Estee Lauder (EL,$184.71) shares decline, on lower-than-expected guidance, despite earnings beat
Estee Lauder shares declined on Thursday, after the cosmetics & skincare company reported better-than-anticipated earnings, but provided guidance below expectation.
For the three months ended Sept. 30, the company’s earnings came in at $1.61 a share, exceeding the $1.60 a share expected by analysts. The figure is also higher than the year-ago quarter’s $1.34 a share.
Revenue of $3.9 billion is up from $3.5 billion a year ago. It is also higher than analysts' forecasts.
CEO Fabrizio Freda indicated that strong international sales, particularly in China and other emerging markets, as well as within the company's skin care category, travel retail and online channels bolstered earnings for the quarter.
However, Estee Lauder now expects second-quarter earnings per share in the range of $1.83 to $1.86, and full-year per-share earnings of $5.85 to $5.93 - both the ranges are below analysts' forecasts. The company is cautious about potential global uncertainties like those related to the U.S.-China trade war, Brexit, and currency volatility. Also, it will be taking charges associated with previously approved restructuring and other activities of around $110 million to $125 million in fiscal, equal to between 24 cents and 27 cents a share – as indicated by the company.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
EL's RSI Indicator leaves overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Oscillator for EL moved out of overbought territory on August 31, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 29 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 24 of the 29 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 24, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on EL as a result. In 65 of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for EL turned negative on September 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 38 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 79%.
EL moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Aroon Indicator for EL entered a downward trend on October 05, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The 50-day moving average for EL moved above the 200-day moving average on September 23, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +3.45% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EL advanced for three days, in 187 of 286 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
EL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. EL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 98 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (9.083) is normal, around the industry mean (18.044). EL's P/E Ratio (191.140) is considerably higher than the industry average of (43.673). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.121) is also within normal values, averaging (1.518). Dividend Yield (0.015) settles around the average of (0.024) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.317) is also within normal values, averaging (1.931).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. EL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a company which offers skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care products
Industry HouseholdPersonalCare
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