GET DAILY SIGNALSAres Management (ARES): Q1 2026 Earnings Preview – EPS Seen Rising +21.8% on Record AUM
Key Takeaways
- Consensus EPS estimate stands at $1.33 for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, reflecting a 21.8% year-over-year increase from $1.09.
- Revenue expectations hover around $1.11 billion, driven by expanding assets under management (AUM).
- AUM reached a record $623 billion as of December 31, 2025, up 29% from the prior year.
- Ares has delivered mixed results recently, beating EPS estimates in two of the last four quarters.
- Investors are focused on fee-related earnings (FRE, a key profitability metric excluding volatile performance fees) and fundraising momentum.
- Record $113 billion raised in 2025 underscores strong demand for Ares' private credit and equity strategies.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Ares Management Corporation (ARES), a global leader in alternative investments, oversees $623 billion in AUM across private credit, private equity, and real estate. This earnings report for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, feels pivotal to me because it will test the sustainability of fee revenue growth in a still-favorable environment for private markets. With interest rates stabilizing and demand for yield-enhancing assets on the rise, ARES's success in deploying capital and attracting inflows could point to the broader health of the industry. The recent record fundraising and AUM expansion demonstrate real operational strength, which makes this release essential for anyone evaluating long-term compounding through stable management fees rather than volatile performance income.
Earnings Expectations
Analysts are projecting EPS of $1.33 for Q1 2026, up from $1.09 in the year-ago quarter, drawing from estimates by 14 analysts. Revenue consensus sits at $1.11 billion from four analysts, bolstered by AUM growth and deployment activity. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry, and Zacks has EPS pegged slightly higher at $1.34.
Looking back, ARES has shown variability: Q1 2025 EPS beat ($1.09 vs. $0.94 est.), Q2 missed ($1.03 vs. $1.09), Q3 beat ($1.19 vs. $1.14), and Q4 missed ($1.45 vs. $1.69). One thing that stands out is the need to watch key metrics like FRE per share, management fees, and performance revenues, which can fluctuate with realizations. Investors will likely get updates on the fundraising pipeline and capital deployment, particularly in private credit where ARES holds a strong position. No specific company guidance came last quarter, but the full-year growth outlook remains optimistic at 27.9% EPS expansion.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Heading into earnings, sentiment around ARES strikes me as cautiously optimistic, supported by record AUM and fundraising yet checked by the Q4 2025 EPS miss that caused a nearly 7% stock drop. The shares have ridden the alternative asset boom, though volatility in performance fees remains a risk. Key factors like surprises in FRE growth or guidance could drive reactions, especially given how historical beats in core metrics have amplified moves.
Tools I Use: Tickeron’s AI Screener
One tool I rely on regularly for this kind of analysis is Tickeron’s AI Screener, an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery platform. It lets me filter thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable criteria like industry, market cap, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics, helping spot trade ideas, trending stocks, or breakout candidates far more efficiently than manual methods. From what I see, it’s a practical way to enhance my investment strategy without getting bogged down in spreadsheets.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
After Q1 results, I’ll be tracking management’s full-year guidance closely, especially on fee revenue trajectory and AUM expansion. ARES's record fundraising in 2025 sets it up well for steady inflows, but sustained deployment in a competitive private markets landscape will be crucial. I’m also watching Tickeron’s AI Trend Prediction Engine for signals on momentum here.
Private credit continues as a bright spot, drawing institutional capital with its higher yields. Keep an eye on portfolio performance, unrealized marks, and cost management, since margin pressures from compensation could affect profitability.
Broader factors like interest rate paths and regulatory shifts in alternatives will shape the outlook. Upcoming catalysts might include secondary fundraising announcements and peer comparisons in asset management. For long-term insights, I focus on recurring revenue stability over one-off performance fees.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
ARES in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026
The 10-day moving average for ARES crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 14 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ARES as a result. In 78 of 97 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ARES just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where ARES's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
ARES moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +4.31% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ARES advanced for three days, in 253 of 333 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ARES declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
ARES broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ARES entered a downward trend on October 26, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ARES’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ARES's P/B Ratio (11.692) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.440). P/E Ratio (59.142) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.350). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.879) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.042) settles around the average of (0.267) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.623) is also within normal values, averaging (15.694).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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