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Jul 31, 2018
BP Makes a Comeback

BP Makes a Comeback

Following the massive fallout from the 2010 Gulf of Mexico spill, BP is charting a comeback and re-entering the conversation with other super-major oil producers like Exxon. In the second quarter, BP posted a $2.8 billion profit, which exceeded analyst expectations and is about four times higher than the same period last year.  For BP, this is standout performance in a quarter where Exxon disappointed. 

BP said its oil-and-gas production was 3.6 million barrels per day of oil-equivalent, and the company has started projects in Azerbaijan, Russia and Egypt. The CFO of BP, Brian Gilvary, indicated that the company has already paid 80% of this year's planned settlement payments related to the Gulf of Mexico tragedy, which indicates that profitability may not be inhibited by payouts in the second half of the year (assuming there's not another tragedy and lawsuit). CEO Bob Dudley said that looking forward, the company is planning for oil prices in the $50–$65 per barrel range, which is conservative by today's prices -- crude is trading around $70 a barrel.

Related Ticker: BP

Contributor

Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.


BP in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026

BP moved above its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 26 of 39 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BP as a result. In 67 of 101 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.

Following a +1.82% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BP advanced for three days, in 213 of 357 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 148 of 279 cases where BP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 53%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for BP moved out of overbought territory on September 16, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 37 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 26 of the 37 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 70%.

The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BP turned negative on September 18, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 54%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 28, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 19 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.958) is normal, around the industry mean (1.887). P/E Ratio (21.224) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.521). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.058) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.045) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.548) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 74 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (NYSE:XOM), Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX), Petroleo Brasileiro Sa-Petrobras ADS (REP 1 Common Share) (NYSE:PBR), BP plc (NYSE:BP), Suncor Energy (NYSE:SU), YPF Sociedad Anonima (NYSE:YPF).

Industry description

Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Integrated Oil Industry is 124.33B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 63.2K to 668.27B. XOM holds the highest valuation in this group at 668.27B. The lowest valued company is CRRDF at 63.2K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Integrated Oil Industry was 3%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -0%, and the average quarterly price growth was 5%. PBR experienced the highest price growth at 17%, while TTE experienced the biggest fall at -5%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Integrated Oil Industry was 61%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 65% and the average quarterly volume growth was -26%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 40
P/E Growth Rating: 50
Price Growth Rating: 47
SMR Rating: 55
Profit Risk Rating: 27
Seasonality Score: 14 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

a producer of petroleum, natural gas and related products

Industry IntegratedOil

Industry
Integrated Oil
Address
1 St James's Square
Phone
+44 2074964000
Employees
93700
Web
https://www.bp.com
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