Ares Management (ARES): Q1 2026 Earnings Preview – EPS Seen Rising +21.8% on Record AUM
Key Takeaways
- Consensus EPS estimate stands at $1.33 for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, reflecting a 21.8% year-over-year increase from $1.09.
- Revenue expectations hover around $1.11 billion, driven by expanding assets under management (AUM).
- AUM reached a record $623 billion as of December 31, 2025, up 29% from the prior year.
- Ares has delivered mixed results recently, beating EPS estimates in two of the last four quarters.
- Investors are focused on fee-related earnings (FRE, a key profitability metric excluding volatile performance fees) and fundraising momentum.
- Record $113 billion raised in 2025 underscores strong demand for Ares' private credit and equity strategies.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Ares Management Corporation (ARES), a global leader in alternative investments, oversees $623 billion in AUM across private credit, private equity, and real estate. This earnings report for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, feels pivotal to me because it will test the sustainability of fee revenue growth in a still-favorable environment for private markets. With interest rates stabilizing and demand for yield-enhancing assets on the rise, ARES's success in deploying capital and attracting inflows could point to the broader health of the industry. The recent record fundraising and AUM expansion demonstrate real operational strength, which makes this release essential for anyone evaluating long-term compounding through stable management fees rather than volatile performance income.
Earnings Expectations
Analysts are projecting EPS of $1.33 for Q1 2026, up from $1.09 in the year-ago quarter, drawing from estimates by 14 analysts. Revenue consensus sits at $1.11 billion from four analysts, bolstered by AUM growth and deployment activity. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry, and Zacks has EPS pegged slightly higher at $1.34.
Looking back, ARES has shown variability: Q1 2025 EPS beat ($1.09 vs. $0.94 est.), Q2 missed ($1.03 vs. $1.09), Q3 beat ($1.19 vs. $1.14), and Q4 missed ($1.45 vs. $1.69). One thing that stands out is the need to watch key metrics like FRE per share, management fees, and performance revenues, which can fluctuate with realizations. Investors will likely get updates on the fundraising pipeline and capital deployment, particularly in private credit where ARES holds a strong position. No specific company guidance came last quarter, but the full-year growth outlook remains optimistic at 27.9% EPS expansion.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Heading into earnings, sentiment around ARES strikes me as cautiously optimistic, supported by record AUM and fundraising yet checked by the Q4 2025 EPS miss that caused a nearly 7% stock drop. The shares have ridden the alternative asset boom, though volatility in performance fees remains a risk. Key factors like surprises in FRE growth or guidance could drive reactions, especially given how historical beats in core metrics have amplified moves.
Tools I Use: Tickeron’s AI Screener
One tool I rely on regularly for this kind of analysis is Tickeron’s AI Screener, an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery platform. It lets me filter thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable criteria like industry, market cap, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics, helping spot trade ideas, trending stocks, or breakout candidates far more efficiently than manual methods. From what I see, it’s a practical way to enhance my investment strategy without getting bogged down in spreadsheets.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
After Q1 results, I’ll be tracking management’s full-year guidance closely, especially on fee revenue trajectory and AUM expansion. ARES's record fundraising in 2025 sets it up well for steady inflows, but sustained deployment in a competitive private markets landscape will be crucial. I’m also watching Tickeron’s AI Trend Prediction Engine for signals on momentum here.
Private credit continues as a bright spot, drawing institutional capital with its higher yields. Keep an eye on portfolio performance, unrealized marks, and cost management, since margin pressures from compensation could affect profitability.
Broader factors like interest rate paths and regulatory shifts in alternatives will shape the outlook. Upcoming catalysts might include secondary fundraising announcements and peer comparisons in asset management. For long-term insights, I focus on recurring revenue stability over one-off performance fees.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
ARES's RSI Indicator peaks and leaves overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ARES moved out of overbought territory on August 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In of the 46 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 63 cases where ARES's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ARES turned negative on August 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ARES declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
ARES broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on August 19, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ARES as a result. In of 93 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
ARES moved above its 50-day moving average on July 24, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ARES crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on July 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ARES advanced for three days, in of 349 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 283 cases where ARES Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ARES's P/B Ratio (12.706) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.525). ARES has a moderately high P/E Ratio (64.794) as compared to the industry average of (27.186). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.334) is also within normal values, averaging (1.208). Dividend Yield (0.035) settles around the average of (0.086) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.258) is also within normal values, averaging (16.512).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ARES’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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