ASML vs. KLAC vs. AMAT: Q4 2025 Earnings Recap Highlights AI-Driven Demand
Key Takeaways
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ASML reported Q4 2025 net sales of €9.7 billion, gross margin of 52.2%, net income of €2.8 billion, and record net bookings of €13.2 billion, including €7.4 billion in EUV orders.
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Full-year 2025 net sales reached €32.7 billion, up roughly 16% year over year. ASML guided 2026 revenue to €34–39 billion with gross margins of 51–53%.
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KLA Corp. (KLAC) posted Q1 FY2026 revenue of $3.21 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $8.81, beating expectations. Q2 FY2026 results are due January 29, with consensus estimates of $3.26 billion in revenue and $8.82 EPS.
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Applied Materials (AMAT) delivered Q4 FY2025 revenue of $6.80 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.17, while full-year revenue reached a record $28.37 billion. Q1 FY2026 guidance calls for roughly $6.85 billion in revenue and $2.18 EPS.
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All three equipment leaders are benefiting from AI-driven semiconductor demand, though China-related export restrictions remain a shared risk.
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ASML leads in growth and technology dominance, KLAC stands out on margins, and AMAT offers stability through its services business.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
ASML’s Q4 2025 results, released on January 28, 2026, capped a record-setting year defined by surging bookings tied to artificial intelligence and advanced-node chip production. As the sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography tools, ASML occupies a critical bottleneck position in the global semiconductor supply chain.
Comparing ASML with KLA and Applied Materials provides insight into how different segments of the $100+ billion wafer fab equipment (WFE) market are performing. While all three benefit from expanding foundry and AI-related capital spending—particularly from leaders like TSMC—their exposure to China, margins, and product mixes differ meaningfully. These distinctions shape investor expectations around growth, resilience, and risk as the industry heads into 2026.
ASML: Earnings Recap
ASML exceeded the high end of prior guidance in Q4, reporting €9.7 billion in net sales, 52.2% gross margin, and €2.8 billion in net income. For full-year 2025, revenue totaled €32.7 billion, up 16% year over year, with gross margin of 52.8% and net income of €9.6 billion. Basic diluted EPS reached €24.73.
The headline figure was Q4 net bookings of €13.2 billion, more than double market expectations, with EUV accounting for €7.4 billion. This surge underscores strong demand for leading-edge logic and AI chips. Looking ahead, ASML guided 2026 revenue to €34–39 billion, implying up to 19% growth, and reaffirmed gross margin targets of 51–53%. Management noted that China could represent roughly 20% of 2026 revenue, a key risk factor despite strong global demand.
KLA Corp. (KLAC): Earnings and Outlook
KLA will report Q2 FY2026 results after the close on January 29, 2026. Consensus forecasts call for $3.26 billion in revenue and $8.82 in non-GAAP EPS, representing mid-single-digit year-over-year growth.
In Q1 FY2026, KLA delivered $3.21 billion in revenue, up 13% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS of $8.81, comfortably beating expectations. Results were driven by strong demand in advanced packaging, AI logic, and DRAM, with non-GAAP gross margins near 62%. While management acknowledged near-term risks tied to China restrictions, KLA expects to outperform the broader WFE market over the long term due to its leadership in process control and yield management.
Applied Materials (AMAT): Earnings and Outlook
Applied Materials is scheduled to report Q1 FY2026 earnings on February 12, 2026. Consensus expectations center on EPS of approximately $2.20.
In Q4 FY2025, AMAT posted $6.80 billion in revenue, down 3% year over year but above expectations, along with non-GAAP EPS of $2.17 and GAAP EPS of $2.38. Full-year revenue reached a record $28.37 billion, up 4%, while non-GAAP EPS rose 9% to $9.42. The company’s services segment—about 30% of total revenue—continued to provide stability, while systems demand benefited from AI-related investments. China revenue declined to 29%, reflecting export controls.
For Q1 FY2026, AMAT guided revenue to $6.85 billion ± $0.5 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.18 ± $0.20, with management signaling stronger growth in the second half of fiscal 2026 as logic and DRAM spending recovers.
Head-to-Head Comparison
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Growth leadership: ASML stands apart, with record bookings and a near-monopoly in EUV lithography.
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Profitability: KLA leads on margins, supported by its high-value process control portfolio.
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Stability: Applied Materials benefits from a diversified revenue base and recurring services income.
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Risks: All three face headwinds from U.S.–China trade restrictions, with China exposure ranging from roughly 20–30% of revenue.
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Catalysts: Rising AI-driven capital expenditures, including potential $50+ billion annual capex at leading foundries, underpin sector optimism for 2026.
AI-Based Market View
Tickeron AI Perspective
Tickeron’s AI-driven models currently assign ASML the highest probability of outperformance over the next 6–12 months, supported by record bookings, strong 2026 guidance, and its unmatched EUV position in the AI supply chain. KLA offers defensive appeal through superior margins, while Applied Materials provides diversification and steadier cash flows as the semiconductor cycle evolves.
Disclaimers and Limitations
Contributor
ASML in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on September 14, 2026
ASML may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 29 of 36 cases where ASML's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 23, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ASML as a result. In 56 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ASML just turned positive on September 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where ASML's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
ASML moved above its 50-day moving average on September 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ASML crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Following a +5.19% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ASML advanced for three days, in 226 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ASML declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
The Aroon Indicator for ASML entered a downward trend on September 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 61, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ASML’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ASML's P/B Ratio (27.397) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (8.078). P/E Ratio (61.273) is within average values for comparable stocks, (161.623). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.086) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.002) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (15.175) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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General Information
a manufacturer of technology systems for the semiconductor industry
Industry ElectronicProductionEquipment
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