Charles Schwab (SCHW): Q1 2026 Earnings Preview and What Investors Should Watch
Key Takeaways
- Analysts expect Q1 2026 EPS of approximately $1.35-$1.39, reflecting about 30% year-over-year growth.
- Consensus revenue estimate stands at $6.39-$6.4 billion, up roughly 14% from Q1 2025.
- Total client assets hit a record $12.22 trillion in February 2026, up 19% year-over-year.
- Strong trends in net interest revenue (NIR) and trading activity expected to drive results, with NIR consensus at $3.19 billion.
- Company reaffirmed FY2026 EPS guidance of $5.70-$5.80 in recent previews.
- Core net new assets (NNA) remain robust, with adjusted February flows near $50 billion excluding one-time items.
Earnings Context and Why This Report Matters for SCHW Investors
As a long-time follower of the brokerage sector, I always look forward to Charles Schwab (SCHW)'s quarterly earnings. The firm reports on a calendar-quarter basis, so Q1 2026 spans January through March, and this release comes at a key moment with strong client growth and ongoing market volatility. Total client assets stood at $11.90 trillion at the end of 2025, marking an 18% year-over-year increase driven by $519 billion in full-year core net new assets (NNA). That momentum carried into February, when assets reached a record $12.22 trillion. Investors like us will be paying close attention to updates on net interest revenue (NIR) from client cash and loans, trading volumes, and how the company manages expenses in this high-interest-rate environment. Historically, when SCHW beats estimates, the shares tend to respond positively, which highlights its competitive position in the brokerage industry.
What Wall Street Expects from Q1 2026
From what I see in the analyst consensus, Wall Street is anticipating a solid quarter for SCHW. The EPS estimate ranges from $1.35 to $1.39 per share, representing more than 30% growth from the $1.01 reported in Q1 2025, drawn from about 20 analysts. Revenue is projected at $6.39-$6.4 billion, a 14% increase year-over-year. This growth should come from NIR at $3.19 billion (up 18%) on average interest-earning assets of $439.6 billion, trading revenue of $1.08 billion (up 18.4%), and asset management fees of $1.74 billion (up 14%).
SCHW has a strong history of meeting or beating expectations—in Q4 2025, adjusted EPS came in at $1.39 right on target, with net revenues of $6.34 billion, up 19%. Client metrics continue to be crucial, including core NNA and daily average revenue trades (DARTs), which set records in recent periods. I'll be watching for any updates on FY2026 EPS guidance of $5.70-$5.80 and expense growth projections. One thing that stands out is that SCHW shares have risen after earnings in 9 of the last 12 reports.
Market Sentiment Ahead of the April 16 Release
Heading into the Q1 earnings on April 16, sentiment around SCHW feels cautiously optimistic, supported by February's record $12.22 trillion in client assets and robust DARTs. Options pricing suggests a potential ±4% move post-earnings, in line with historical patterns. That said, risks like slower NNA growth or NIR compression from deposit shifts are on my radar. The shares have climbed on positive previews, such as the February activity data, though broader concerns about interest rates could limit the upside. If results meet or beat consensus, the historical tendency for positive reactions could play out again.
Using Tickeron’s AI Screener in My Analysis
In reviewing SCHW's position, I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener, which helps me filter stocks based on technical patterns, fundamentals, and AI-driven signals. This tool scans thousands of stocks and ETFs with customizable criteria like industry, market cap, indicators, and performance metrics, making it easier to spot trade ideas and opportunities. I find it particularly useful for comparing SCHW to peers efficiently—worth exploring if you're building your own watchlist.
Looking Ahead: FY2026 Outlook and Metrics to Track
Once Q1 numbers are out, attention will turn to SCHW's trajectory for FY2026, backed by its client-focused growth strategy. The reaffirmed EPS guidance of $5.70-$5.80 points to continued expansion, with record 46.5 million accounts and stronger ties through managed investing and lending—bank loans reached $58 billion by the end of 2025.
Key areas I'm monitoring include core NNA trends; the $519 billion for full-year 2025 (5.1% organic growth) sets a high standard. Client cash levels will influence NIR, which was $3.2 billion in Q4 2025. DARTs and margin balances (averaging $112 billion in Q4) remain important as trading activity stays elevated. Expense control is critical too, with Q4 pre-tax margins above 50%. Potential rate cuts could squeeze NIR but support lending growth. Other catalysts include the Forge Global acquisition closing in the first half of 2026 and ongoing monthly activity reports. Balanced progress in advisor services—where SCHW is the #1 RIA custodian—and retail segments will indicate overall resilience.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
SCHW in downward trend: 10-day moving average moved below 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026
The 10-day moving average for SCHW crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 04, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SCHW as a result. In 47 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
SCHW moved below its 50-day moving average on September 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SCHW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Aroon Indicator for SCHW entered a downward trend on October 05, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SCHW's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 24 of 33 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.15% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SCHW advanced for three days, in 190 of 325 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
SCHW may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SCHW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.870) is normal, around the industry mean (4.351). P/E Ratio (17.905) is within average values for comparable stocks, (30.023). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.832) is also within normal values, averaging (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (7.148) is also within normal values, averaging (16.763).
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General Information
a provider of securities brokerage and other financial services
Industry InvestmentBanksBrokers
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