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Sergey Savastiouk's Avatar
published in Blogs
Mar 15, 2019

Adobe (ADBE, $267.69) beats Q1 estimates, but shows weaker-than-expected guidance for Q2

Adobe Inc. surpassed earnings and revenue estimates for the fiscal first quarter. Its projection for the second quarter, however, falls short of analysts' expectations.

For the three months ended March 1, Adobe reported earnings of $1.71 per share, exceeding analysts’ estimates of $1.62 per share (based on FactSet poll of analysts). The computer software company’s revenue for the quarter came in at a record-high $2.6 billion, topping analysts’ expectations of $2.55 billion .

President and CEO Shantanu Narayen mentioned strong momentum in Adobe’s Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud businesses as significant contributors to Q1 results.

However, Adobe’s guidance for the current quarter (ending June) fell below analysts’ forecasts. Adobe is expecting revenue of $2.7 billion on earnings of $1.77 per share, compared to analysts’ expectation of $2.72 billion on earnings of $1.88 per share.

For the full-year 2019, the company predicts revenue of $11.15 billion and earnings per share of $7.80 per share - in line with Wall Street consensus. 

 

Related Ticker: ADBE

Momentum Indicator for ADBE turns positive, indicating new upward trend

ADBE saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on February 10, 2025. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 83 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 83 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ADBE just turned positive on January 16, 2025. Looking at past instances where ADBE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

ADBE moved above its 50-day moving average on February 11, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADBE advanced for three days, in of 331 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 341 cases where ADBE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for ADBE moved out of overbought territory on February 13, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 55 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 55 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADBE declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

ADBE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 10, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ADBE’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ADBE’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (14.556) is normal, around the industry mean (30.991). P/E Ratio (47.957) is within average values for comparable stocks, (161.030). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.863) is also within normal values, averaging (2.763). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.086) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (11.534) is also within normal values, averaging (58.299).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL), Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE), Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU), Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER), SERVICENOW (NYSE:NOW), Shopify (NYSE:SHOP), Palo Alto Networks Inc (NASDAQ:PANW), CrowdStrike Holdings (NASDAQ:CRWD).

Industry description

Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Packaged Software Industry is 11.99B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 291 to 3.15T. MSFT holds the highest valuation in this group at 3.15T. The lowest valued company is BLGI at 291.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was 2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 7%, and the average quarterly price growth was 33%. GBUX experienced the highest price growth at 178%, while ATDS experienced the biggest fall at -78%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was -2%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 40% and the average quarterly volume growth was 128%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 53
P/E Growth Rating: 71
Price Growth Rating: 52
SMR Rating: 78
Profit Risk Rating: 87
Seasonality Score: -41 (-100 ... +100)
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