From July through the bottom in December, Baozun (Nasdaq: BZUN) trended lower and it did so within the confines of a trend channel. During this period the stock fell from the $65 area all the way down to the $28 area. The Chinese firm provides end-to-end solutions to e-commerce business partners, and it was caught up in the fall by the Chinese market.
In the last few months, Baozun has seen a new trend channel form and this one is upwardly sloped. The stock just dropped down to the lower rail of the channel and has now turned higher.
An interesting thing about the first channel was how the upper rail was in such close proximity to the stock’s 50-day moving average. Now we see the lower rail of the new channel is doing the same thing.
Tickeron’s AI Trend Prediction tool generated a bullish signal on Baozun on March 12 and that signal predicts a move of at least 4% over the next month. The confidence level on the signal was at 78% and past predictions on Baozun have been accurate 89% of the time.
The fundamentals for Baozun are really good, especially the earnings and sales growth. Over the last three years the company has seen its earnings grow by an average of 100% per year while sales grew by 24% per year. In the most recent quarterly report earnings grew by 19% while sales were up by 33%.
Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for BZUN crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on April 02, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
BZUN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on April 24, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for BZUN entered a downward trend on April 12, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on April 22, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BZUN as a result. In of 94 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BZUN just turned positive on April 22, 2024. Looking at past instances where BZUN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
BZUN moved above its 50-day moving average on April 23, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BZUN advanced for three days, in of 266 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BZUN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.278) is normal, around the industry mean (3.732). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (59.569). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.921). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.026) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.127) is also within normal values, averaging (10.201).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BZUN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock worse than average.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a provider of e-commerce solutions
Industry InternetRetail