Review of the Week of May 12–16, 2025: Financial Leaders
Overview
The week of May 12–16, 2025, marked a pivotal moment for global financial markets, driven by a landmark US-China trade agreement announced on May 13. The 90-day truce, which significantly reduced tariffs, alleviated months of trade-related uncertainty, sparking a broad-based rally across equities, cryptocurrencies, and select currencies. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted, “We had very productive talks... reached an agreement on a 90-day pause and substantially move down the tariff levels”. This development, coupled with key economic data releases from the US, UK, and Japan, shaped a dynamic week for investors and traders.
Financial Markets Weekly Recap
Equities
The equity markets experienced a robust rally, fueled by optimism surrounding the US-China trade deal. On May 12, futures signaled strong gains as traders anticipated progress in trade talks, with Nasdaq futures (QQQ) rising 2%, S&P futures (SPY) up 1.5%, and Dow futures (DIA) gaining 1.1%. The momentum carried into May 13, when the Nasdaq surged 4.3%, crossing its 200-day moving average and entering bull market territory, defined as a 20% rise from its April 8 low. The S&P 500 climbed 3.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.8% (1,161 points), both crossing their 200-day lines.
By May 14, the S&P 500 turned positive for the year, gaining 0.7% and closing 0.3% above its year-end 2024 level. President Trump’s praise for a “total reset” in US-China trade further bolstered sentiment. Individual stocks also shone, with Apple Inc. (AAPL) soaring 6.1% to $210.79 on May 13, driven by relief over tariff reductions, given its heavy reliance on Chinese manufacturing. Other “Magnificent Seven” stocks, such as Amazon (AMZN) (+8.1%) and Meta (META) (+7.9%), also contributed to the rally.
Currencies
The US dollar exhibited strength early in the week, driven by the trade deal’s positive implications for the US economy. On May 13, the EUR/USD pair dropped from $1.1242 to $1.1140, reflecting dollar strength against the euro. The USD/JPY pair reached a one-month high of ¥147.00, supported by improved risk sentiment. However, by May 16, the Japanese Yen gained ground, with USD/JPY falling to ¥144.91, as Japan’s GDP data highlighted a quarterly contraction.
On May 15, the British pound (GBPUSD) saw volatility after the UK released stronger-than-expected GDP data. GBP/USD initially rose to $1.3304 but later fell under selling pressure. The US dollar later pared back some gains as forex markets adjusted to the trade deal’s broader implications.
Commodities
Gold (XAUUSD) prices, a traditional safe-haven asset, declined as trade tensions eased. On May 12, gold fell below $3,300 per ounce as traders priced in reduced geopolitical risks. By May 15, prices dropped further to under $3,150, marking a sharp retreat from recent highs. This decline reflected a shift in investor preference toward riskier assets like equities and cryptocurrencies.
Cryptocurrencies
The cryptocurrency market saw significant gains, buoyed by the risk-on sentiment following the trade deal. On May 12, Bitcoin (BTC.X) climbed to $106,000, just $3,000 shy of its all-time high, marking a 40% increase from its April low of $75,000. Ethereum (ETH.X) outperformed, surging above $2,700 on May 14 with a remarkable 50% weekly gain, pushing its market cap above $320 billion. Despite some outflows from Bitcoin ETFs ($91 million on May 13), the crypto market remained robust, supported by broader market optimism.
Economic Indicators and Policy Developments
Economic data releases provided critical context for market movements. On May 15, the US Retail Sales Report for April was released, with expectations of flat month-on-month growth, potentially signaling a slowdown in consumer spending. Additionally, US CPI inflation for April cooled to a four-year low of 2.3%, raising speculation about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.
In the UK, Q1 GDP growth of 1.3% year-on-year exceeded consensus estimates of 1.2%, with quarterly growth at 0.7% (above 0.6%) and March monthly growth at 0.2% (above 0%). Japan’s Q1 2025 GDP contracted by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter but grew 1.7% year-on-year, supported by a 0.6% rise in domestic demand.
Other global indicators on May 16 included Malaysia’s Q1 GDP growth of 4.4%, Japan’s March capacity utilization decline of 2.4%, and France’s Q1 ILO unemployment rate of 7.4%. These data points underscored the varied pace of global economic recovery.
Summary
The week of May 12–16, 2025, was a turning point for financial markets, driven by the US-China trade deal’s tariff reductions. Equities rallied, with the Nasdaq entering a bull market and the S&P 500 erasing year-to-date losses. Cryptocurrencies, particularly Ethereum, saw explosive gains, while gold prices fell as safe-haven demand waned. Currency markets reflected mixed economic signals, with the US dollar initially gaining but later ceding ground to the Yen. Economic data from the US, UK, and Japan highlighted both resilience and challenges, setting the stage for continued market focus on trade developments and monetary policy.
Looking Ahead
- Trade Negotiations: Investors will track progress in US-China talks as the 90-day truce unfolds, with potential implications for global supply chains and market sentiment.
- Economic Data: Upcoming US consumer confidence and manufacturing PMI reports will provide further clarity on economic health.
- Central Bank Policies: Meetings of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank could influence markets, particularly if rate cut expectations grow following the US CPI’s decline to 2.3%.
Contributor
Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
QQQ's Stochastic Oscillator remains in oversold zone for 1 day
Be on the lookout for a price bounce soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where QQQ's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
QQQ moved above its 50-day moving average on August 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for QQQ crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on August 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where QQQ advanced for three days, in of 372 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on August 18, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on QQQ as a result. In of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for QQQ turned negative on August 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where QQQ declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
QQQ broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for QQQ entered a downward trend on August 07, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
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