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Sergey Savastiouk's Avatar
published in Blogs
Feb 24, 2023

AvalonBay Communities (AVB, $174.35) fundamental analysis of earnings

AvalonBay Communities Inc. (AVB) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns, develops, and manages multifamily properties in the United States. 

Fundamental Analysis of Earnings

To begin our analysis, let's take a look at AVB's earnings report for the fourth quarter of 2021, which was released on February 2, 2022. In the report, AVB reported funds from operations (FFO) of $2.33 per share, which was an increase of 14.9% compared to the same quarter last year. The company's net income attributable to common stockholders was $184.1 million, or $1.34 per share, compared to $143.2 million, or $1.04 per share, for the same quarter in 2020.

AVB's revenue for the fourth quarter of 2021 was $680.5 million, up from $679.8 million in the same quarter last year. The company's same-store net operating income (NOI) increased by 5.6% year-over-year. AVB's full-year 2021 FFO per share was $9.12, which was an increase of 7.7% compared to the previous year.

AVB's strong financial performance in 2021 was driven by a combination of factors, including higher rental rates, higher occupancy rates, and cost controls. The company also benefited from a strong housing market, which has driven demand for multifamily properties.

Recent Stock Performance

Now let's take a look at AVB's recent stock performance. As of February 23, 2022, AVB's stock price was $180.49 per share, which was down 3.6% from its 52-week high of $187.29 per share. The stock has been trading in a range between $163.06 and $187.29 per share over the past year.

AVB's stock price is currently below its lower Bollinger Band, which suggests that the stock may be oversold. However, it is important to note that the Bollinger Bands are just one technical indicator and should not be relied upon solely for trading decisions.

Combining Information for Trading Decisions

Based on our fundamental analysis of AVB's earnings, the company appears to be in a strong financial position with a solid outlook for growth. AVB's recent stock performance suggests that the stock may be oversold and could be due for a rebound.

The probability that AVB's stock price will grow further in the next month after breaking through its lower Bollinger Band is 68%, according to historical data. Traders may use this information to guide their trading decisions.

AVB seems to be a fundamentally sound business with a promising future. Based on its recent stock performance and historical data, traders may think about purchasing the stock or investigating call options. Yet, as with any investment, it's crucial to conduct research and carefully weigh the dangers.

Related Ticker: AVB

AVB in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 22, 2024

The 10-day moving average for AVB crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AVB as a result. In of 92 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AVB just turned positive on October 17, 2024. Looking at past instances where AVB's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

AVB moved above its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AVB advanced for three days, in of 341 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

AVB may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AVB declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for AVB entered a downward trend on October 21, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AVB’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.185) is normal, around the industry mean (1.979). P/E Ratio (27.640) is within average values for comparable stocks, (62.368). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.967) is also within normal values, averaging (7.058). Dividend Yield (0.037) settles around the average of (0.068) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (9.276) is also within normal values, averaging (7.130).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are PROLOGIS (null:PLD), American Tower Corp (null:AMT), Simon Property Group (null:SPG), Annaly Capital Management (null:NLY), Rithm Capital Corp (null:RITM), Tanger (null:SKT), Innovative Industrial Properties (null:IIPR).

Industry description

A real estate investment trust (REIT) is a company any that owns, and in most cases, operates, income-producing real estate – ranging from office and apartment buildings to warehouses, hospitals, shopping centers, hotels and timberlands. Some REITs are involved in financing real estate. Equity REITs invest in and own properties, while mortgage REITs own and invest in property mortgages. REITs are required by law to pay out at least 90% of their annual taxable income (excluding capital gains) to shareholders in the form of dividends. Some REITs could be more cyclical than others; for example, when an economy is undergoing a recession, hotel REITs could be more vulnerable, compared to say healthcare REIT given that healthcare needs are less likely to depend on economic cycles. American Tower Corporation, Prologis, Inc. and Crown Castle International Corp are some of the biggest REIT companies in the U.S.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Real Estate Investment Trusts Industry is 5.37B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 51.9K to 243.79B. COFRF holds the highest valuation in this group at 243.79B. The lowest valued company is PDNLB at 51.9K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Real Estate Investment Trusts Industry was 1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 3%, and the average quarterly price growth was 11%. SGIC experienced the highest price growth at 53%, while BDN experienced the biggest fall at -17%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Real Estate Investment Trusts Industry was 14%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 3% and the average quarterly volume growth was -12%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 50
P/E Growth Rating: 53
Price Growth Rating: 52
SMR Rating: 79
Profit Risk Rating: 85
Seasonality Score: 39 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

a manager of multifamily apartment communities

Industry RealEstateInvestmentTrusts

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Real Estate Investment Trusts
Address
4040 Wilson Boulevard
Phone
+1 703 329-6300
Employees
3039
Web
https://www.avaloncommunities.com
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