Baozun forms new trend channel
From July through the bottom in December, Baozun (Nasdaq: BZUN) trended lower and it did so within the confines of a trend channel. During this period the stock fell from the $65 area all the way down to the $28 area. The Chinese firm provides end-to-end solutions to e-commerce business partners, and it was caught up in the fall by the Chinese market.
In the last few months, Baozun has seen a new trend channel form and this one is upwardly sloped. The stock just dropped down to the lower rail of the channel and has now turned higher.
An interesting thing about the first channel was how the upper rail was in such close proximity to the stock’s 50-day moving average. Now we see the lower rail of the new channel is doing the same thing.
Tickeron’s AI Trend Prediction tool generated a bullish signal on Baozun on March 12 and that signal predicts a move of at least 4% over the next month. The confidence level on the signal was at 78% and past predictions on Baozun have been accurate 89% of the time.
The fundamentals for Baozun are really good, especially the earnings and sales growth. Over the last three years the company has seen its earnings grow by an average of 100% per year while sales grew by 24% per year. In the most recent quarterly report earnings grew by 19% while sales were up by 33%.
BZUN in -10.49% downward trend, sliding for three consecutive days on May 25, 2023
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where BZUN declined for three days, in of 333 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 18, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BZUN as a result. In of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BZUN turned negative on May 25, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
The Aroon Indicator for BZUN entered a downward trend on May 26, 2023. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BZUN's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 43 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BZUN advanced for three days, in of 297 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
BZUN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BZUN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.429) is normal, around the industry mean (18.928). P/E Ratio (18.797) is within average values for comparable stocks, (73.881). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.626). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.038) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.208) is also within normal values, averaging (8.439).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BZUN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 95, placing this stock worse than average.
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