GET DAILY SIGNALSConocoPhillips Trying to Break Out of Downward Trend
Oil exploration and production company ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) has been trending lower for the last year and a rally over the last two months may have investors feeling optimistic. However, there are a number of indicators that may prevent the rally from continuing and those indicators come from all angles—fundamental, sentiment, and technical analysis.
Let’s look at the technical side first. Conoco has jumped sharply since mid-August as oil prices rallied as well. Unfortunately for Conoco shareholders the stock is now facing resistance in two forms. We see on the weekly chart that over the last nine months a downward sloped trend channel has formed with the highs from the first quarter forming the upper rail. The lows from last December and August connect nicely to form the parallel lower rail. The rally in the last two months brought the stock up to the upper rail, but the stock couldn’t break through the resistance and has since fallen.
The second layer of resistance comes from the 52-week moving average. It is in such close proximity to the upper rail that you can barely see where it is right now. This could make it very difficult for the stock to move higher in the coming months.
Turning our attention to the fundamental indicators, Conoco saw its earnings decline by 7% in the second quarter and the upcoming third quarter report is expected to show a decline of 28.7%. The company reported EPS of $1.36 in the third quarter of 2018 and right now the consensus estimate is for the company to report EPS of $0.97. For 2019 as a whole, analysts expect to see the company’s earnings decline by 11%.
Earnings aren’t the only indicator that is declining either. Revenue was down by 9% in the second quarter and analysts expect revenue to decline by 9.3% for 2019.
Conoco does have some positive fundamental indicators working in its favor. The return on equity is at 17.1% and its profit margin is at 25.2%. The ROE is in the average range for most companies and the profit margin is above average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 74 indicates that Conoco is slightly overvalued in the industry. A rating of 1 points to the most undervalued stocks, while a rating of 100 points to the most overvalued stocks. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. The current valuation isn’t bad with a P/E ratio of 9.34. Unfortunately with earnings and revenue declining the forward P/E is at 13.72. In most instances when a company is doing really well, the forward P/E tends to be lower than the trailing P/E.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for Conoco is 85, pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents. With the earnings expected to decline in the current year and earnings expected to grow by only 5% for 2020, the current PEG ratio for Conoco is only 0.16. The average PEG ratio for the oil and gas exploration and production sector is at 1.07.
Despite the downward trend in the chart and the drop in earnings and revenue, the sentiment toward Conoco is still really bullish. There are 21 analysts covering the stock with 18 “buy” ratings and three “hold” ratings. This puts the buy percentage at 85.7% and that is a much higher buy percentage than the average stock.
The short interest ratio for ConocoPhillips is only 1.6 and that is below average. This also indicates greater bullish sentiment than the average stock. The average short interest ratio tends to fall in the 2.7 to 3.3 range.
When you combine the declining earnings and revenue with the downward trend in the stock it isn’t exactly encouraging for the stock moving forward. When you add in the fact that there is more optimism being displayed toward the stock than the average stock, you get a scenario that tends to point toward the stock moving lower in the months ahead.
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COP in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026
The 10-day moving average for COP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 15 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on COP as a result. In 69 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for COP just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where COP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
COP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.33% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where COP advanced for three days, in 231 of 344 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 204 of 309 cases where COP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 66%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where COP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
COP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. COP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.832) is normal, around the industry mean (3.876). P/E Ratio (20.374) is within average values for comparable stocks, (4.118). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.066) is also within normal values, averaging (1.958). Dividend Yield (0.022) settles around the average of (0.045) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.573) is also within normal values, averaging (5.980).
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General Information
a producer of wholesales oil and natural gas
Industry OilGasProduction
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