Abandon-Baby Top on Goldman Sachs could be a bad sign
Investment banking giant Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) reported first-quarter earnings results on Monday and the results were a disappointment to investors. The company posted earnings of $5.71 per share on revenue of $8.81 billion. Analysts were expecting the company to earn $4.74 per share on revenue of $8.97 billion.
The stock fell 3.82% on the day as investors processed the information. What was really interesting is what the gap lower did to Goldman’s chart. The stock gapped higher on Friday after JPMorgan beat on earnings and revenues as investors expected similar results for Goldman. Instead, the stock gapped lower on Monday and that left Friday’s candle alone—it didn’t touch Thursday’s candle or Monday’s candle.
This pattern is known as an abandon-baby top and it is viewed as a sign of more bearish action going forward.
The overall fundamentals for Goldman are below average in several aspects. The earnings fell by 18% in the first quarter compared to last year’s results and sales were down 2%. Both of those figures are below average.
The company’s return on equity is at 11.6% and that is average to slightly below average. One area where Goldman is above average is its profit margin of 23.8%.
Goldman is also below average on its price performance over the past year. The Relative Price Strength Price Index from Investor’s Business Daily is a 28. This means that 72% of stocks in IBD’s database have outperformed Goldman in the past year.
GS's RSI Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for GS moved out of oversold territory on December 20, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 25 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In of the 25 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 53 cases where GS's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
GS moved above its 50-day moving average on December 20, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GS advanced for three days, in of 328 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
GS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 251 cases where GS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on December 09, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on GS as a result. In of 78 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for GS turned negative on November 29, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GS declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 69, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.270) is normal, around the industry mean (5.562). P/E Ratio (18.081) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.442). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.284) is also within normal values, averaging (2.610). Dividend Yield (0.026) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.091) is also within normal values, averaging (113.078).
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