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Sergey Savastiouk's Avatar
published in Blogs
Jun 04, 2020

American Airlines ( AAL, $14.76) will increase July flights

American Airlines   said it would increase July flights, with lockdown restrictions gradually easing.  

The air carrier  said that  it planned to fly 55% of its domestic schedule and 20% of international flights in July, compared with last year's capacity. 

In June, the company is operating 25% of its domestic schedule. American flew just 20% in May.

“Our July schedule includes the smallest year-over-year capacity reduction since March", said Vasu Raja, senior vice president of network strategy. Raja mentioned “a slow but steady rise in domestic demand”.

Last week, American Airlines said it planned to cut its management and support staff by about -30%.

AAL in +6.66% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on June 03, 2020

As a Bullish sign, keep an eye on this company's ticker for future growth. Considering data from situations where AAL advanced for three days, in 218 of 316 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 69%.

Current price $14.67 crossed the resistance line at $14.24 and is trading between $24.74 support and $14.24 resistance lines. Throughout the month of 05/01/20 - 06/03/20, the price experienced a +11% Uptrend, while the week of 05/27/20 - 06/03/20 shows a -1% Downtrend.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator exceeded the 0 level on May 26, 2020. Traders may consider buying the ticker or exploring call options. In 53 of 77 cases where the ticker's Momentum Indicator exceeded 0, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 69%.

The price moved above its 50-day Moving Average, which indicates a change from a Downtrend to an Uptrend. In 29 of 45 similar backtested cases where AAL's price crossed above its 50-day Moving Average, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 64%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Indicator may be shifting from an Uptrend to a Downtrend. In 40 of 55 cases where AAL's Stochastic indicator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 73%.

The higher Bollinger Band was broken -- a price fall is expected as the ticker heads toward the middle band, which invites the trader to consider selling or shorting the ticker, or exploring put options. In 33 of 42 cases where AAL's price broke its higher Bollinger Band, its price dropped further during the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 79%.

The Aroon Indicator entered a Downtrend today. In 150 of 229 cases where AAL Aroon's Indicator entered a Downtrend, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 66%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 75%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1.63 to 1.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 9 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: AAL's P/B Ratio (-1.90) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.57). AAL has a moderately low P/E Ratio (2.63) as compared to the industry average of (10.78). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.30) is also within normal values, averaging (1.63). Dividend Yield (1.39) settles around the average of (1.04) among similar stocks. AAL's P/S Ratio (0.12) is slightly lower than the industry average of (0.47).

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AAL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AAL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.

Related Ticker: AAL

AAL in downward trend: 10-day moving average moved below 50-day moving average on May 29, 2024

The 10-day moving average for AAL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on May 29, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AAL turned negative on May 21, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

AAL moved below its 50-day moving average on May 21, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 50-day moving average for AAL moved below the 200-day moving average on June 11, 2024. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AAL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 11 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 16 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 13, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AAL as a result. In of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AAL advanced for three days, in of 296 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

AAL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 174 cases where AAL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (16.261). P/E Ratio (16.127) is within average values for comparable stocks, (48.997). AAL's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.290) is slightly lower than the industry average of (0.769). AAL has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.033). P/S Ratio (0.155) is also within normal values, averaging (2.155).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AAL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AAL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL), United Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ:UAL), Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE:LUV), American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL), JetBlue Airways Corp (NASDAQ:JBLU).

Industry description

Airlines industry comprises passenger air transportation, including scheduled and non-scheduled routes. This can include charter airlines, as well as regular commuter ones. Discount pricing and the rise of low-cost carriers over recent decades have expanded the industry by making its services accessible to a much larger global population, compared to the older days when airline travel was a relative luxury for many people in the world. Delta Air Lines Inc., Southwest Airlines Co and United Continental Holdings, Inc. are some of the airlines with the largest stock market capitalizations in the U.S.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Airlines Industry is 5.72B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 9.36K to 32.38B. DAL holds the highest valuation in this group at 32.38B. The lowest valued company is KLMR at 9.36K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Airlines Industry was -3%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -5%, and the average quarterly price growth was 75%. NRSAF experienced the highest price growth at 16%, while CAJTF experienced the biggest fall at -74%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Airlines Industry was -14%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -18% and the average quarterly volume growth was -51%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 59
P/E Growth Rating: 70
Price Growth Rating: 55
SMR Rating: 74
Profit Risk Rating: 93
Seasonality Score: -22 (-100 ... +100)
Related Portfolios: TRAVEL INDUSTRY
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A.I.Advisor
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A.I. Advisor
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General Information

a provider of air transportation services for passengers and cargo

Industry Airlines

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Airlines
Address
1 Skyview Drive
Phone
+1 682 278-9000
Employees
132100
Web
https://www.aa.com
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