On Monday, e-commerce company Etsy's stock dropped premarket Monday after a KeyBanc analyst downgraded it to sector weight from overweight.
Analyst Edward Yruma cited valuation and a lower near-term likelihood of positive earnings revisions as factors behind the revised outlook.
According to Yruma, Etsy has outperformed the broader market substantially since KeyBanc first set an outperform rating on the company in October 2017. But at present, the analyst views the stock's valuation as "fair" and the current consensus analyst expectations "reasonable."
ETSY saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on May 22, 2023. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 49 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 16, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ETSY as a result. In of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ETSY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for ETSY entered a downward trend on May 30, 2023. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for ETSY's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ETSY advanced for three days, in of 337 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
ETSY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ETSY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ETSY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 95, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (21.413) is normal, around the industry mean (18.894). P/E Ratio (34.722) is within average values for comparable stocks, (72.605). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.643) is also within normal values, averaging (2.605). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.039) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.957) is also within normal values, averaging (8.407).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
an online marketplace for buying and selling of handmade and vintage goods
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ETSY has been closely correlated with MELI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ETSY jumps, then MELI could also see price increases.
|MELI - ETSY|
|JMIA - ETSY|
|RVLV - ETSY|
|EBAY - ETSY|
|W - ETSY|