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May 16, 2022

A.I. Stock Market Predictions: Head & Shoulders

Statistics for the Head-and-Shoulders Bottom Pattern

The days where only hedge funds used algorithms to trade stocks are officially over.

Now retail investors can use Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) to find patterns in the markets and to make trades based on ideas generated by algorithms. If the A.I. discovers a pattern and makes a prediction on where the price of a stock is headed, the investor could potentially capitalize (if the A.I. is correct).  

Here’s an example of the algorithm in action:

Late last year, Tickeron’s A.I. discovered a Head-and-Shoulders Bottom Pattern for a stock that everyone knows: Facebook (FB). As you can see in the chart above, the algorithm scanned Facebook’s price movements last summer and followed the price as it formed a Head-and-shoulders Bottom pattern from late August through October 7. The pattern is marked by points 1 through 5. Once FB hit the “Breakout” price of $172.19, Tickeron’s A.I. predicted the price would hit $181.51. If you were a subscriber to this pattern on Tickeron.com, you would have received the A.I.’s prediction right in your inbox! Then it would have been up to you to make a trade based on the predicted target price.

A subscription to Tickeron’s Pattern Search Engine would have also given you access to a Head-and-Shoulders Bottom Pattern for a blockbuster stock that many retail investors own already: Apple Inc. (AAPL). The A.I. would have told you that the breakout price for the stock was $161.02 and that it expected the stock to jump to $172.64.

In just a few days, Apple’s stock did just that, marked by “Success” on the chart below:

How Effective is Tickeron’s A.I.?

Any reasonable investor or trader would say, “Ok, this looks great on paper. But how effective is Tickeron’s A.I. at making these predictions? Where are the statistics?”

See below. In instances where the A.I. was more than 20% confident that the price of the stock would move at least 5% higher to its target price, the A.I. was right more than 58% of the time. That’s a solid metric.

Another solid metric? When Tickeron’s A.I. was right, the average return on the trade was +12.05%:

Statistics for the Head-and-Shoulder (Bullish) Pattern

Ready to Start Trading?

The Head-and-Shoulders (Bullish) pattern is formed when a stock price creates a trough (point 3) with two inverted “shoulders” (1, 5). The pattern is formed when a stock is testing new lows on a downtrend. After reaching the lowest low (the Head, 3) the next low is shallower and the trend reverses course to the upside.

This type of formation happens when investors create a minimum support level for a stock price, and ultimately trading consolidates into an uptrend.  

To trade the pattern, an investor has to watch out for the Breakout Price, which Tickeron’s A.I. will do for you. Once the stock price breaks out from the top pattern boundary (the neckline), day traders and swing traders might consider buying the stock or a call option — hopefully riding it up to the target price.

If pattern trading is new to you, perhaps a great way to get started is through a free trial of Tickeron’s Pattern Search Engine. For 45 days, you can see how the algorithm works and how you can potentially use it to make smarter trades.

For experienced investors still not using algorithms to help you trade, what are you waiting for?! Get started today on tickeron.com.

 

Related Ticker: AAPL

AAPL's MACD Histogram just turned positive

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AAPL turned positive on March 18, 2024. Looking at past instances where AAPL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AAPL's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 44 cases where AAPL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AAPL advanced for three days, in of 339 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

AAPL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 50-day moving average for AAPL moved below the 200-day moving average on March 14, 2024. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AAPL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for AAPL entered a downward trend on March 18, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AAPL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (36.232) is normal, around the industry mean (75.170). P/E Ratio (27.016) is within average values for comparable stocks, (43.040). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.138) is also within normal values, averaging (1.929). AAPL has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.005) as compared to the industry average of (0.024). P/S Ratio (7.077) is also within normal values, averaging (70.780).

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), GoPro (NASDAQ:GPRO).

Industry description

TVs, telephones, washing machines, home speakers and even home-office equipment like computers and printers…the list is virtually endless when it comes to consumer electronics and appliances. And, with ‘smarthomes’ increasingly becoming the reality, we could see a sharp surge in high-tech gadgets (including robotic appliances) making their way into our homes– and therefore spelling plenty opportunities in the related industries. Consumers account for 70% of US GDP, and their purchases of high-functioning electronics could make significant dents in the economy’s health. Sony Corp., Whirlpool and iRobot are some of the major consumer electronics/appliances makers.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Electronics/Appliances Industry is 83.93B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 129.13K to 2.68T. AAPL holds the highest valuation in this group at 2.68T. The lowest valued company is IALS at 129.13K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Electronics/Appliances Industry was 5%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 9%, and the average quarterly price growth was 5%. SNCPF experienced the highest price growth at 52%, while PXDT experienced the biggest fall at -12%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Electronics/Appliances Industry was 61%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 96% and the average quarterly volume growth was 80%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 63
P/E Growth Rating: 57
Price Growth Rating: 53
SMR Rating: 63
Profit Risk Rating: 87
Seasonality Score: 7 (-100 ... +100)
View a ticker or compare two or three
AAPLDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a manufacturer of mobile communication, media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players

Industry ElectronicsAppliances

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Telecommunications Equipment
Address
One Apple Park Way
Phone
+1 408 996-1010
Employees
161000
Web
https://www.apple.com
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AAPL and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AAPL has been loosely correlated with SONY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 36% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AAPL jumps, then SONY could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To AAPL
1D Price
Change %
AAPL100%
+0.63%
SONY - AAPL
36%
Loosely correlated
+1.89%
HEAR - AAPL
34%
Loosely correlated
+8.70%
LPL - AAPL
30%
Poorly correlated
-2.12%
GPRO - AAPL
26%
Poorly correlated
-2.25%
SONO - AAPL
24%
Poorly correlated
-5.26%
More
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