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Oct 01, 2022

Alibaba(BABA, $79.65) shares get price target cuts

Alibaba Group Holding Limited shares got a price target cuts from JPMorgan Chase & Co and Morgan Stanley analysts who cited sales concerns amidst softening demand conditions.

According to Bloomberg reports on analysts’ views, Alibaba’s sales outlook for the September quarter is dampening on soft China consumption.

JPMorgan slashed its price target for Alibaba to $135 from $145, mentioning that a weakening revenue outlook in the near term that could continue to weigh on the share price. According to JPMorgan, sentiment-driven fund flow is the currently the main driver of share price and revenue recovery will be crucial in guiding market sentiment.

Morgan Stanley cut Alibaba’s share price to $110 from $140, citing weak consumption.

Related Ticker: BABA

BABA in downward trend: 10-day moving average crossed below 50-day moving average on March 27, 2024

The 10-day moving average for BABA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on March 27, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on April 12, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BABA as a result. In of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BABA turned negative on April 15, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

BABA moved below its 50-day moving average on April 12, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BABA declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for BABA entered a downward trend on April 18, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BABA advanced for three days, in of 266 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

BABA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.201) is normal, around the industry mean (3.687). P/E Ratio (12.876) is within average values for comparable stocks, (59.120). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.556) is also within normal values, averaging (1.854). Dividend Yield (0.014) settles around the average of (0.026) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.383) is also within normal values, averaging (10.316).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. BABA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BABA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA), PDD Holdings (NASDAQ:PDD), JD.com (NASDAQ:JD), eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY), Vipshop Holdings Limited (NYSE:VIPS), Chewy (NYSE:CHWY), Wayfair (NYSE:W), Just Eat Takeaway.com NV (OTC:JTKWY), Revolve Group (NYSE:RVLV).

Industry description

The internet retail industry includes companies that sell products and services through the Internet. With more and more consumers using online retailers, the companies have seen a big increase in the use of their services. Some of the companies in the group are focused on selling business-to-business products and services. Others sell business-to-consumer products and services. Internet retailers offer a wide variety of products like books, apparel, and electronics. Some companies even specialize in only one or two categories. One potentially critical factor for players to thrive in this space is the quality and speed of product delivery. This requires an investment in efficient distribution networks. Things like logistics are important factors in the success in the extremely competitive industry. For a company to stay relevant in the industry it must have effective pricing strategies and upgraded websites. The websites must be easy to navigate and engaging for customers. In addition to the revenues generated from straight sales, internet retailers can generate revenue from subscription fees and advertising. Amazon.com, Inc., Alibaba Group, and JD.com are some of the global leaders.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Internet Retail Industry is 30.78B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 30 to 1.86T. AMZN holds the highest valuation in this group at 1.86T. The lowest valued company is YUKA at 30.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Internet Retail Industry was -4%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -5%, and the average quarterly price growth was 37%. KPEA experienced the highest price growth at 199%, while YUKA experienced the biggest fall at -56%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Internet Retail Industry was -4%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 5% and the average quarterly volume growth was -17%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 59
P/E Growth Rating: 71
Price Growth Rating: 60
SMR Rating: 84
Profit Risk Rating: 91
Seasonality Score: -2 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

an online and mobile commerce company

Industry InternetRetail

Profile
Fundamentals
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Industry
Internet Retail
Address
1 Matheson Street, Causeway Bay
Phone
+852 22155100
Employees
235216
Web
https://www.alibabagroup.com
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