Ares Management (ARES): Q1 2026 Earnings Preview – EPS Seen Rising +21.8% on Record AUM
Key Takeaways
- Consensus EPS estimate stands at $1.33 for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, reflecting a 21.8% year-over-year increase from $1.09.
- Revenue expectations hover around $1.11 billion, driven by expanding assets under management (AUM).
- AUM reached a record $623 billion as of December 31, 2025, up 29% from the prior year.
- Ares has delivered mixed results recently, beating EPS estimates in two of the last four quarters.
- Investors are focused on fee-related earnings (FRE, a key profitability metric excluding volatile performance fees) and fundraising momentum.
- Record $113 billion raised in 2025 underscores strong demand for Ares' private credit and equity strategies.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Ares Management Corporation (ARES), a global leader in alternative investments, oversees $623 billion in AUM across private credit, private equity, and real estate. This earnings report for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, feels pivotal to me because it will test the sustainability of fee revenue growth in a still-favorable environment for private markets. With interest rates stabilizing and demand for yield-enhancing assets on the rise, ARES's success in deploying capital and attracting inflows could point to the broader health of the industry. The recent record fundraising and AUM expansion demonstrate real operational strength, which makes this release essential for anyone evaluating long-term compounding through stable management fees rather than volatile performance income.
Earnings Expectations
Analysts are projecting EPS of $1.33 for Q1 2026, up from $1.09 in the year-ago quarter, drawing from estimates by 14 analysts. Revenue consensus sits at $1.11 billion from four analysts, bolstered by AUM growth and deployment activity. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry, and Zacks has EPS pegged slightly higher at $1.34.
Looking back, ARES has shown variability: Q1 2025 EPS beat ($1.09 vs. $0.94 est.), Q2 missed ($1.03 vs. $1.09), Q3 beat ($1.19 vs. $1.14), and Q4 missed ($1.45 vs. $1.69). One thing that stands out is the need to watch key metrics like FRE per share, management fees, and performance revenues, which can fluctuate with realizations. Investors will likely get updates on the fundraising pipeline and capital deployment, particularly in private credit where ARES holds a strong position. No specific company guidance came last quarter, but the full-year growth outlook remains optimistic at 27.9% EPS expansion.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Heading into earnings, sentiment around ARES strikes me as cautiously optimistic, supported by record AUM and fundraising yet checked by the Q4 2025 EPS miss that caused a nearly 7% stock drop. The shares have ridden the alternative asset boom, though volatility in performance fees remains a risk. Key factors like surprises in FRE growth or guidance could drive reactions, especially given how historical beats in core metrics have amplified moves.
Tools I Use: Tickeron’s AI Screener
One tool I rely on regularly for this kind of analysis is Tickeron’s AI Screener, an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery platform. It lets me filter thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable criteria like industry, market cap, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics, helping spot trade ideas, trending stocks, or breakout candidates far more efficiently than manual methods. From what I see, it’s a practical way to enhance my investment strategy without getting bogged down in spreadsheets.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
After Q1 results, I’ll be tracking management’s full-year guidance closely, especially on fee revenue trajectory and AUM expansion. ARES's record fundraising in 2025 sets it up well for steady inflows, but sustained deployment in a competitive private markets landscape will be crucial. I’m also watching Tickeron’s AI Trend Prediction Engine for signals on momentum here.
Private credit continues as a bright spot, drawing institutional capital with its higher yields. Keep an eye on portfolio performance, unrealized marks, and cost management, since margin pressures from compensation could affect profitability.
Broader factors like interest rate paths and regulatory shifts in alternatives will shape the outlook. Upcoming catalysts might include secondary fundraising announcements and peer comparisons in asset management. For long-term insights, I focus on recurring revenue stability over one-off performance fees.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
ARES in -4.16% downward trend, sliding for three consecutive days on June 26, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where ARES declined for three days, in of 269 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on June 23, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ARES as a result. In of 92 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ARES turned negative on June 18, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
ARES moved below its 50-day moving average on June 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ARES advanced for three days, in of 354 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
ARES may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 295 cases where ARES Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (11.062) is normal, around the industry mean (4.328). P/E Ratio (58.018) is within average values for comparable stocks, (25.638). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.031) is also within normal values, averaging (1.361). Dividend Yield (0.039) settles around the average of (0.094) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.710) is also within normal values, averaging (17.351).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ARES’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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