Alibaba was China's most valuable company throughout most of 2020, and planned to finish the year with a bang by rolling out its much anticipated Ant Financial IPO. Then Chinese regulators stepped in.
In a crushing blow to both companies, China's top commerce regulator announced an investigation into Alibaba's business practices, alleging the company may be abusing its dominant market position for monopolistic purposes. A few days later, the Chinese central bank (the PBOC) issued a statement criticizing Ant Financial's business practices, ordering the company to focus on its less-lucrative digital-payments business. Alibaba owns one-third of Ant, and both were founded by Jack Ma.
When brings me to the next part of this story - whether China's actions against Alibaba and Ant were tied to the government's disapproval of Jack Ma's recent statements criticizing China's oversight of businesses. Retaliation seems a likely motive for the punitive measures against Alibaba, and Nomura research analysts note that China may also be using Alibaba's case to send a warning shot to other dominant technology companies acting anticompetitively.
Alibaba's shares have plummeted on the news, erasing nearly all of its stock market gains for 2020. It's U.S. counterparts are most closely Amazon and PayPal, and Tickeron's Artificial Intelligence analyzes all three below.
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
BABA moved above its 50-day moving average on July 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In of 46 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 59 cases where BABA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The 10-day moving average for BABA crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on July 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BABA advanced for three days, in of 252 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
BABA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 159 cases where BABA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The 10-day RSI Indicator for BABA moved out of overbought territory on August 11, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 25 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 25 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on August 21, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BABA as a result. In of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BABA turned negative on August 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BABA declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.835) is normal, around the industry mean (29.289). P/E Ratio (27.061) is within average values for comparable stocks, (44.171). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.498) is also within normal values, averaging (1.345). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.079) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.852) is also within normal values, averaging (1.424).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. BABA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BABA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
an online and mobile commerce company
Industry InternetRetail