American Airlines (AAL) hits trend line again, gets another bearish signal
Back on May 8, I wrote a bearish article on American Airlines (NYSE: AAL). I cited a downward sloped trend line, a bearish crossover from the daily stochastic readings, and a bearish signal from the Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine as the reasons for the bearish posture.
The stock was trading just under $34 at the time of that blog entry and it would eventually fall to $27. The stock has since rallied back, but it is running into the same downward sloped trend line again.
We see that the daily stochastic readings just made a bearish crossover, just as they did in early May. The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine just generated another bearish signal as well. This signal came on June 17 and it showed a confidence level of 69%. Previous predictions on American Airlines have been successful 79% of the time. This signal calls for a decline of at least 4% over the next month.
American’s fundamentals are part of the reason for the downward trend. The company’s earnings have declined by 18% per year over the last three years. Earnings fell by 30% in the most recent quarter. Sales have barely increased at all, increasing by only 4% per year.
The company’s return on equity is neutral right now and the profit margin is below average at 6.3%.
AAL sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for AAL moved above the 200-day moving average on June 22, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AAL advanced for three days, in of 282 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 244 cases where AAL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for AAL moved out of overbought territory on July 07, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 28 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on July 09, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AAL as a result. In of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AAL turned negative on July 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
AAL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 24, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. AAL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: AAL's P/B Ratio (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (3.414). AAL has a moderately high P/E Ratio (54.677) as compared to the industry average of (21.426). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.645) is also within normal values, averaging (2.981). AAL has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.018). P/S Ratio (0.200) is also within normal values, averaging (0.659).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AAL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 73, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a provider of air transportation services for passengers and cargo
Industry Airlines
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