D-Wave Quantum QBTS: Can Shares Reach $35 for a +100% Gain?
Key Takeaways
- The selected price target is $35 per share, roughly double D-Wave Quantum's recent trading price and closely aligned with the Wall Street consensus.
- The strongest bullish factors are a Strong Buy analyst consensus, a record bookings backlog, and new U.S. government funding.
- The biggest obstacles are steep losses, heavy cash burn, an extremely high valuation, and potential shareholder dilution.
- Key technical levels include the 52-week range of roughly $12.75 to $46.75, with the $35 target sitting well above current prices but below the prior peak.
- Reaching $35 would likely require sustained conversion of backlog into revenue and continued investor appetite for speculative quantum names.
Why the $35 Target Draws Attention
D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS), a developer of quantum computing systems and software, has become one of the most closely followed pure-play names in the quantum sector. With shares trading near $17.50 and the 52-week range spanning from $12.75 to $46.75, investors are actively debating whether the stock can climb back toward the mid-$30s.
The $35 price target is not arbitrary. It closely matches the average analyst price target of about $35.24, giving it a concrete anchor in public market discussion rather than a purely psychological milestone. Reaching that level would represent roughly a 100% gain from current prices, making it a meaningful but not implausible objective.
D-Wave's Current Standing
D-Wave is the first commercial quantum computing company, selling access to quantum annealing systems designed for optimization problems and expanding into gate-model computing through its acquisition of Quantum Circuits. The company generated about $24.6 million in revenue in fiscal 2025, a sharp increase from roughly $8.8 million the prior year, though it remains deeply unprofitable with a net loss that widened substantially during the same period.
The company holds a sizable cash position, ending recent quarters with more than $500 million in cash and marketable securities, and has finalized an agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce for up to $100 million in additional funding. That liquidity provides a runway to fund years of research and development, but it does not eliminate the company's ongoing cash burn, which has run into the tens of millions of dollars per quarter. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Factors That Could Push QBTS Higher
The bull case for QBTS reaching $35 rests on accelerating commercial traction. First-half bookings reportedly surged more than 1,000% year over year, and remaining performance obligations climbed to roughly $42 million, reflecting a record backlog that analysts expect to convert into revenue over the following year.
D-Wave's dual-track strategy also gives it exposure to a wider share of the quantum market. Its annealing systems are already being used for practical optimization work, while its push into gate-model systems aims at the longer-term goal of fault-tolerant computing. Because the company's newest quantum systems sell for more than $20 million, even a modest increase in annual system deliveries can have an outsized effect on reported revenue.
Broader sector momentum matters as well. Positive developments from peers such as IonQ (IONQ) and Rigetti Computing (RGTI) have historically lifted the entire quantum group, and D-Wave tends to trade with high sensitivity to such news.
Risks That Could Hold the Stock Back
The bear case is equally clear. D-Wave's valuation remains extreme, with a market capitalization of roughly $6.5 billion against revenue still measured in the tens of millions of dollars. On a forward price-to-sales basis, the stock trades at a premium that even optimistic analysts describe as difficult to justify on near-term fundamentals.
Losses are also widening as the company funds dual hardware roadmaps, and continued capital raises remain a possibility. Dilution has already more than doubled the share count over recent years, and future equity offerings could weigh on per-share value. Finally, the stock carries a high beta and has shown a tendency to move on external sentiment rather than company-specific news, making sustained rallies harder to maintain.
What Analysts Are Saying
Wall Street remains broadly optimistic. Of the analysts covering the stock, the clear majority rate it a Buy, producing a Strong Buy consensus with an average 12-month target near $35. Individual targets span a wide range, from $22 on the conservative end to $43 at the high end, with several firms clustering their targets between $30 and $40.
This dispersion highlights both the opportunity and the uncertainty. The average target implies roughly a 100% upside from current levels, but the gap between the low and high estimates reflects genuine disagreement about how quickly D-Wave can convert its backlog into revenue.
Important Technical Levels to Watch
From a technical analysis perspective, the most relevant reference points are the 52-week high near $46.75 and the 52-week low near $12.75. The $35 target sits between these extremes and would require the stock to clear a series of supply zones formed during its earlier decline from the peak.
The $30 level, which several analysts have cited as an intermediate objective, represents a logical first milestone, while $35 would mark a more decisive confirmation of a sustained recovery. The stock's high volatility means these levels should be viewed as zones rather than precise turning points.
Final Assessment
Whether D-Wave Quantum can reach $35 depends less on the technology and more on execution. The company's record backlog, government backing, and strong analyst consensus provide a credible foundation, but the path from bookings to revenue remains the central test. A valuation near 150 times forward sales leaves little room for error, and continued cash burn or dilution could delay or derail the advance.
The $35 target appears achievable if revenue conversion accelerates and quantum-sector sentiment remains supportive, but it is far from guaranteed. Investors should monitor quarterly bookings, system deliveries, cash balances, and any changes to the funding roadmap, as these will ultimately determine whether the stock can close the gap between its current price and the consensus target. One thing that stands out is how sensitive the name remains to broader quantum news flow.
Monitoring with AI Signals
I find Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals useful for keeping an eye on names like this. The tool scans thousands of stocks and ETFs with AI to generate Buy, Sell, or Hold signals based on technical conditions, helping me spot shifts without constant manual checks. It serves as a practical complement when assessing whether a target like $35 remains realistic.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
QBTS's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for QBTS turned positive on September 17, 2026. Looking at past instances where QBTS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 32 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 49 of 57 cases where QBTS's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Following a +1.02% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where QBTS advanced for three days, in 166 of 195 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
QBTS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on QBTS as a result. In 62 of 67 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
QBTS moved below its 50-day moving average on August 17, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where QBTS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
The Aroon Indicator for QBTS entered a downward trend on September 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. QBTS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.204) is normal, around the industry mean (7.364). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (49.824). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (23.980). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.004) among similar stocks. QBTS's P/S Ratio (476.190) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (51.774).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. QBTS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock worse than average.
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