Apple Could Find Support at a Long-Term Moving Average, but a Bounce Could Hit Trouble
Over the last decade or so, Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) has become one of the biggest bellwether stocks for the overall market and especially for the tech sector. In the last two months, the stock has fallen over 25% from its October 1 high. This development is part of the reason investors are nervous about the stock, the tech sector, and the overall market.
There could be some good news for the stock from a technical perspective. For the first time in a couple of years, the stock’s 104-week moving average is coming in to play. We saw a similar pattern develop in mid-2015 when the stock dropped down below the moving average, but didn’t close a week below it.
The unfortunate side of that development was that when the stock did bounce back, the 52-week moving average acted as resistance on its first attempt at a rebound. After hitting the 52-week, the stock dropped again from November ’15 through February ’16.
After that dip it made another attempt to rebound and once again the 52-week moving average stopped the rally in April ’16.
Apple’s fundamentals are still really good, but the earnings growth has slowed in recent years. The company’s annual earnings have averaged 8% over the last three years while sales have grown at 4% per year over that same period.
The real strengths are in the profitability measurements with a return on equity of 49.4% and a profit margin of 27.4%.
Overall I see a mixed picture for Apple. The technical picture suggests we could see a short-lived bounce that gets halted by the 52-week moving average. The fundamentals are good, but the earnings and sales growth rates have slowed in recent years.
Contributor
Harry Richardson — Algorithmic Trader & Strategy Developer Harry is an algorithmic trader specializing in impulse and breakout trading strategies across cryptocurrency and equity markets. With more than 10 years of experience in developing automated trading systems, he focuses on building structured algorithms designed to capture momentum while maintaining strict risk control. His approach combines quantitative analysis, real-market execution, and continuous performance monitoring. Vitalii prioritizes risk management, drawdown control, and strategy stability over short-term optimization, ensuring algorithms are adaptable to changing market conditions. He has developed and tested hundreds of automated strategies, working extensively with live trading environments, forward testing, and portfolio-level algorithm management. His work centers on transforming trading ideas into fully operational, scalable automated systems.
Momentum Indicator for AAPL turns positive, indicating new upward trend
AAPL saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on August 24, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 64 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 45 of the 64 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AAPL just turned positive on August 26, 2026. Looking at past instances where AAPL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
AAPL moved above its 50-day moving average on September 10, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AAPL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on August 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Following a +5.37% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AAPL advanced for three days, in 231 of 353 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 201 of 305 cases where AAPL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 66%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 31 of 62 cases where AAPL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AAPL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
AAPL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 01, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. AAPL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: AAPL's P/B Ratio (45.045) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (5.994). P/E Ratio (38.104) is within average values for comparable stocks, (115.156). AAPL's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.607) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.418). Dividend Yield (0.003) settles around the average of (4.670) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.515) is also within normal values, averaging (4.373).
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
a manufacturer of mobile communication, media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players
Industry ComputerPeripherals
Advertisement