Estee Lauder (EL,$184.71) shares decline, on lower-than-expected guidance, despite earnings beat
Estee Lauder shares declined on Thursday, after the cosmetics & skincare company reported better-than-anticipated earnings, but provided guidance below expectation.
For the three months ended Sept. 30, the company’s earnings came in at $1.61 a share, exceeding the $1.60 a share expected by analysts. The figure is also higher than the year-ago quarter’s $1.34 a share.
Revenue of $3.9 billion is up from $3.5 billion a year ago. It is also higher than analysts' forecasts.
CEO Fabrizio Freda indicated that strong international sales, particularly in China and other emerging markets, as well as within the company's skin care category, travel retail and online channels bolstered earnings for the quarter.
However, Estee Lauder now expects second-quarter earnings per share in the range of $1.83 to $1.86, and full-year per-share earnings of $5.85 to $5.93 - both the ranges are below analysts' forecasts. The company is cautious about potential global uncertainties like those related to the U.S.-China trade war, Brexit, and currency volatility. Also, it will be taking charges associated with previously approved restructuring and other activities of around $110 million to $125 million in fiscal, equal to between 24 cents and 27 cents a share – as indicated by the company.
EL in -1.87% downward trend, sliding for three consecutive days on March 19, 2025
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where EL declined for three days, in of 310 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on March 10, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on EL as a result. In of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for EL turned negative on March 12, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 61 cases where EL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EL advanced for three days, in of 303 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
EL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (9.542) is normal, around the industry mean (17.160). P/E Ratio (117.853) is within average values for comparable stocks, (204.360). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.715) is also within normal values, averaging (3.832). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.107) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.617) is also within normal values, averaging (115.095).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. EL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. EL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
a company which offers skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care products
Industry HouseholdPersonalCare