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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
Apr 26, 2019

Bullish signal on Atlassian just days after earnings disappointment

Atlassian (Nasdaq: TEAM) released earnings last week and the enterprise software company beat on its EPS estimate and revenue estimate, but the June profit forecast was disappointing to investors.

The disappointment caused the stock to gap lower on April 18 and the stock stabilized just above the $100 mark. If we connect the highs from December, February, and March, that could be the upper rail of a trend channel. The parallel lower rail would connect the low from November with the low from last week, if indeed this is a trend channel.

The pullback in the stock caused the daily oscillators to fall to their lowest levels since last October. They never actually reached oversold territory, but each stock can be different in that regard. The stochastic readings made a bullish crossover on April 24 and that could be a good sign.

The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction tool generated a bullish signal on Atlassian on April 23 and that signal showed a confidence level of 87%. Just as impressive as that confidence level is the fact that 77% of past predictions on the stock have been successful. This signal calls for a 4% move to the upside within the next month.

The fundamentals for Atlassian are among the best out there. The company scores a 99 on the EPS rating from Investor’s Business Daily and that is the highest score a company can get. It also receives an A in the SMR category which is the best a company can get for its sales growth, profit margin, and return on equity.

Atlassian has seen its earnings grow at an annual rate of 33% per year over the last three years while sales have grown at a rate of 39% during that same period. Atlassian’s composite score, which combines the fundamental ratings with the price performance, is a 99—once again the highest score a stock can get.

Related Ticker: TEAM

TEAM's Indicator enters downward trend

The Aroon Indicator for TEAM entered a downward trend on June 11, 2024. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 169 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In of the 169 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TEAM declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TEAM's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 56 cases where TEAM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 14, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TEAM as a result. In of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TEAM just turned positive on June 10, 2024. Looking at past instances where TEAM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

TEAM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. TEAM’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TEAM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (55.556) is normal, around the industry mean (30.421). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (157.675). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.505) is also within normal values, averaging (2.738). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.082) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (12.804) is also within normal values, averaging (56.972).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL), Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE), Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU), Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER), SERVICENOW (NYSE:NOW), Shopify (NYSE:SHOP), Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW), CrowdStrike Holdings (NASDAQ:CRWD).

Industry description

Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Packaged Software Industry is 10.47B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 291 to 3.15T. MSFT holds the highest valuation in this group at 3.15T. The lowest valued company is BLGI at 291.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was -1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -1%, and the average quarterly price growth was 17%. LGIQ experienced the highest price growth at 93%, while WBSR experienced the biggest fall at -71%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was -29%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -9% and the average quarterly volume growth was -57%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 52
P/E Growth Rating: 74
Price Growth Rating: 61
SMR Rating: 83
Profit Risk Rating: 89
Seasonality Score: 9 (-100 ... +100)
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TEAMDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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General Information

an enterprise software solutions provider

Industry PackagedSoftware

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Information Technology Services
Address
341 George Street
Phone
+61 292621443
Employees
10726
Web
https://www.atlassian.com
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