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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
Jun 03, 2019

American International Group runs into resistance at its 104-week moving average

After rallying almost 50% from its December low, American International Group (NYSE: AIG) seems to have hit resistance at its 104-week moving average. Looking at the weekly chart we see how the stock moved sharply higher in the last month but turned lower in the past week after hitting the trend line. The stock found support at the 104-week in 2017 but then dropped below it in early 2018.

It may seem a little unorthodox to use a 104-week moving average, but I use it with a 13-week and a 52-week to get moving averages for one quarter, one year, and two years.

We see that the stock was tremendously overbought based on the 10-week RSI and according to the weekly stochastic readings.

Looking at the Tickeron overview for AIG, we see there are a couple of technical factors that are also indicating that a move lower is likely. The weekly MACD crossed below the signal line and in 39 of 50 previous instances, the downward trend continued.

We also see that the momentum indicator turned negative on May 31. In 60 of 81 previous instances where this occurred, the price of the stock fell further.

The fundamentals for AIG leave something to be desired. The earnings have been flat over the last three years while sales have declined at a rate of 5% per year during the same timeframe. The return on equity is a paltry 1.8% and the profit margin is only 3.0%.

Related Ticker: AIG

AIG in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on June 11, 2024

AIG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In of 39 cases where AIG's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AIG's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 18 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 51 cases where AIG's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 24, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AIG as a result. In of 92 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AIG just turned positive on June 24, 2024. Looking at past instances where AIG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AIG advanced for three days, in of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

AIG moved below its 50-day moving average on June 04, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for AIG crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on June 11, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AIG declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for AIG entered a downward trend on June 24, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 87%.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 60, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AIG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.178) is normal, around the industry mean (2.420). P/E Ratio (15.590) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.035). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (6.024). AIG has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.019) as compared to the industry average of (0.051). P/S Ratio (1.192) is also within normal values, averaging (1.473).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are American International Group (NYSE:AIG).

Industry description

A multi-line insurance contract bundles together exposures to risk and covers them under a single contract. For providers of such policies, the bundle is a potential risk diversification strategy since their exposure gets spread over several factors, which helps them mitigate a financial burden if a catastrophic event were to occur. Other potential benefits include getting more premiums from including more than one type of insurance in a bundle, and getting a competitive edge by procuring multiple insurance contracts with a customer. Examples of companies in this industry are Berkshire Hathaway (which owns several insurance companies), Chubb Limited, American International Group, Inc. and Sun Life Financial Inc.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Multi-Line Insurance Industry is 21.01B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 218.88K to 634.15B. BRK.A holds the highest valuation in this group at 634.15B. The lowest valued company is ESGRP at 218.88K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Multi-Line Insurance Industry was 2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -2%, and the average quarterly price growth was 8%. TPDKY experienced the highest price growth at 22%, while MPFRF experienced the biggest fall at -15%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Multi-Line Insurance Industry was 150%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 160% and the average quarterly volume growth was 253%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 37
P/E Growth Rating: 53
Price Growth Rating: 49
SMR Rating: 89
Profit Risk Rating: 59
Seasonality Score: -12 (-100 ... +100)
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AIGDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a global insurance company, which provides property casualty insurance, life insurance, retirement products, mortgage insurance and other financial services

Industry MultiLineInsurance

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Multi Line Insurance
Address
1271 Avenue of the Americas
Phone
+1 212 770-7000
Employees
26200
Web
https://www.aig.com
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