GET DAILY SIGNALSEstee Lauder (EL,$184.71) shares decline, on lower-than-expected guidance, despite earnings beat
Estee Lauder shares declined on Thursday, after the cosmetics & skincare company reported better-than-anticipated earnings, but provided guidance below expectation.
For the three months ended Sept. 30, the company’s earnings came in at $1.61 a share, exceeding the $1.60 a share expected by analysts. The figure is also higher than the year-ago quarter’s $1.34 a share.
Revenue of $3.9 billion is up from $3.5 billion a year ago. It is also higher than analysts' forecasts.
CEO Fabrizio Freda indicated that strong international sales, particularly in China and other emerging markets, as well as within the company's skin care category, travel retail and online channels bolstered earnings for the quarter.
However, Estee Lauder now expects second-quarter earnings per share in the range of $1.83 to $1.86, and full-year per-share earnings of $5.85 to $5.93 - both the ranges are below analysts' forecasts. The company is cautious about potential global uncertainties like those related to the U.S.-China trade war, Brexit, and currency volatility. Also, it will be taking charges associated with previously approved restructuring and other activities of around $110 million to $125 million in fiscal, equal to between 24 cents and 27 cents a share – as indicated by the company.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
EL in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026
The 10-day moving average for EL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on EL as a result. In 54 of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for EL just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where EL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
EL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 50-day moving average for EL moved above the 200-day moving average on September 23, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +1.02% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EL advanced for three days, in 182 of 282 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for EL moved out of overbought territory on October 16, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 30 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 23 of the 30 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 77%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
EL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for EL entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. EL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 99 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (10.344) is normal, around the industry mean (21.114). EL's P/E Ratio (217.640) is considerably higher than the industry average of (17.408). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.121) is also within normal values, averaging (1.518). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.034) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.317) is also within normal values, averaging (1.931).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. EL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a company which offers skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care products
Industry HouseholdPersonalCare
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