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Apr 04, 2019

Constellation (STZ, $187.09) beats fiscal Q4 earnings estimates, says cheers to beer

Constellation Brands fiscal fourth quarter earnings surpassed analysts’ expectations, largely in part due to the beverage company’s beer sales. The company is also pulling out from its low-end wine brands, apparently to focus on better selling products.

Comparable earnings for the three months ending February came in at $1.84 per share, down -3.15% from the year-ago quarter, but higher than the Street estimate of $1.72 per share.

The company’s sales of $1.797 billion also beat analysts' estimates of $1.73 billion. Sales were also +2% higher compared to the year-ago period.

As it is, consumers are increasingly adopting healthier lifestyles and food habits. People who still consume alcohol are apparently preferring higher-quality wine or premium beer.  It is probably this shift in consumer choices that has led Constellation to re-allocate its business more towards beer and other high-end beverages.

On Wednesday, Constellation announced plans to sell off about 30 brands from its wine and spirits portfolio to E. & J. Gallo Winery for $1.7 billion. The company will also be launching its first ever non-beer beverage, named Corona Refresca, during its first quarter.

For the latest reported quarter, Constellation’s beer sales climbed +9.3% year-over-year to $1.09 billion. According to the company, its beer business was the top U.S. market share gainer during the holiday season. It mentioned its brands Modelo Especial, Corona Premier and Corona Familiar as major contributors to its solid beer sales.

Sales from its wine and spirits segment, on the other hand, plunged -7.6% year-over-year to $707.1 million. 

For fiscal full-year 2020, Constellation forecasts that its comparable earnings would  range between $8.50 and $8.80 per share, excluding Canopy Growth equity earnings (Constellation bought a 38% stake in the marijuana company last year, as a sign of its plans to expand footprints in the cannabis space). The company hopes to have a 7%-9% growth in operating income from its beer division, while anticipating wine and spirits to be hit by -30% to -35% decline in operating incomes.

 

 

Related Ticker: STZ

STZ's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for STZ turned positive on February 26, 2024. Looking at past instances where STZ's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on February 22, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on STZ as a result. In of 93 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

STZ moved above its 50-day moving average on February 20, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where STZ advanced for three days, in of 342 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.

The 10-day moving average for STZ crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on February 20, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where STZ declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for STZ entered a downward trend on February 16, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.769) is normal, around the industry mean (2.793). P/E Ratio (28.665) is within average values for comparable stocks, (29.418). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.077) is also within normal values, averaging (2.150). Dividend Yield (0.014) settles around the average of (0.024) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.776) is also within normal values, averaging (5.293).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. STZ’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Anheuser-Busch INBEV SA/NV (NYSE:BUD), Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ), Molson Coors Beverage Company (NYSE:TAP).

Industry description

The alcoholic beverage market includes beer, wine, and spirits. From $230 billion in 2015, the industry has grown to around $250 billion by 2019. In recent years, alcoholic beverage makers have been looking to expand distribution and purchase channels, such as through online stores (e.g. e-commerce platform Drizly) and convenience stores. Anheuser-Busch In Bev and Diageo are major global alcoholic beverage companies, while U.S.-owned companies include Constellation Brands and Brown-Forman Corp. among several others.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Beverages: Alcoholic Industry is 19.79B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 2.66K to 19.33T. PBGDF holds the highest valuation in this group at 19.33T. The lowest valued company is WBEVQ at 2.66K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Beverages: Alcoholic Industry was 0%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 1%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9%. MXGBF experienced the highest price growth at 21%, while BRZV experienced the biggest fall at -29%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Beverages: Alcoholic Industry was -35%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 92% and the average quarterly volume growth was -41%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 49
P/E Growth Rating: 71
Price Growth Rating: 51
SMR Rating: 72
Profit Risk Rating: 84
Seasonality Score: -43 (-100 ... +100)
Related Portfolios: CONSUMER STAPLES ETFs
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STZDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

an alcoholic beverages distributor

Industry BeveragesAlcoholic

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Beverages Alcoholic
Address
207 High Point Drive
Phone
+1 585 678-7100
Employees
10700
Web
https://www.cbrands.com
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STZ and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, STZ has been loosely correlated with TAP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 45% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if STZ jumps, then TAP could also see price increases.

1D
1W
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NAME
Correlation
To STZ
1D Price
Change %
STZ100%
+0.11%
TAP - STZ
45%
Loosely correlated
+0.03%
NAPA - STZ
38%
Loosely correlated
+1.58%
MGPI - STZ
35%
Loosely correlated
+0.91%
SAM - STZ
34%
Loosely correlated
+2.93%
DEO - STZ
33%
Poorly correlated
+1.26%
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