BBVA's Q1 2026 Earnings: +10.8% Profit Surge and Robust Capital Strength
Key Takeaways
- Net attributable profit reached €2.99 billion in 1Q26, up 10.8% year-over-year (YoY) and exceeding consensus estimates of €2.79 billion.
- Gross income climbed 18.3% YoY to €10.65 billion, fueled by robust net interest income (NII, the spread between interest earned on loans and paid on deposits) growth of 20.2% to €7.54 billion.
- Return on tangible equity (ROTE, a key profitability metric adjusted for intangibles) hit 21.7%, with CET1 ratio (Common Equity Tier 1, a measure of core capital strength) at a solid 12.83%.
- Customer loans expanded 17% YoY at constant exchange rates, highlighting strong demand across Spain, Mexico, and emerging markets.
- Announced a new tranche of share buybacks up to €1.46 billion, continuing aggressive capital returns to shareholders.
- Provisions for loan losses rose 35% YoY to €1.82 billion, but cost of risk remained stable at 1.54%.
Why BBVA's Q1 Earnings Matter
BBVA, Spain's second-largest lender by market capitalization, operates across diverse geographies including Europe, Mexico, Turkey, and South America. The 1Q26 earnings (covering January to March 2026) come amid peaking interest rates that have bolstered NII but also heightened provisioning needs due to economic uncertainties. For investors like myself, these results signal BBVA's execution on its diversification strategy and resilience in volatile markets. Strong profitability and capital levels underscore its appeal in a sector facing margin pressures, while buyback announcements highlight shareholder-friendly policies amid geopolitical tensions.
Breaking Down the Reported Results
BBVA delivered standout 1Q26 results, with net attributable profit of €2.99 billion surpassing analyst forecasts of €2.79 billion and growing 10.8% YoY (14.1% at constant FX). Gross income surged 18.3% to €10.65 billion, driven by NII of €7.54 billion (+20.2% YoY, margin at 3.35%) and net fees & commissions of €2.26 billion (+15.5% YoY). Core revenues reached €9.79 billion (+19.1%), while operating income was €6.60 billion (+18.7%).
Expenses grew 17.5% YoY, yielding an efficiency ratio of 38% (improved 24 basis points). Provisions increased 35% to €1.82 billion amid higher risk, but non-performing loans stayed at 2.6% with coverage at 86%. Profitability shone with ROTE at 21.7% and EPS up 12.5% YoY. Balance sheet strength persisted, with CET1 at 12.83% (+13 bps quarter-on-quarter) and loans +17% YoY. All major metrics beat expectations, validating BBVA's business model. One thing that stands out to me is how these figures compare to peers—I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see BBVA alongside others in the industry.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
BBVA's earnings beat sparked positive initial reactions, with analysts highlighting resilient revenues and capital returns amid rising provisions. Madrid-listed shares edged higher in early trading, while the NYSE ADR held steady in pre-market, reflecting approval of the 21.7% ROTE and buyback news. Investor sentiment remains bullish, with consensus ratings at "Buy" and praise for diversification across high-growth regions like Mexico and Turkey. Concerns over provisions were offset by stable asset quality. From what I see, this positions BBVA well for continued interest.
AI Screener: A Tool I Rely On
One tool I rely on regularly for my analysis is Tickeron’s AI Screener, an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps me filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. I use it to scan thousands of stocks and ETFs with customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. It uncovers trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities far more efficiently than manual screening, and it’s become a staple in my research workflow for stocks like BBVA.
Looking Ahead: Outlook and Key Factors to Watch
Investors should track BBVA's ongoing share repurchase program, with the new €1.46 billion tranche starting May 6, potentially totaling nearly €4 billion since December. This supports tangible book value growth (+18.1% YoY excluding buybacks) and aligns with commitments to distribute excess capital above the 11.5%-12% CET1 target. I’m watching this closely as it demonstrates BBVA's commitment to shareholders.
Progress toward the 2028 strategic plan goals, including sustained 20%+ ROTE, remains key. Management affirmed on-track execution, bolstered by AI integration across eight initiatives to drive efficiency.
Watch loan portfolio dynamics: +17% growth signals demand, but monitor non-performing loans (2.6%) and cost of risk (1.54%) amid economic headwinds in Europe and LatAm. NII trajectory will depend on rate paths, while fee income from diversification in Türkiye and South America offers upside. Geopolitical risks and regulatory changes in key markets warrant attention. In my view, these elements will shape BBVA's path forward.
Disclaimer
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Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
BBVA in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on October 01, 2026
BBVA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 28 of 32 cases where BBVA's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.78% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BBVA advanced for three days, in 254 of 347 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 15, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BBVA as a result. In 28 of 72 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 39%.
BBVA moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for BBVA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BBVA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
The Aroon Indicator for BBVA entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BBVA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 59 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.370) is normal, around the industry mean (1.866). P/E Ratio (13.393) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.888). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.229) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). BBVA has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.037) as compared to the industry average of (0.026). P/S Ratio (3.249) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
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