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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
Aug 28, 2019

Baozun looks to bounce after post earnings selloff

Chinese internet firm Baozun (Nasdaq: BZUN) reported earnings on August 21. The company reported earnings of $0.20 on revenue of $248.2 million. Both of those figures were better than the consensus estimates and both were better than the results from a year ago. Despite beating on both the top and bottom line and seeing year over year increases in earnings and revenues, the stock fell sharply. In fact the stock dropped 12.6% on August 21.

This was a little puzzling to me and I started looking back at the last couple of earnings reports. That’s when I noticed a pattern. When the company reported earnings on March 6, it beat earnings estimates and revenue estimates, but the stock fell 17.7% from the close on March 5 to the low on March 8. The stock would turn things around and rally by over 50% within the next two months.

The company reported earnings again on May 29 and once again it beat estimates on both the top and bottom line. The stock didn’t drop this time around, but it also didn’t gap higher. The stock would rally by over 50% in just over a month.

I also took note of a trend line connecting the December low with the low from May and the stock just hit this trend line late last week—two days after its earnings report.

Looking at the Tickeron Technical Analysis Overview for Baozun we see that the stochastic indicators were in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected. The indicators haven’t made a bullish crossover just yet, but they look like they could soon.

The RSI indicator points to a transition from a downtrend to an uptrend -- in cases where BZUN's RSI indicator exited the oversold zone, 9 of 10 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued uptrend are 90%.

Yet another positive sign for Baozun is the fact that the lower Bollinger Band was broken. In 24 of 30 cases where the stock’s price broke its lower Bollinger Band, it rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.

On the fundamental side we see that the Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 32, indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The company saw sales increase by 42% in the second quarter and it has averaged sales growth of 26% over the last three years. Analysts expect sales to grow by 30.9% for 2019 as a whole. The return on equity is at 17.2% while the profit margin is a little below average at 7.7%.

Earnings have grown by an average of 79% per year over the last three years and they were up by 50% in the second quarter. Analysts’ estimates are suggesting earnings growth of 43% for 2019.

The sentiment toward Baozun is mixed with analysts being rather bullish on the stock while short sellers are extremely bearish on the stock. There are 12 analysts following the stock with 10 “buy” ratings and two “hold” ratings. That puts the buy percentage at 83.3% and that is above the range of 65% to 75%.

The short interest ratio is a whopping 10.64 and that is the highest reading for the ratio this year. It is also one of the highest readings I have seen in recent months.

Given the strong fundamentals and the huge short interest ratio, those two scenarios alone make me think it’s time for Baozun to bounce. When you add the pattern where the stock has gained over 50% after the last two earnings reports and it has done it in less than two months—that is icing on the cake to me.

Related Ticker: BZUN

BZUN in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on June 18, 2024

BZUN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In of 38 cases where BZUN's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BZUN's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 42 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 64 cases where BZUN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BZUN advanced for three days, in of 257 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 24, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BZUN as a result. In of 95 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BZUN turned negative on May 23, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

BZUN moved below its 50-day moving average on June 05, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for BZUN crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on June 10, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BZUN declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for BZUN entered a downward trend on June 24, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 89%.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.261) is normal, around the industry mean (3.868). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (79.588). BZUN's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.780). BZUN has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.027). P/S Ratio (0.117) is also within normal values, averaging (4.263).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. BZUN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BZUN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), PDD Holdings (NASDAQ:PDD), Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA), JD.com (NASDAQ:JD), eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY), Chewy (NYSE:CHWY), Vipshop Holdings Limited (NYSE:VIPS), Wayfair (NYSE:W), Just Eat Takeaway.com N.V. (OTC:JTKWY), Revolve Group (NYSE:RVLV).

Industry description

The internet retail industry includes companies that sell products and services through the Internet. With more and more consumers using online retailers, the companies have seen a big increase in the use of their services. Some of the companies in the group are focused on selling business-to-business products and services. Others sell business-to-consumer products and services. Internet retailers offer a wide variety of products like books, apparel, and electronics. Some companies even specialize in only one or two categories. One potentially critical factor for players to thrive in this space is the quality and speed of product delivery. This requires an investment in efficient distribution networks. Things like logistics are important factors in the success in the extremely competitive industry. For a company to stay relevant in the industry it must have effective pricing strategies and upgraded websites. The websites must be easy to navigate and engaging for customers. In addition to the revenues generated from straight sales, internet retailers can generate revenue from subscription fees and advertising. Amazon.com, Inc., Alibaba Group, and JD.com are some of the global leaders.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Internet Retail Industry is 34.53B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 622 to 1.97T. AMZN holds the highest valuation in this group at 1.97T. The lowest valued company is RBZHF at 622.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Internet Retail Industry was -1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 53%, and the average quarterly price growth was 24%. CHWY experienced the highest price growth at 15%, while IPW experienced the biggest fall at -45%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Internet Retail Industry was 37%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 14% and the average quarterly volume growth was 69%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 56
P/E Growth Rating: 68
Price Growth Rating: 49
SMR Rating: 80
Profit Risk Rating: 90
Seasonality Score: 18 (-100 ... +100)
Related Portfolios: APPLICATION SOFTWARE
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General Information

a provider of e-commerce solutions

Industry InternetRetail

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Catalog Or Specialty Distribution
Address
348 Kwun Tong Road
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Employees
7588
Web
https://www.baozun.com
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