Banco Santander (SAN): Q1 2026 Profit Rises +12% YoY, Beats Expectations
Key Takeaways
- Banco Santander reported underlying profit of €3.6 billion for Q1 2026, up 12% year-over-year (YoY) and beating analyst consensus of €3.5 billion.
- Total revenue rose 4% YoY to €15.1 billion, exceeding expectations of €15.0 billion, driven by 4% growth in net interest income (NII) and 6% in net fee income.
- Operating costs fell 3% to €6.5 billion, improving the efficiency ratio to 42.8% from 45.8% a year ago.
- The bank added eight million customers over the past 12 months, reaching 176 million, with loans and deposits up 5% and 4%, respectively, in constant euros.
- Return on tangible equity (RoTE) increased to 15.2%, and Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio strengthened to 14.4%.
- Reiterated 2026 guidance for mid-single-digit revenue growth and lower costs in constant euros.
Q1 2026 Earnings in Context
I've been keeping a close eye on Banco Santander (SAN), one of Europe's largest banks by market capitalization. The bank just released its Q1 2026 results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, against a backdrop of moderating interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties. With major exposure to Europe, Latin America, and the U.S., these figures provide valuable insights into global lending trends, deposit growth, and fee generation. From what I see, investors are particularly interested in signs of sustained profitability, building on Santander's record annual profits in recent years through smart diversification and cost discipline. This quarter's performance highlights the bank's resilience, which could shape its valuation and appeal as a dividend play in a crowded banking sector.
Breaking Down the Reported Results
Banco Santander (SAN) posted strong Q1 2026 results, with underlying profit of €3.6 billion surpassing consensus estimates of €3.5 billion from 13 analysts. Attributable profit reached €5.5 billion, boosted 60% YoY by a €1.9 billion net capital gain from the Poland disposal. Revenue totaled €15.1 billion, up 4% YoY and ahead of the €15.0 billion forecast, supported by NII of €11.0 billion (+4% YoY, beating €10.9 billion expected) and net fees of €3.4 billion (+6% YoY, near €3.4 billion consensus).
Costs declined 3% to €6.5 billion, better than the €6.6 billion anticipated, driving positive operating leverage and an efficiency ratio of 42.8%. Credit quality remained solid with a cost of risk at 1.14%, stable YoY. Balance sheet growth was robust, with loans +5% and deposits +4% in constant euros. RoTE rose to 15.2%, and CET1 hit 14.4%, reflecting strong capital generation. One thing that stands out to me is the customer growth—eight million new customers in the past year, pushing the total to 176 million—which supports the loan and deposit expansion.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Shares of Banco Santander (SAN)'s ADR rose about 0.9% in pre-market trading after the earnings release, a reaction I view as endorsement of the profit beat, cost control, and reaffirmed guidance. Investor sentiment has shifted more optimistic, with emphasis on the bank's customer acquisition momentum and capital strength, even as interest rate outlooks remain cautious. Trading volume increased notably, as analysts noted the consistent outperformance versus consensus.
Tickeron’s AI Screener
In my own research process, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener, an AI-powered tool for discovering stocks and ETFs. It lets me filter thousands of assets based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI signals, using customizable criteria like industry, market cap, indicators, or price patterns. This helps me quickly identify trade ideas, breakout candidates, and opportunities that might otherwise take hours to spot manually. I find it streamlines my workflow, especially when comparing banks like SAN to peers—worth exploring if you're looking to sharpen your screening.
Looking Ahead: Guidance and Key Factors
Banco Santander (SAN) reiterated its 2026–2028 strategic targets, expecting mid-single-digit revenue growth, cost reductions in constant euros, and higher profits this year, with CET1 of 12.8%–13% (adjusted for certain transactions). Net fee income is projected to grow faster than NII, supported by rising customer activity across its global footprint. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock stacks up against industry trends.
Key items I'm watching include loan and deposit expansion, especially in high-growth areas like Latin America, along with fee trends from payments and wealth management. Cost discipline via the ONE Transformation program will be crucial for margins. Credit quality, including the cost of risk, merits attention amid potential economic slowdowns.
Upcoming catalysts are the €5 billion share buyback completion and the final 2025 dividend on May 5. Keep an eye on regulatory provisions like the UK motor finance issue and progress on acquisitions such as Webster. Broader factors like interest rate trajectories and geopolitical tensions could influence NII and provisions.
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Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
SAN's RSI Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for SAN moved out of oversold territory on October 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 18 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 15 of the 18 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 38 of 51 cases where SAN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Following a +4.87% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SAN advanced for three days, in 230 of 317 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
SAN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 18, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SAN as a result. In 44 of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SAN turned negative on September 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 22 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 46%.
SAN moved below its 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SAN crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 6 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 40%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SAN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
The Aroon Indicator for SAN entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SAN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 62 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.657) is normal, around the industry mean (1.866). P/E Ratio (14.136) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.888). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.932) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.026) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.966) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
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