American Eagle Outfitters (AEO, $16.27) beats Q2 earnings estimates, but lags in same-store sales growth
American Eagle Outfitters raked in stronger-than-expected second quarter earnings. However, the clothing & accessories retailer’s comparable sales growth came in lower than anticipated.
The company’s adjusted earnings for the three months ending on August 3 came in at 39 cents, up from the year-ago quarter’s 34 cents and higher than the Street estimate of 32 cents.
Group revenues increased +8% to $1.04 billion, slightly ahead of analysts’ expectation of $1 billion.
While American Eagle’s same-store sales climbed +2% from last year, the growth rate fell short of Wall Street forecasts of just over 3%. CEO Jay Schottenstein cited under-performance in certain seasonal categories and a delayed start to back-to-school shopping as challenges in the quarter. But he also emphasized on the company’s 18th consecutive quarter of positive consolidated comparable sales growth.
The company's forecast for its third quarter 2019 earnings per share is between 47 cents and 49 cents, which is a lower range compared to Refinitiv forecast of 52 cents per share.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for AEO turns positive, indicating new upward trend
AEO saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on September 24, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 81 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 64 of the 81 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AEO just turned positive on September 23, 2026. Looking at past instances where AEO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
AEO moved above its 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AEO crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Following a +9.41% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AEO advanced for three days, in 205 of 293 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for AEO moved out of overbought territory on September 30, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 22 of the 29 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 76%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AEO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
AEO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for AEO entered a downward trend on September 16, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 11 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.644) is normal, around the industry mean (3.366). P/E Ratio (8.923) is within average values for comparable stocks, (154.317). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.100) is also within normal values, averaging (0.517). Dividend Yield (0.029) settles around the average of (0.013) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.447) is also within normal values, averaging (0.652).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AEO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AEO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
an operator of specialty retail stores
Industry ApparelFootwearRetail
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