Cloudflare (NET): What to Expect from Q1 2026 Earnings
Key Takeaways
- Analysts expect Q1 2026 revenue of around $622 million, a 29.8% increase from $479 million in Q1 2025.
- Consensus non-GAAP EPS is projected at $0.23, up 43.8% year-over-year from $0.16.
- Company guidance from Q4 calls for $620-621 million in revenue, aligning closely with estimates.
- Investors watching dollar-based net retention (DBNR, a measure of revenue retention and expansion from existing customers), expected near 120% after Q4's 120% reading.
- Large customers (>$100K ARR) hit 4,298 in Q4 2025, up 23%; further growth anticipated.
- AI-driven demand for Workers platform and agentic internet trends could boost key metrics.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Cloudflare's (NET) Q1 2026 earnings, set for release after market close on May 7, 2026, for the quarter ended March 31, come on the heels of strong momentum from Q4 2025. That quarter posted $614.5 million in revenue, up 34% year-over-year and beating estimates by 4%, alongside non-GAAP EPS of $0.28 that exceeded forecasts. The company wrapped 2025 with more than 332,000 paying customers and clear AI tailwinds, including agent-driven traffic that doubled early in 2026. For me, this report is a key test of whether NET can sustain enterprise adoption, profitability leverage, and its guidance for full-year 2026 revenue of $2.79-2.80 billion. In the competitive cloud security space, strong results on revenue and DBNR could reinforce Cloudflare's leadership in edge network technology.
Earnings Expectations
Wall Street looks for Q1 revenue of $621.9-622.6 million, marking 29.6-29.8% growth from Q1 2025's $479.1 million, according to Zacks and Yahoo Finance consensus figures. This lines up well with Cloudflare's Q4 guidance of $620-621 million. Non-GAAP EPS consensus is $0.23, a 43.8% increase from $0.16 a year ago, backed by operating leverage and gross margins above 78%.
From what I see, key metrics like DBNR—which hit 120% in Q4 2025, up from 111% in Q1 2025—will be in sharp focus, with analysts expecting it to hold around 118-120%. Large customers (those with >$100K annualized revenue run rate, or ARR) rose 23% to 4,298, accounting for 73% of revenue, and I anticipate more additions. Demand for AI products such as Workers AI and Gateway stands out, evidenced by Q4's record $42.5 million ACV deal that highlights enterprise momentum. Historically, Cloudflare has beaten revenue estimates—Q4 topped by $23 million—and the stock has averaged +3.6% moves post-earnings. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to gauge how NET stacks up against industry peers on these patterns.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into earnings is cautiously optimistic. NET is up 26% YTD through May 6, 2026, outpacing the S&P 500's 7.6% gain, even after a 36% drawdown earlier from macro pressures. Q4's beat sparked +5-15% gains, though April tariff fears and AI competition worries cooled some enthusiasm. Risks include potential EPS guide shortfalls, as seen in Q4's full-year figure below consensus, or DBNR dipping under 118%. Implied volatility points to a +/-10-11% move, with bulls focused on AI agent growth and bears mindful of the 130x EV/EBITDA valuation.
Why I Rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener
In my own research process, Tickeron’s AI Screener has become a go-to tool for efficiently scanning stocks and ETFs. It leverages AI to filter based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and signals, letting me customize by industry, market cap, indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. This helps uncover trade ideas, trending stocks, breakouts, and opportunities faster than manual methods. I’m watching NET closely through its lens ahead of earnings—it’s streamlined how I approach setups like this.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Cloudflare guided full-year 2026 revenue to $2.79-2.80 billion, implying 28-29% growth that tops consensus of $2.74-2.80 billion. This extends Q4's momentum, with AI agents boosting traffic and Workers platform adoption.
Post-earnings, I’ll be tracking Q2 guidance alongside updates on DBNR, large customer adds, and RPO (remaining performance obligations, or committed future revenue backlog). Q4 current RPO grew 34%, pointing to pipeline strength. AI demand through Workers AI inference and Gateway for model context is crucial, especially with agent traffic doubling early 2026, which could speed expansion. Other elements include CapEx at 12-15% of revenue from memory costs, though free cash flow margins improved to 16% in Q4. The enterprise shift (73% revenue from large customers) and public sector wins face rivals like Akamai and Fastly. Investor Day on June 9 could shed more light on the agentic internet strategy. In my view, balanced attention to guidance, margins, and AI metrics will define the 2026 path.
Disclaimer
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Momentum Indicator for NET turns negative, indicating new downward trend
NET saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on May 08, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 85 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 85 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for NET moved out of overbought territory on May 08, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 37 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 37 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NET turned negative on May 11, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
NET moved below its 50-day moving average on May 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NET declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
NET broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for NET crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on April 24, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The 50-day moving average for NET moved above the 200-day moving average on May 06, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NET advanced for three days, in of 339 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 284 cases where NET Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NET’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 95, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (44.643) is normal, around the industry mean (14.329). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (124.458). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.377) is also within normal values, averaging (1.553). NET has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.029). P/S Ratio (28.986) is also within normal values, averaging (163.493).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a company, which engages in the provision of cloud-based services to secure websites
Industry ComputerCommunications
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