Alibaba (BABA, $168.49) records its slowest growth since 2016
E-commerce giant -- and the second most valuable public company in Asia after Tencent -- Alibaba Group’s quarterly report confirmed record slow growth. Third-quarter revenue notched 117.28 billion yuan ($17.47 billion), compared with 83 billion yuan a year earlier — owing to the weakening impact of Chinese economy and a damaging Sino-U.S trade war.
Alibaba’s sales are often considered a benchmark to evaluate consumer spending across the world, and diminishing sales are concerning for investors, as they are proof of the pressures the company is facing.
However, net income rose 33% to 30.96 billion yuan, beating forecasts and sending Alibaba's stock up by about 1.6% in pre-market trade.
Typically, Alibaba’s highest sales come from its biggest online sales event, "Singles' Day," that even surpasses the combined sales figure of U.S.’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. But in 2018, despite the company netting record $30 billion from the Singles' Day, its annual growth dropped to the weakest rate in the event's 10-year history owing to a slowing Chinese economy and trade tensions.
However, Alibaba’s executive vice-chairman, Joe Tsai explained that sales did rise in December and that Chinese customers are less susceptible to external factors like trade tensions impacting their buying decisions. But with the slowing demand for big-ticket items, the company has already lowered its revenue outlook for its financial year ending March even before the top sales season.
In its effort to grow outside of its core e-commerce business, and to win new customers, the company continued to invest heavily in cloud computing, artificial intelligence and online entertainment. The result: revenue from its cloud business rose 84% to 6.6 billion yuan, while sales from its digital entertainment and media business rose 20% to 6.5 billion yuan.
BABA's RSI Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for BABA moved out of oversold territory on September 17, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 24 of the 29 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 42 of 59 cases where BABA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Following a +2.71% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BABA advanced for three days, in 183 of 258 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 01, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BABA as a result. In 59 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BABA turned negative on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 62%.
The 10-day moving average for BABA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BABA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
BABA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for BABA entered a downward trend on September 25, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 57 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.731) is normal, around the industry mean (56.916). P/E Ratio (24.602) is within average values for comparable stocks, (37.255). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.505) is also within normal values, averaging (1.774). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.660) is also within normal values, averaging (1.321).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. BABA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BABA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
an online and mobile commerce company
Industry InternetRetail
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