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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
Dec 29, 2020

Bearish Signals from the Bollinger Bands for 5 Renewable Energy Equipment Stocks

The renewable energy industry has performed incredibly well over the last 10 months. After bottoming at $21.11 in March, the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) has rallied over 400%. As you can imagine, such a rally has caused the ETF and most of the stocks in the group to reach overbought levels on their weekly charts. In most cases they are also overbought on the daily and monthly charts as well.

I ran a scan on December 24 for stocks in overbought territory that also had their daily stochastic indicators make bearish crossovers. On that list were five different renewable energy equipment stocks and the Invesco Solar ETF. The five stocks were:

            First Solar (FSLR)

            JinkoSolar (JKS)

            Sunnova Energy International (NOVA)

            Plug Power (PLUG)

            Sunpower (SPWR)

When I pulled up these five stocks on the Tickeron Technical Analysis Screener, I couldn’t help but notice all five stocks had received bearish signals from the Bollinger Bands indicator within the last three days. Two of the five, Sunnova and JinkoSolar, had bearish signals generated on December 28.

The Tickeron Scorecard has Plug Power ranked as a “sell” and First Solar is ranked as a “strong buy”. The other three have “buy” ratings. Despite the scorecard grades, there are some areas of concern on the fundamental side. All five stocks have poor SMR ratings and four of the five have poor P/E Growth Ratings. We also see that three of the five are overvalued at this time.

I looked at the analysts’ ratings and the short interest ratios for these five stocks in order to get a sense of the sentiment toward them. There is quite a bit of pessimism toward First Solar and Sunpower while the sentiment is neutral on JinkoSolar.

Sunnova Energy and Plug Power both have quite a bit of optimism directed at them right now. Both companies have 11 analysts following them with 10 of the 11 rating the stock as a “buy”. In both instances there is one “hold” rating on each stock. The short interest ratio for Sunnova is very low at 1.6 and Plug’s is below average at 2.49.

What all of this tells me is that if the bearish crossovers from the stochastic indicators and the bearish signals from the Bollinger Bands turn out to be accurate, it will be driven primarily from technical factors. The overbought levels could cause some investors to take profits.

To give you an idea of how the stocks compare to one another and to other stocks in general, I used the comparison feature on Tickeron to compare Plug, Sunnova, and First Solar. If you recall Plug was rated as a “sell”, Sunnova was rated as a “buy”, and First Solar is rated as a “strong buy”.

Related Ticker: TAN

TAN in +7.30% Uptrend, advancing for three consecutive days on April 14, 2025

Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where TAN advanced for three days, in of 267 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TAN's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on April 22, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TAN as a result. In of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TAN just turned positive on April 21, 2025. Looking at past instances where TAN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

TAN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TAN declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for TAN entered a downward trend on April 21, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR), Enphase Energy (NASDAQ:ENPH), SolarEdge Technologies (NASDAQ:SEDG), Canadian Solar (NASDAQ:CSIQ).

Industry description

The investment seeks to track the investment results (before fees and expenses) of the MAC Global Solar Energy Index. The fund will generally invest at least 90% of its total assets in the securities that comprise the underlying index. Strictly in accordance with its guidelines and mandated procedures, MAC Indexing LLC, has contracted with S&P DJI Netherlands B.V. to calculate and administer the underlying index, which seeks to track the performance of companies in global solar energy businesses. The fund is non-diversified.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Invesco Solar ETF ETF is 4.21B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 1.27B to 18.04B. FSLR holds the highest valuation in this group at 18.04B. The lowest valued company is CSIQ at 1.27B.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Invesco Solar ETF ETF was 49%. For the same ETF, the average monthly price growth was 19%, and the average quarterly price growth was 39%. CSIQ experienced the highest price growth at 24%, while ENPH experienced the biggest fall at -13%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Invesco Solar ETF ETF was 19%. For the same stocks of the ETF, the average monthly volume growth was -4% and the average quarterly volume growth was 5%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 68
P/E Growth Rating: 55
Price Growth Rating: 71
SMR Rating: 74
Profit Risk Rating: 90
Seasonality Score: -45 (-100 ... +100)
Related Portfolios: RENEWABLE ENERGY
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