.27% | 2.90% | -4.76% | 6.91% | -0.83% | 4.36% | 26.89% |
| 2020 | -0.16% | -8.41% | -12.51% | 12.68% | 4.53% | 1.84% | 5.51% | 7.01% | -3.92% | -2.77% | 10.75% | 3.71% | 16.26% |
| 2019 | 7.87% | 2.97% | 1.79% | 3.93% | -6.58% | 6.89% | 1.31% | -1.81% | 1.72% | 2.04% | 3.40% | 2.86% | 28.88% |
| 2018 | 5.62% | -3.89% | -2.69% | 0.27% | 2.16% | 0.48% | 3.60% | 3.03% | 0.43% | -6.94% | 1.79% | -9.18% | -6.24% |
| 2017 | 1.79% | 3.72% | -0.04% | 0.91% | 1.16% | 0.48% | 1.93% | 0.05% | 1.93% | 2.22% | 2.81% | 0.98% | 19.42% |
| 2016 | -5.07% | -0.41% | 6.60% | 0.27% | 1.53% | 0.09% | 3.56% | -0.12% | -0.12% | -1.94% | 3.42% | 1.82% | 9.54% |
| 2015 | -3.10% | 5.49% | -1.74% | 0.85% | 1.05% | -2.10% | 1.97% | -6.26% | -2.64% | 8.30% | 0.05% | -1.75% | -0.73% |
| 2014 | -3.56% | 4.31% | 0.69% | 0.62% | 2.10% | 1.91% | -1.51% | 3.77% | -1.55% | 2.32% | 2.45% | -0.42% | 11.39% |
| 2013 | 5.04% | 1.11% | 3.60% | 1.81% | 2.08% | -1.50% | 4.95% | -3.13% | 2.97% | 4.46% | 2.80% | 2.36% | 29.60% |
The "Sell in May" adage has a historical basis: since 1945, the May–October window averages only +2.1% versus +7% for November–April per CFRA's Sam Stovall. But recent history inverts that narrative entirely. Over the last 12 years, May–October has averaged +5.1% (LPL Financial). More specifically:
May: 12 of the last 13 years GREEN
Looking at the transcribed table: May was positive in 2013 (+2.08%), 2014 (+2.10%), 2015 (+1.05%), 2016 (+1.53%), 2017 (+1.16%), 2018 (+2.16%), 2020 (+4.53%), 2021 (+0.55%), 2022 (+0.01%), 2023 (+0.25%), 2024 (+4.80%), 2025 (+6.15%). The sole red May was 2019 (-6.58%), which followed a significant April run and was triggered by a sudden escalation in US-China trade tariffs. The average May return across the table is +0.25% — modest, but the win rate is what matters.
2026 May Setup: April 2026 delivered +9.22%, the strongest April since the COVID rebound month of April 2020 (+12.68%). In 2020, the month after a +12.68% April was May +4.53%. In 2024, after a -4.16% April, May still recovered to +4.80%. The base rate strongly favors a positive May 2026.
June: 9 of the last 10 years GREEN
The table shows June was positive in 2013 (-1.50% — the exception), 2014 (+1.91%), 2015 (-2.10%), 2016 (+0.09%), 2017 (+0.48%), 2018 (+0.48%), 2019 (+6.89%), 2020 (+1.84%), 2021 (+2.22%), 2022 (-8.39% — the exception), 2023 (+6.47%), 2024 (+3.47%), 2025 (+4.96%). The average June per the full table is +0.85% — the second-best month of the three. Over the past decade, June 2022's -8.39% was the lone major exception, driven by the most aggressive Fed rate-hiking cycle in 40 years — a condition that does not exist in 2026 with the Fed holding at 3.5%–3.75% and projected to cut.
2026 June Setup: JPMorgan's trading desk data shows the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.9% gain in June over the last decade. The Fed is expected to deliver its first rate cut in H2 2026, with June FOMC being a key catalyst date. Rate cut expectations historically create a tailwind for equities in the weeks leading into and following the announcement.
July: 11 of the last 11 years GREEN
This is the most statistically powerful single-month streak in the entire seasonality table. Looking at the data: July was positive in 2015 (+1.97%), 2016 (+3.56%), 2017 (+1.93%), 2018 (+3.60%), 2019 (+1.31%), 2020 (+5.51%), 2021 (+2.27%), 2022 (+9.11%), 2023 (+3.11%), 2024 (+1.13%), 2025 (+2.17%). The average July return in the table is +2.82% — the highest of any month. Even in 2022, the worst year in the table (-19.44% yearly), July delivered +9.11%.
Why July Works: Carson Group's analysis identifies July as the heart of Q2 earnings season. "Every year we come into the year with all the bowtie-wearing economists telling us how bad everything is… yet by the time we get around to second quarter earnings it becomes abundantly clear there is no recession coming and stocks soar." July 2026 will feature Q2 earnings from the Magnificent 7, major banks, industrials, and healthcare — a historically catalyst-rich environment.
Historical basis: Technology has outperformed the S&P 500 in 90% of all post-correction scenarios per SentimenTrader. The sector leads during earnings season, which accelerates in July. In 2025, tech drove the entire May–July window with the S&P returning +6.15%, +4.96%, and +2.17%.
Stocks: NVDA | MSFT | GOOGL | META | AMZN | AAPL | AMD | AVGO | PLTR | CRM
NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN — all report Q2 earnings in late July, which historically triggers the strongest single-session moves of the year.
ADBE and CRM remain at depressed multiples and need earnings catalyst confirmation before trend reversal. Both report in May/June.
Historical basis: Financials historically outperform in Q2 as loan volumes, investment banking, and trading revenues are reported. The sector is a consistent June and July outperformer, benefiting from steepening yield curves and earnings surprise potential.
Stocks: JPM | GS | MS | V | MA | FISV | AXP | BLK
Major banks report Q2 earnings in mid-July — JPM, GS, MS . Their earnings season launch historically sets the tone for the entire July rally.
V reported a +8.26% single-day gain on April 29, 2026 on strong consumer spending — that momentum is a June–July seasonal tailwind.
Credit quality deterioration from the weakening LEI could create spread widening in bank loan portfolios — a modest headwind for
BAC and regional banks.
Historical basis: Consumer discretionary outperforms in 91% of instances over the following year after a correction low, per SentimenTrader. The sector benefits from the Q2 earnings season where consumer spending data is reported. Retail, restaurants, and travel names are seasonally strong in July.
Stocks: AMZN | TSLA | HD | MCD | CMG | SBUX | BKNG | ABNB
are the summer travel plays — booking data for summer 2026 vacations peaks in May and June, directly boosting these stocks before Q2 earnings confirm the revenue.
CMG has conservative 2026 guidance that sets a positive earnings surprise setup for July.
SBUX reported +8.45% on April 29, 2026 — positive momentum entering May.
remain under structural pressure from tariffs and margin compression; seasonal tailwinds alone are insufficient to reverse their downtrends.
Historical basis: Industrials outperform in the May–July window as construction activity peaks seasonally and defense/infrastructure contract announcements cluster around mid-year government budget cycles.
Stocks: CAT | PWR | EME | GEV | FIX | MTZ | NOC | RTX
PWR and EME are in the middle of a multi-year AI power grid buildout cycle — their backlog does not slow in summer.
GEV (GE Vernova) hit 52-week highs earlier in 2026 and was cited by Morningstar as one of the top 6 rotation leaders.
Defense names NOC and RTX benefit from elevated geopolitical tension related to the Iran conflict maintaining defense budget tailwinds.
Historical basis: In the early weeks of May, defensive rotation often peaks as investors position cautiously before the seasonal data confirms the summer rally thesis. By June and especially July, defensives tend to give back leadership to growth and cyclicals. In 2026's specific context, the LEI-to-CEI divergence creates an unusual dynamic where defensives have stronger fundamental support than a typical seasonal cycle would suggest.
Stocks: WMT | COST | PG | JNJ | ABT | NEE | XOM
WMT and COST are the strongest defensive-seasonal plays: consumer staple demand is stable, and both companies report May/June earnings that historically beat estimates.
NEE benefits from increasing AI data center power contract announcements through the summer.
| Stock | Ticker | Peak Month | Key Catalyst |
| Nvidia | July | Q2 earnings; AI capex commentary | |
| Microsoft | July | Azure AI revenue growth Q2 report | |
| Alphabet | July | Q2 earnings; ad revenue recovery | |
| Meta | July | Q2 earnings; Llama AI monetization | |
| JPMorgan | July | Bank earnings season launch | |
| Booking Holdings | May–June | Summer travel booking surge | |
| Chipotle | July | Conservative guidance; positive surprise | |
| Quanta Services | May–July | AI power grid backlog; no seasonality risk | |
| Amazon | July | Q2 earnings + Prime Day July catalyst | |
| Visa | June–July | Consumer spending recovery; momentum |
| Stock | Ticker | Risk Factor |
| Nike | Structural tariff pressure; no seasonal override | |
| Lululemon | Margin compression; North America slowdown | |
| Novo Nordisk | GLP-1 competition; 60% off peak; no near-term catalyst | |
| Kraft Heinz | Secular decline; no seasonal tailwind | |
| General Mills | Volume erosion; flat guidance | |
| Long-Duration Treasuries | Fiscal supply overhang; risk-on summer reduces safe-haven bid |
| ETF | Name | Exposure | Ticker |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | Broad S&P 500 — the core seasonal vehicle | |
| QQQ | Invesco Nasdaq-100 ETF | Tech/AI leadership; strongest May–July sector | |
| XLK | Technology Select Sector SPDR | Pure tech sector; earnings-driven July rally | |
| XLF | Financial Select Sector SPDR | Banks; Q2 earnings season launch | |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | Travel, retail, restaurants — summer peak | |
| XLI | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | Infrastructure + defense summer cycle | |
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | AI chips; 11-of-11 July positive in current streak | |
| SOXL | Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X | Leveraged semi upside in seasonal window | |
| XLP | Consumer Staples SPDR | May defensive positioning before summer rotation | |
| TECL | Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X | Leveraged tech for confirmed summer rally trades |
S&P 500 Base Case: +1.5% to +3.5% | Historical win rate: 12/13 (92%)
S&P 500 Base Case: +1.5% to +3.0% | Historical win rate: 9/10 (90%) | Key catalyst: June FOMC
S&P 500 Base Case: +2.5% to +4.5% | Historical win rate: 11/11 (100%) | Key catalyst: Q2 Earnings Season
| ETF | May Trend | June Trend | July Trend | Volatility |
| UP | UP | UP | MODERATE | |
| UP | UP | STRONGLY UP | HIGH | |
| UP | UP | STRONGLY UP | HIGH | |
| SIDEWAYS TO UP | UP | UP | MODERATE | |
| UP | UP | UP | MODERATE-HIGH | |
| UP | UP | UP | MODERATE | |
| UP | UP | STRONGLY UP | HIGH | |
| UP | UP | PARABOLIC UP | EXTREME | |
| UP EARLY, FADES | SIDEWAYS | UNDERPERFORMS | LOW | |
| UP | UP | STRONGLY UP | EXTREME |
Every negative May, June, or July in the historical data had a specific external shock behind it:
The current 2026 setup has none of these triggers active. The Iran ceasefire reduces geopolitical tail risk in May. The Fed is on hold and projecting cuts. Trade tensions are declining. The seasonal pattern has a clear runway.
Seasonality is a probability distribution, not a guarantee. The 11-of-11 July win rate is statistically compelling, but the question for any individual retail trader is not whether July will be green on average — it is which stocks, in which weeks, offer the best entry points to capture the seasonal move.
Tickeron's AI Trading Bots and Financial Learning Models answer that question with precision that calendar-based seasonality alone cannot provide. The FLMs integrate seasonal probability data with real-time trend confirmation signals — ensuring that entries are taken when both the seasonal tailwind and the price trend are aligned, and exits are triggered when price diverges from the seasonal pattern before the retail investor typically notices.
DELL AI Trading Agent: +265% annualized return, 82.31% win rate on a 5-minute timeframe — the precision trading instrument for capturing the intraday momentum that characterizes the early days of July's Q2 earnings releases.
Semiconductor Leaders Agent (covering NVDA, AVGO, AMD, TSM, MU): +78.26% annualized return, 60.75% win rate — specifically positioned in the sector with the strongest July seasonal record.
Semiconductor Manufacturing Agent (covering LRCX, TER, AMAT, KLAC, AMKR, ASML): +112.88% annualized, 72.93% win rate.
AI Agents in GGLL, SOXL, TECL: Delivering 215%+ annualized returns — the leveraged ETF agents that are directly positioned in the three most seasonally powerful instruments for a confirmed summer rally environment.
Tickeron's Financial Learning Models (FLMs) — described by CEO Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. as "the next breakthrough in Financial Learning Models — delivering faster cycles, deeper learning, and far more accurate trade execution" — incorporate seasonal probability weighting as one input among dozens. When seasonality, trend direction, sector rotation, and earnings calendar all align simultaneously — as they do in the May–July 2026 window — the FLMs generate their highest-conviction signals.
The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine at
delivers an 80% accuracy rate over a 14-day window — perfectly calibrated for the two-week momentum windows that define each month's strongest seasonal move (historically the first half of July, per E*TRADE's intramonth data).
Explore all active AI Trading Agents at
tickeron.com/app/ai-robots/virtualagents/all/
This report is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Seasonal patterns and historical win rates referenced in this report are based on past market behavior and are not guarantees of future performance. Individual stock and ETF performance may differ materially from historical seasonal averages based on company-specific events, macroeconomic conditions, or geopolitical developments. Past performance of AI trading agents, including annualized return statistics cited in this report, is not indicative of future results. Leveraged ETFs such as SOXL and TECL are not suitable for long-term holding and carry substantial risk of loss. Retail investors should conduct independent due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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