Can Wynn Resorts break out of downward trend with earnings announcement?
Casino operator Wynn Resorts (Nasdaq: WYNN) is set to report third quarter earnings results on November 6 and the stock will be looking to break out of a downward trend with the results.
The stock has been trending lower since peaking in April and if we connect the high from April and July, we get a downward sloped trend line that is currently just below $130. The daily overbought/oversold indicators are in overbought territory and the daily stochastic readings made a bearish crossover on October 30.
The chart shows the downward sloped trend line, but it also shows a pretty strong support level at the $102.50 level. The stock has dropped to this area at the beginning of June, in mid-August, and again in early October. It would take a pretty big drop to get the stock back down to this area after the earnings report, but that could happen over the course of the coming weeks.
You can attribute the decline in the stock price to the fundamentals of the company. The company saw earnings decline by 6% in the second quarter and analysts expect earnings to decline by 17% for 2019 as a whole. As for the third quarter, the consensus estimate is for the company to report EPS of $0.90 and that is a huge drop from last year's third quarter EPS of $1.68.
Revenue grew by 3% in the second quarter and it has grown by 21% per year over the last three years. Analysts expect revenue to grow by 0.7% for 2019.
Wynn's management efficiency measurements are well above average with a return on equity of 46.9% and a profit margin of 14.5%. When you combine these figures with the sales growth for the company, you get an SMR rating from Tickeron of 37. This indicates that the company is slightly above average in terms of sales growth, profit margin, and return on Equity. The rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted sales, income margin and return on equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Unfortunately for Wynn this is one of the few indicators where the company ranks above average. The Tickeron Valuation Rating is at 74 and that indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. A rating of 1 points to the most undervalued stocks, while a rating of 100 points to the most overvalued stocks. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating for Wynn is 100, indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. Wynn’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock worse than average.
When it comes to earnings announcements, I have found that the sentiment indicators become more important than usual as they tell you what the investment community expects. If expectations are too high, the company has a hard time satisfying everyone. If the expectations are low, it's easy to impress investors.
Unfortunately for Wynn, the sentiment is rather bullish at this time. There are 18 analysts covering the stock at this time with 13 "buy" ratings and five "hold" ratings. This puts the buy percentage at 72.2%. This is in the average range, but with the stock trending lower and the fundamentals being rather weak, that might be too high. The short interest ratio is a paltry 1.8 so the odds of a short covering rally are rather low.
WYNN in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on April 30, 2024
WYNN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In of 41 cases where WYNN's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for WYNN's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 12 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WYNN advanced for three days, in of 295 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 228 cases where WYNN Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on April 12, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on WYNN as a result. In of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for WYNN turned negative on April 12, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
WYNN moved below its 50-day moving average on April 12, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for WYNN crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on April 18, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WYNN declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. WYNN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: WYNN's P/B Ratio (103.093) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (11.865). P/E Ratio (16.859) is within average values for comparable stocks, (62.563). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.301) is also within normal values, averaging (1.549). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.043) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.841) is also within normal values, averaging (5.559).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. WYNN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a high-end casinos & resorts company
Industry CasinosGaming