ASML vs. KLAC vs. AMAT: Q4 2025 Earnings Recap Highlights AI-Driven Demand
Key Takeaways
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ASML reported Q4 2025 net sales of €9.7 billion, gross margin of 52.2%, net income of €2.8 billion, and record net bookings of €13.2 billion, including €7.4 billion in EUV orders.
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Full-year 2025 net sales reached €32.7 billion, up roughly 16% year over year. ASML guided 2026 revenue to €34–39 billion with gross margins of 51–53%.
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KLA Corp. (KLAC) posted Q1 FY2026 revenue of $3.21 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $8.81, beating expectations. Q2 FY2026 results are due January 29, with consensus estimates of $3.26 billion in revenue and $8.82 EPS.
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Applied Materials (AMAT) delivered Q4 FY2025 revenue of $6.80 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.17, while full-year revenue reached a record $28.37 billion. Q1 FY2026 guidance calls for roughly $6.85 billion in revenue and $2.18 EPS.
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All three equipment leaders are benefiting from AI-driven semiconductor demand, though China-related export restrictions remain a shared risk.
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ASML leads in growth and technology dominance, KLAC stands out on margins, and AMAT offers stability through its services business.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
ASML’s Q4 2025 results, released on January 28, 2026, capped a record-setting year defined by surging bookings tied to artificial intelligence and advanced-node chip production. As the sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography tools, ASML occupies a critical bottleneck position in the global semiconductor supply chain.
Comparing ASML with KLA and Applied Materials provides insight into how different segments of the $100+ billion wafer fab equipment (WFE) market are performing. While all three benefit from expanding foundry and AI-related capital spending—particularly from leaders like TSMC—their exposure to China, margins, and product mixes differ meaningfully. These distinctions shape investor expectations around growth, resilience, and risk as the industry heads into 2026.
ASML: Earnings Recap
ASML exceeded the high end of prior guidance in Q4, reporting €9.7 billion in net sales, 52.2% gross margin, and €2.8 billion in net income. For full-year 2025, revenue totaled €32.7 billion, up 16% year over year, with gross margin of 52.8% and net income of €9.6 billion. Basic diluted EPS reached €24.73.
The headline figure was Q4 net bookings of €13.2 billion, more than double market expectations, with EUV accounting for €7.4 billion. This surge underscores strong demand for leading-edge logic and AI chips. Looking ahead, ASML guided 2026 revenue to €34–39 billion, implying up to 19% growth, and reaffirmed gross margin targets of 51–53%. Management noted that China could represent roughly 20% of 2026 revenue, a key risk factor despite strong global demand.
KLA Corp. (KLAC): Earnings and Outlook
KLA will report Q2 FY2026 results after the close on January 29, 2026. Consensus forecasts call for $3.26 billion in revenue and $8.82 in non-GAAP EPS, representing mid-single-digit year-over-year growth.
In Q1 FY2026, KLA delivered $3.21 billion in revenue, up 13% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS of $8.81, comfortably beating expectations. Results were driven by strong demand in advanced packaging, AI logic, and DRAM, with non-GAAP gross margins near 62%. While management acknowledged near-term risks tied to China restrictions, KLA expects to outperform the broader WFE market over the long term due to its leadership in process control and yield management.
Applied Materials (AMAT): Earnings and Outlook
Applied Materials is scheduled to report Q1 FY2026 earnings on February 12, 2026. Consensus expectations center on EPS of approximately $2.20.
In Q4 FY2025, AMAT posted $6.80 billion in revenue, down 3% year over year but above expectations, along with non-GAAP EPS of $2.17 and GAAP EPS of $2.38. Full-year revenue reached a record $28.37 billion, up 4%, while non-GAAP EPS rose 9% to $9.42. The company’s services segment—about 30% of total revenue—continued to provide stability, while systems demand benefited from AI-related investments. China revenue declined to 29%, reflecting export controls.
For Q1 FY2026, AMAT guided revenue to $6.85 billion ± $0.5 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.18 ± $0.20, with management signaling stronger growth in the second half of fiscal 2026 as logic and DRAM spending recovers.
Head-to-Head Comparison
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Growth leadership: ASML stands apart, with record bookings and a near-monopoly in EUV lithography.
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Profitability: KLA leads on margins, supported by its high-value process control portfolio.
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Stability: Applied Materials benefits from a diversified revenue base and recurring services income.
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Risks: All three face headwinds from U.S.–China trade restrictions, with China exposure ranging from roughly 20–30% of revenue.
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Catalysts: Rising AI-driven capital expenditures, including potential $50+ billion annual capex at leading foundries, underpin sector optimism for 2026.
AI-Based Market View
Tickeron AI Perspective
Tickeron’s AI-driven models currently assign ASML the highest probability of outperformance over the next 6–12 months, supported by record bookings, strong 2026 guidance, and its unmatched EUV position in the AI supply chain. KLA offers defensive appeal through superior margins, while Applied Materials provides diversification and steadier cash flows as the semiconductor cycle evolves.
Disclaimers and Limitations
Aroon Indicator for ASML shows an upward move is likely
ASML's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on February 06, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 256 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In of the 256 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ASML advanced for three days, in of 311 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ASML moved out of overbought territory on January 30, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 40 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 40 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on February 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ASML as a result. In of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ASML turned negative on February 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ASML declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to good earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ASML’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (23.474) is normal, around the industry mean (10.091). P/E Ratio (47.935) is within average values for comparable stocks, (280.220). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.291) is also within normal values, averaging (2.247). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.008) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (14.104) is also within normal values, averaging (39.190).
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General Information
a manufacturer of technology systems for the semiconductor industry
Industry ElectronicProductionEquipment
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