Coffee Competition in China Grows, but Starbucks (SBUX, $65.69) Remains Relevant
Luckin Coffee, a 15-month-old Chinese coffee startup, is already operational in nearly 2,000 stores in China and is expected to reach 4,500 stores by the end of the year. Targeting low cost real estate and offering affordable coffee to young professionals, Luckin is a technology-forward startup that has already made name for itself in a short span of time.
Should Luckin's growth worry Starbucks?
It hasn't worried analysts yet, who maintain an overweight on Starbucks with a $70 price target.
Luckin is still a start-up, and in China per-capita coffee consumption is less than one cup/year compared to 300 cups in the U.S. So, there is an ample opportunity for growth for both companies.
Second, Starbucks also has a strong presence in China through its 3,251 stores, and its recent collaboration with UberEats is expected to act as a catalyst in further strengthening its foothold. Starting Wednesday, UberEats is launching Starbucks delivery in San Francisco that will be soon expanded into other U.S cities along with a test program in London. Also, the company plans add 6,000 new stores in China by 2022, therefore further enhancing its presence.
Finally, its recent licensing deal with Nestle S A/S ADR to expand greater in-home food consumption may prove to be a key catalyst for Starbucks.
SBUX's RSI Indicator stays in oversold zone for 2 days
It is expected that a price bounce should occur soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +3.37% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SBUX advanced for three days, in 169 of 297 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
SBUX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 04, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SBUX as a result. In 53 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SBUX turned negative on August 31, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 38 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 75%.
SBUX moved below its 50-day moving average on September 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SBUX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 10, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SBUX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
The Aroon Indicator for SBUX entered a downward trend on September 11, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 22 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (5.553). P/E Ratio (57.075) is within average values for comparable stocks, (39.610). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.184) is also within normal values, averaging (1.640). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.029) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.943) is also within normal values, averaging (2.744).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SBUX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SBUX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a producer of coffee and tea
Industry Restaurants
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