ASML vs. KLAC vs. AMAT: Q4 2025 Earnings Recap Highlights AI-Driven Demand

Key Takeaways

• ASML reported Q4 2025 net sales of €9.7 billion, gross margin of 52.2%, net income of €2.8 billion, and record net bookings of €13.2 billion, including €7.4 billion in EUV orders.

• Full-year 2025 net sales reached €32.7 billion, up roughly 16% year over year. ASML guided 2026 revenue to €34–39 billion with gross margins of 51–53%.

• KLA Corp. (KLAC) posted Q1 FY2026 revenue of $3.21 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $8.81, beating expectations. Q2 FY2026 results are due January 29, with consensus estimates of $3.26 billion in revenue and $8.82 EPS.

• Applied Materials (AMAT) delivered Q4 FY2025 revenue of $6.80 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.17, while full-year revenue reached a record $28.37 billion. Q1 FY2026 guidance calls for roughly $6.85 billion in revenue and $2.18 EPS.

• All three equipment leaders are benefiting from AI-driven semiconductor demand, though China-related export restrictions remain a shared risk.

• ASML leads in growth and technology dominance, KLAC stands out on margins, and AMAT offers stability through its services business.

Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters

ASML’s Q4 2025 results, released on January 28, 2026, capped a record-setting year defined by surging bookings tied to artificial intelligence and advanced-node chip production. As the sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography tools, ASML occupies a critical bottleneck position in the global semiconductor supply chain.

Comparing ASML with KLA and Applied Materials provides insight into how different segments of the $100+ billion wafer fab equipment (WFE) market are performing. While all three benefit from expanding foundry and AI-related capital spending—particularly from leaders like TSMC—their exposure to China, margins, and product mixes differ meaningfully. These distinctions shape investor expectations around growth, resilience, and risk as the industry heads into 2026.

ASML: Earnings Recap

ASML exceeded the high end of prior guidance in Q4, reporting €9.7 billion in net sales, 52.2% gross margin, and €2.8 billion in net income. For full-year 2025, revenue totaled €32.7 billion, up 16% year over year, with gross margin of 52.8% and net income of €9.6 billion. Basic diluted EPS reached €24.73.

The headline figure was Q4 net bookings of €13.2 billion, more than double market expectations, with EUV accounting for €7.4 billion. This surge underscores strong demand for leading-edge logic and AI chips. Looking ahead, ASML guided 2026 revenue to €34–39 billion, implying up to 19% growth, and reaffirmed gross margin targets of 51–53%. Management noted that China could represent roughly 20% of 2026 revenue, a key risk factor despite strong global demand.

KLA Corp. (KLAC): Earnings and Outlook

KLA will report Q2 FY2026 results after the close on January 29, 2026. Consensus forecasts call for $3.26 billion in revenue and $8.82 in non-GAAP EPS, representing mid-single-digit year-over-year growth.

In Q1 FY2026, KLA delivered $3.21 billion in revenue, up 13% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS of $8.81, comfortably beating expectations. Results were driven by strong demand in advanced packaging, AI logic, and DRAM, with non-GAAP gross margins near 62%. While management acknowledged near-term risks tied to China restrictions, KLA expects to outperform the broader WFE market over the long term due to its leadership in process control and yield management.

Applied Materials (AMAT): Earnings and Outlook

Applied Materials is scheduled to report Q1 FY2026 earnings on February 12, 2026. Consensus expectations center on EPS of approximately $2.20.

In Q4 FY2025, AMAT posted $6.80 billion in revenue, down 3% year over year but above expectations, along with non-GAAP EPS of $2.17 and GAAP EPS of $2.38. Full-year revenue reached a record $28.37 billion, up 4%, while non-GAAP EPS rose 9% to $9.42. The company’s services segment—about 30% of total revenue—continued to provide stability, while systems demand benefited from AI-related investments. China revenue declined to 29%, reflecting export controls.

For Q1 FY2026, AMAT guided revenue to $6.85 billion ± $0.5 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.18 ± $0.20, with management signaling stronger growth in the second half of fiscal 2026 as logic and DRAM spending recovers.

Head-to-Head Comparison

• Growth leadership: ASML stands apart, with record bookings and a near-monopoly in EUV lithography.

• Profitability: KLA leads on margins, supported by its high-value process control portfolio.

• Stability: Applied Materials benefits from a diversified revenue base and recurring services income.

• Risks: All three face headwinds from U.S.–China trade restrictions, with China exposure ranging from roughly 20–30% of revenue.

• Catalysts: Rising AI-driven capital expenditures, including potential $50+ billion annual capex at leading foundries, underpin sector optimism for 2026.

AI-Based Market View

Tickeron AI Perspective

Tickeron’s AI-driven models currently assign ASML the highest probability of outperformance over the next 6–12 months, supported by record bookings, strong 2026 guidance, and its unmatched EUV position in the AI supply chain. KLA offers defensive appeal through superior margins, while Applied Materials provides diversification and steadier cash flows as the semiconductor cycle evolves.

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