Autodesk (ADSK) Stock Drops -19.7% in 30 Days After Earnings and Acquisition Concerns
Key Takeaways
- Autodesk (ADSK) shares fell about 19.7% over the 30 days through late September 2026, sliding from roughly $260.66 to $209.40.
- The decline followed a fiscal Q2 2027 earnings report that beat revenue and profit estimates but issued third-quarter earnings guidance below Wall Street expectations.
- Investor concerns centered on near-term margin dilution from the $3.6 billion MaintainX acquisition and slower sales productivity in Western Europe.
- Broader software-sector "AI disruption" anxiety and macroeconomic headwinds amplified the sell-off, which included eight consecutive losing sessions.
- Despite the pullback, shares remain modestly above late-June levels after a summer rally that the September slide partially erased.
Autodesk (ADSK) Company Overview and Market Position
Autodesk is a global leader in design and engineering software, best known for products such as AutoCAD, Revit, Fusion 360, Maya, and Civil 3D. The company serves architecture, engineering, construction, and operations (AECO), manufacturing, and media and entertainment customers through a largely subscription-based, recurring-revenue model.
Autodesk holds a dominant position in computer-aided design (CAD) and building information modeling (BIM), and it has been expanding into cloud-based workflows, generative design, and "project intelligence" that links design, manufacturing, and operations. Investors follow the stock closely because of its entrenched customer base, high renewal rates, strong operating margins, and its ongoing effort to monetize AI-driven features across its platform. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Autodesk (ADSK) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the trailing 30 days, ADSK declined approximately 19.7%, falling from a closing price of about $260.66 to roughly $209.40. The move was sharp rather than gradual: after peaking near $270 in late August, the stock sold off through early September, losing ground over eight consecutive sessions and giving up a cumulative decline of more than 20% from its recent high before stabilizing in the low-to-mid $200s.
The trailing-quarter picture is more mixed. Shares traded around $190 in late June before rallying through July and August, driven by strong fundamentals and upbeat guidance. That advance lifted the stock above $270 by late August. The September sell-off then erased much of that gain, leaving the stock modestly higher on a three-month basis but well below its 52-week high of roughly $325 and still down significantly on a year-to-date basis.
What Drove ADSK Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The primary catalyst was Autodesk's fiscal 2027 second-quarter earnings report, released on August 27, 2026. The company delivered strong headline results: revenue rose 16% year over year to $2.05 billion, and adjusted earnings per share of $3.30 beat the $3.12 consensus. Billings grew 10% to $1.85 billion, non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 41%, and free cash flow increased 24% to $561 million.
Despite the beat, the stock fell roughly 5% in after-hours trading. Investors focused on third-quarter adjusted EPS guidance of $3.04 to $3.09, which came in below the roughly $3.14 analysts had expected. The company also flagged that the completed $3.6 billion all-cash acquisition of MaintainX, an asset- and operations-management software provider, would dilute margins in the near term. Management additionally noted some friction in the normalization of Western European sales productivity.
The decline was compounded by sector-wide anxiety about whether rapidly improving AI tools could disrupt traditional software business models, a theme that has pressured other software names such as Adobe (ADBE) and ServiceNow (NOW). Analyst actions reflected divided sentiment: Guggenheim raised its price target to $283 while maintaining a Buy rating, while Goldman Sachs initiated coverage at Neutral, and some ratings firms moved to a more cautious stance.
What Drove ADSK Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The broader three-month narrative is one of a strong rally followed by a sharp reversal. Through July and August, Autodesk benefited from accelerating revenue growth across its construction and manufacturing businesses, continued momentum in Fusion 360, and enthusiasm around its AI and project-intelligence strategy. The company also raised its full-year revenue and billings guidance, reinforcing confidence in durable demand.
The late-August earnings release, however, shifted the tone. Concerns about profit guidance, acquisition-driven margin compression, and execution risks tied to the MaintainX integration and a sales reorganization outweighed the quarter's operational strength. Combined with a rotation away from richly valued software names and rising caution about AI's impact on legacy SaaS pricing power, those factors drove the stock lower and left it roughly flat to modestly higher over the full quarter despite the sharp September decline.
ADSK Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Investors should monitor several factors that could shape ADSK going forward. The next earnings report, covering the fiscal third quarter ending October 31, 2026, will be closely watched for whether profit margins hold up against the MaintainX integration and for any updates on Western European sales productivity. Progress on AI monetization, including adoption of Fusion 360's AI features and task-based automation, will be another key theme.
Macroeconomic conditions, software-sector sentiment, and competitive pressures from both traditional design vendors and emerging AI-native tools remain important variables. Analysts have offered a wide range of price targets, reflecting uncertainty around organic growth rates, the MaintainX contribution, and the timing of AI-driven revenue. As always, these forward-looking factors should be evaluated in the context of each investor's own research and risk tolerance. From what I see, I’m watching this closely for any signs of stabilization in the coming weeks.
Using Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots for Strategy Insights
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Momentum Indicator for ADSK turns positive, indicating new upward trend
ADSK saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 05, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 83 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 59 of the 83 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ADSK's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 21 of 31 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ADSK just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where ADSK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Following a +9.09% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADSK advanced for three days, in 213 of 332 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
ADSK moved below its 50-day moving average on September 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ADSK crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 11, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADSK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
ADSK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ADSK entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ADSK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 74 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (12.804) is normal, around the industry mean (51.693). P/E Ratio (26.838) is within average values for comparable stocks, (82.636). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.797) is also within normal values, averaging (3.135). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.024) is also within normal values, averaging (70.184).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ADSK’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
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a developer of multimedia software products
Industry PackagedSoftware
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