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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
Sep 14, 2020

A Number of Packaged Software Firms Saw Insiders Sell Shares in the Last Few Days

Insider selling and buying is an indicator that probably doesn’t get as much attention as it deserves. It can be a little difficult to keep track of and sometimes the trading is done at specified times due to required holding periods.

One thing is certain though, it can be concerning when you see insider selling at a number of different firms within the same sector. This is exactly what has occurred in the last week with the packaged software industry. Seven different companies from the industry saw significant insider selling over the past week. The dollar amounts of the transactions varied from $1.6 million to as much as $79.7 million.

The group as a whole does very poorly on the Tickeron Scorecard with six of the seven stocks earnings “sell” or “strong sell” ratings. The only stock that scores very well is Intuit (INTU) and it gets a “strong buy” rating. Everbridge (EVBG) is the only one that got a “strong sell” rating, but the other five stocks all earned “sell” ratings.

Looking at both the fundamental and technical screeners, the issues seem to be on both sides of the equation. On the fundamental side, only Intuit has more bullish signals than bearish signals. The company has three bullish and no bearish signals. Conversely, four of the other companies have one bullish signal and two don’t have any bullish signals. If you exclude Intuit, the other six companies have a combined four bullish signals and 22 bearish signals.

The technical picture is a little better, but not by much. Again Intuit is the best of the bunch with three bullish signals and only one bearish signal. Health Catalyst (HCAT) is the only other company with a bullish skew. The company has four bullish signals and two bearish signals. The collective totals of the other five companies are eight bullish signals and 23 bearish signals.

If we look at particular indicators, there are a couple on both the fundamental side and on the technical side that seem to be an issue. On the fundamental side, the Profit Vs. Risk ratings for six of the seven stocks are at 100—the worst possible rating. The only one that scores well? You guessed it, Intuit. The same can be said for the P/E Growth Rating. Six of the seven stocks score a 100 while Intuit has a neutral score.

The technical indicators, as we saw with the overall scores, aren’t as bad as the fundamental indicators. The RSI indicators are concerning with six of the seven stocks generating bearish signals in the last three weeks and five of them coming in the past week. Health Catalyst is the only bullish signal from its RSI and that came eight days ago. The stochastic indicators are somewhat concerning with four bearish signals in the past week and no signals for the other three stocks.

One area that I expected to be an issue was the valuation ratings. From their lows in March, a number of these stocks have seen huge gains, even bigger than some of the other tech stocks. For instance, Livongo Health (LVGO) was up over 500% from March 18 through September 2—before the selling hit the market last week. CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Bill.com Holdings (BILL) both gained around 250% during this same time period. Slack (WORK) gained 86%, Health Catalyst gained 67%, and Intuit gained 58%. Everbridge was the biggest laggard of the bunch during this time period and it still gained 30%.

Since the selling started last Thursday, these stocks have gotten hit pretty hard and the insiders that sold last week are looking pretty good with their timely sales. Again, insider selling isn’t always as simple as the person deciding the price is right and it’s time to sell some of their stake, but when we see widespread selling in an industry, it is usually a pretty bearish sign.

Related Ticker: INTU

Momentum Indicator for INTU turns negative, indicating new downward trend

INTU saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on June 18, 2025. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 94 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 94 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for INTU moved out of overbought territory on June 13, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 33 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 33 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 67 cases where INTU's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for INTU turned negative on June 11, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 56 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 56 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where INTU declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

INTU broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 23, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The 50-day moving average for INTU moved above the 200-day moving average on May 28, 2025. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where INTU advanced for three days, in of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 260 cases where INTU Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. INTU’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (10.593) is normal, around the industry mean (31.816). P/E Ratio (65.347) is within average values for comparable stocks, (164.257). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.392) is also within normal values, averaging (2.724). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (12.019) is also within normal values, averaging (61.826).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL), Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE), Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU), Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER), SERVICENOW (NYSE:NOW), Shopify Inc (NASDAQ:SHOP), Palo Alto Networks Inc (NASDAQ:PANW), CrowdStrike Holdings (NASDAQ:CRWD).

Industry description

Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Packaged Software Industry is 12.78B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 291 to 3.15T. MSFT holds the highest valuation in this group at 3.15T. The lowest valued company is BLGI at 291.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was 2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 6%, and the average quarterly price growth was 48%. CINGF experienced the highest price growth at 345%, while SNTMF experienced the biggest fall at -73%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was 32%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 29% and the average quarterly volume growth was -36%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 53
P/E Growth Rating: 68
Price Growth Rating: 57
SMR Rating: 77
Profit Risk Rating: 87
Seasonality Score: 16 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

a provider of software products for businesses

Industry PackagedSoftware

Profile
Fundamentals
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Industry
Packaged Software
Address
2700 Coast Avenue
Phone
+1 650 944-6000
Employees
18200
Web
https://www.intuit.com
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