GET DAILY SIGNALSBurlington Stores (BURL) Declines -11.7% Over 30 Days as Pressure Builds
Key Takeaways
- Burlington Stores (BURL) fell roughly 11.7% over the 30 days through early November 2026, closing near $239.90 and extending a broader multi-month decline.
- The drop reflects persistent post-earnings pressure, a series of analyst price-target cuts, and downward revisions to earnings estimates.
- Management guided third-quarter adjusted EPS to $1.60–$1.70, below the prior-year $1.80 and below consensus, as tariff refunds are reinvested into lower prices.
- Comparable-store sales slowed to 2% in the fiscal second quarter from 5% a year earlier, signaling softer demand from budget-conscious shoppers.
- Technical momentum has weakened, with the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average in a "death cross" pattern.
- Shares sit well below their 52-week high of $378.33 and near their 52-week low of $226.85.
- For additional detail, review Burlington's Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages.
- Explore Trending AI Robots to see how AI-driven trading bots are positioning across the market.
Burlington Stores (BURL) Business Overview
Burlington Stores, Inc. operates as a major off-price retailer offering branded and private-label apparel, footwear, accessories, home goods, and baby products at prices typically lower than those found at department or specialty stores. The company runs stores across the country and uses an opportunistic buying approach that keeps inventory costs in check while providing frequently refreshed selections. It began in 1972 as Burlington Coat Factory in New Jersey.
Investors track BURL for its store-growth plans and the "Burlington 2.0" efforts aimed at improving merchandising, productivity, and smaller-format stores. The retailer competes with peers such as Ross Stores (ROST) and The TJX Companies (TJX), and its performance serves as a useful indicator of spending patterns among value-focused consumers. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to compare the stock with others in the retail sector.
BURL Stock Performance Over the Past 30 Days and Quarter
From late September into early November 2026, BURL moved from a closing price near $271.81 down to roughly $239.90, representing a decline of about 11.7%. The path was choppy, with short-lived recoveries followed by further selling as targets were trimmed and the stock approached its 52-week low.
Looking back three months from the start of August, when shares closed near $367.82, the drop reaches approximately 34.8%. Most of the move came after the fiscal second-quarter update in late August, and the pressure has continued through the fall.
Factors Behind the Recent 30-Day Move
Analyst actions played a key role. In late October, BofA lowered its target to $344 from $365, and other firms including Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and Wells Fargo made adjustments in light of softer comparable-sales trends and rising freight costs. Zacks Research shifted to a "Strong Sell" rating given the direction of earnings revisions.
Fundamentally, third-quarter guidance called for adjusted EPS of $1.60–$1.70, down from $1.80 the prior year, as the company directs about $55 million in tariff refunds toward lower prices. Comparable-store sales growth eased, and margin pressure from pricing and freight added to the concerns. The 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average added technical confirmation of weaker momentum, with shares trading close to the 52-week low of $226.85. From what I see, this combination of signals is worth monitoring closely.
Drivers of the Quarterly Decline
The main trigger was the fiscal second-quarter report released in late August 2026. Adjusted EPS came in at $2.96, above the $2.19 consensus, but revenue of roughly $3 billion missed the $3.03 billion expectation. Comparable-store sales rose just 2%, compared with 5% a year earlier, and management provided below-consensus guidance for the third quarter.
Reinvesting tariff refunds into pricing, alongside higher freight and sourcing costs, raised questions about near-term margins. A round of target reductions followed, and rotation away from consumer-discretionary stocks added to the selling. Even so, the consensus rating stayed at "Moderate Buy" with an average target near $368, highlighting the difference between short-term caution and longer-term expectations tied to store expansion.
Key Items to Watch Going Forward
The next earnings report will be important for signs that comparable-store sales have stabilized and that pressures from freight, tariffs, and pricing investments are easing. Updated commentary on comps, gross margins, and store openings will help shape the near-term outlook.
Other factors include the rollout of "Burlington 2.0" formats, progress toward at least 1,500 stores by the end of 2028, and the spending health of lower-income consumers amid higher living costs and interest rates. Competitive moves by off-price rivals, trade-policy developments, and sector rotation will also influence how BURL performs in the months ahead. I’m watching this closely for any shifts in those areas.
Using AI Tools in My Research
When analyzing names like BURL, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Trading Bots to review how automated strategies are positioned across similar retail stocks. This helps me quickly see which approaches have shown strength in the current environment without replacing my own fundamental review. The bots cover a range of timeframes and styles, giving a practical view of what is working in real time.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Harry Richardson — Algorithmic Trader & Strategy Developer Harry is an algorithmic trader specializing in impulse and breakout trading strategies across cryptocurrency and equity markets. With more than 10 years of experience in developing automated trading systems, he focuses on building structured algorithms designed to capture momentum while maintaining strict risk control. His approach combines quantitative analysis, real-market execution, and continuous performance monitoring. Vitalii prioritizes risk management, drawdown control, and strategy stability over short-term optimization, ensuring algorithms are adaptable to changing market conditions. He has developed and tested hundreds of automated strategies, working extensively with live trading environments, forward testing, and portfolio-level algorithm management. His work centers on transforming trading ideas into fully operational, scalable automated systems.
BURL's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for BURL entered a downward trend on November 03, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 220 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 168 of the 220 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BURL as a result. In 64 of 94 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BURL turned negative on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 41 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 66%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BURL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BURL's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 21 of 27 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 12 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.19% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BURL advanced for three days, in 219 of 306 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
BURL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 38 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 70 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: BURL's P/B Ratio (7.526) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.860). P/E Ratio (21.118) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.547). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.955) is also within normal values, averaging (0.517). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.065) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.212) is also within normal values, averaging (0.652).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. BURL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BURL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a provider of men's, women's and children's apparel
Industry ApparelFootwearRetail
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