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Aug 31, 2020

Dow Jones Industrial Average Appears to Be Getting Some Upgrades

On August 24, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that it was making changes to the makeup of the Dow Jones Industrial Index. Exxon Mobil (XOM), Pfizer (PFE), and Raytheon (RTX) will be removed at the market open on August 31. Amgen (AMGN), Honeywell (HON), and Salesforce.com will be added to the index.

The changes mark the first time since September 2013 that multiple companies have been dropped and added at the same time. Two of the changes seem to be trading out similar companies. Amgen for Pfizer makes sense with both being healthcare companies. Honeywell for Raytheon makes sense since both are industrial companies with ties to the defense industry.

The one that doesn’t make much sense is swapping out Exxon Mobil and replacing it with Salesforce.com. Swapping out an oil company for a cloud-based software company seems a little odd. With the removal of Exxon Mobil, Chevron will be the only energy sector stock left in the index. The index will have six tech sector companies once Salesforce is added.

Looking at the new stocks versus the old stocks through the Tickeron Screener, it appears that the Dow is upgrading to higher rated stocks. On the fundamental side, Amgen scores slightly better than Pfizer with three positive indicators to only one negative indicator. Pfizer has three positive ones and two negative ones.

Honeywell scores considerably better than Raytheon with three bullish indicators and only one negative. Raytheon’s results are exactly the opposite with one bullish and three bearish indicators.

Exxon Mobil actually scores a little better than Salesforce on the fundamentals. Exxon gets two positive readings and two negative readings while Salesforce gets two positives and three negative readings.

On the technical side of the equation, Salesforce does considerably better with three bullish signals and zero bearish signals. Exxon gets one bullish and one bearish signal at this time.

Amgen does well on the technical side as well with four bullish signals to only one bearish signal. Pfizer is completely neutral with no bullish or bearish signals.

Raytheon does a little better on the technical analysis with two bullish signals to only one for Honeywell. Raytheon does have one bearish indicator while Honeywell doesn’t have any bearish signals.

In addition to being curious about how the stocks being removed compared to the stocks being added, I was also curious about the history of component changes. There have been lots of changes since 1929, so I focused on the instances where there multiple changes and the ones that have happened in the last 40 years. My goal was to find out if there was a pattern to how the market reacted after changes were implemented.

I couldn’t find a discernible pattern, but there were two instances where multiple changes were made and then a market correction started within the next six months. On March 12, 1987, Inco Limited and Owens-Illinois were replaced with Boeing and Coca-Cola. Of course on October 19, 1987 the market crashed in one of the worst days in market history.

The second instance occurred on November 1, 1999 and it saw Chevron, Goodyear, Sears, and Union Carbide removed from the index. The additions made at that time were Home Depot, SBC Communications, Intel, and Microsoft. Those last two were the interesting additions, at least to me. These were the first real tech companies that had been added to the index. The Dow would peak in January 2000 and proceed to fall sharply over the next few years before finally reversing in early 2003.

Another interesting note about the upcoming changes is that Honeywell was replaced by Chevron on February 19, 2008. As I mentioned earlier, Chevron will be the lone energy sector representative after the changes on August 31. Honeywell is now moving back in to the index. So Chevron has been removed and moved back in and now Honeywell is moving back in after being removed.

The overall structure of the index isn’t changing a great deal in terms of the sector representation, with the exception of Salesforce replacing Exxon Mobil. I would be more concerned about the changes possibly signaling a turning point in the market if we were seeing major changes to the sector representation.

Related Ticker: XOM

XOM in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on February 02, 2024

The 10-day moving average for XOM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on February 02, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on February 15, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on XOM as a result. In of 99 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XOM just turned positive on January 25, 2024. Looking at past instances where XOM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

XOM moved above its 50-day moving average on January 25, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XOM advanced for three days, in of 323 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 249 cases where XOM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for XOM moved out of overbought territory on January 31, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XOM declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

XOM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 21, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 73, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. XOM’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: XOM's P/B Ratio (2.052) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.154). P/E Ratio (11.906) is within average values for comparable stocks, (22.140). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.768) is also within normal values, averaging (4.065). Dividend Yield (0.035) settles around the average of (0.105) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.281) is also within normal values, averaging (0.874).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM), Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX), Petroleo Brasileiro Sa-Petrobras ADS (REP 1 Common Share) (NYSE:PBR), BP plc (NYSE:BP), Suncor Energy (NYSE:SU), YPF Sociedad Anonima (NYSE:YPF).

Industry description

Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Integrated Oil Industry is 57.99B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 39.76K to 420.29B. XOM holds the highest valuation in this group at 420.29B. The lowest valued company is PGAS at 39.76K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Integrated Oil Industry was -1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -0%, and the average quarterly price growth was 0%. EIPAF experienced the highest price growth at 8%, while SEGYY experienced the biggest fall at -38%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Integrated Oil Industry was 45%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 9% and the average quarterly volume growth was 32%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 48
P/E Growth Rating: 49
Price Growth Rating: 51
SMR Rating: 44
Profit Risk Rating: 73
Seasonality Score: 16 (-100 ... +100)
View a ticker or compare two or three
XOMDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a distributer of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products

Industry IntegratedOil

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Integrated Oil
Address
5959 Las Colinas Boulevard
Phone
+1 972 940-6000
Employees
62300
Web
https://www.exxonmobil.com
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XOM and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, XOM has been closely correlated with CVX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if XOM jumps, then CVX could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To XOM
1D Price
Change %
XOM100%
+1.26%
CVX - XOM
84%
Closely correlated
+0.53%
SU - XOM
80%
Closely correlated
+1.69%
IMO - XOM
77%
Closely correlated
+1.76%
BP - XOM
77%
Closely correlated
+1.86%
CVE - XOM
74%
Closely correlated
+1.55%
More
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