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Harry Richardson's Avatar
published in Blogs
May 25, 2023

Explosive Growth: Nvidia (NVDA) Soars 26% on Impressive Earnings Report

Futures on major indices fell as Fitch placed the AAA rating of the United States on the negative watchlist. The 30-stock index dropped 255.59 points, or 0.77%. The S&P 500 ended the day with a decline of 0.73%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.61%.

Debt ceiling negotiations continued to exert pressure on the key benchmarks. Talks hit a roadblock earlier on Wednesday, but later House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reported that negotiations were progressing successfully. Our robots actively opened short positions yesterday, thereby safeguarding portfolios against potential downturns. In my opinion, the decision on the debt ceiling will continue to weigh on the markets.

In turn, Nvidia reported its first-quarter earnings for fiscal year 2024 on Wednesday, delivering a forecast that exceeded expectations and resulted in a 26% surge in share prices during after-hours trading. Our robots have been exiting positions ahead of the earnings report to mitigate risks, so this development did not have any impact on our profitability.

Earnings Results

For the quarter ending in April 2023, Nvidia (NVDA) reported revenue of $7.19 billion, which was 13.2% lower compared to the same period last year. Earnings per share (EPS) stood at $1.09, down from $1.36 in the previous year's quarter. The consensus estimate for revenue was $6.51 billion, resulting in a positive surprise of 10.50%. EPS exceeded the consensus estimate by 18.48% ($0.92 per share).

Breakdown by Segments:

  • Gaming division revenue: $2.24 billion compared to the average estimate of $1.95 billion from seven analysts. Year-over-year revenue change for this segment was -38.1%.
  • Professional Visualization revenue: $295 million, surpassing the average estimate of $239.93 million. This represents a year-over-year change of -52.6%.
  • Automotive revenue: $296 million, slightly below the average estimate of $313.18 million. However, it reflects a significant year-over-year change of +114.5%.
  • OEM and Other revenue: $77 million compared to the average estimate of $94.68 million. This represents a year-over-year change of -51.3%.
  • Data Center revenue: $4.28 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $3.90 billion. This segment demonstrated a year-over-year change of +14.2%. Nvidia attributed this performance to the demand for its GPU chips from cloud service providers and major consumer internet companies using Nvidia chips for training and deploying generative AI applications such as OpenAI's ChatGPT. Nvidia's performance in the data center solutions segment highlights the increasing importance of AI chips for cloud providers and other companies managing a large number of servers.

MSFT x NVDA

From a product perspective, the most significant announcement for NVDA was the partnership with MSFT. The collaboration between Microsoft and Nvidia involves the integration of Nvidia AI Enterprise into Azure. This integration provides customers with a reliable corporate platform utilizing over 100 integrated tools from both companies. Additionally, users have access to Nvidia HPC resources for AI model utilization. Nvidia is also integrating its Omniverse Cloud into the Azure infrastructure (PAAS model). Omniverse Cloud offers enterprises a complete cloud environment for designing, developing, deploying, and managing industrial applications within the concept of the Metaverse. TAM (Total Addressable Market): The enterprise AI market was valued at $11 billion by the end of 2022 (1/10th of the overall AI market value) and is expected to demonstrate a CAGR of 32% over the next 10 years, reaching $155 billion by the end of 2030. However, this MSFT and NVDA initiative has the potential to significantly accelerate the projected growth rate. As a result, a larger number of suppliers will benefit from this move in the long term. Other AI initiatives: Yesterday, Nvidia also announced a partnership with DELL for the HELIX project, a groundbreaking product aimed at bringing generative AI capabilities to enterprises. The project aims to provide enterprises with a simple and efficient way to use generative AI, allowing them to create new models or customize existing ones using their own data.

Related Ticker: NVDA

NVDA's RSI Indicator peaks and leaves overbought zone

The 10-day RSI Oscillator for NVDA moved out of overbought territory on June 06, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In of the 50 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 73 cases where NVDA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVDA declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

NVDA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 25, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 04, 2023. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NVDA as a result. In of 76 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NVDA just turned positive on May 15, 2023. Looking at past instances where NVDA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVDA advanced for three days, in of 347 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 350 cases where NVDA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 63, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NVDA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: NVDA's P/B Ratio (38.760) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (7.056). NVDA has a moderately high P/E Ratio (200.000) as compared to the industry average of (54.442). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.188) is also within normal values, averaging (2.594). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.024) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (37.175) is also within normal values, averaging (11.883).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd (NYSE:TSM), Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN), Intel Corp (NASDAQ:INTC), QUALCOMM (NASDAQ:QCOM), Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT), Analog Devices (NASDAQ:ADI), Lam Research Corp (NASDAQ:LRCX).

Industry description

The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Semiconductors Industry is 27.48B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 13.43K to 951.2B. NVDA holds the highest valuation in this group at 951.2B. The lowest valued company is CYBL at 13.43K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Semiconductors Industry was 1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 15%, and the average quarterly price growth was 21%. QUIK experienced the highest price growth at 28%, while LAES experienced the biggest fall at -25%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Semiconductors Industry was -48%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -50% and the average quarterly volume growth was -38%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 52
P/E Growth Rating: 55
Price Growth Rating: 49
SMR Rating: 62
Profit Risk Rating: 62
Seasonality Score: 3 (-100 ... +100)
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a manufacturer of computer graphics processors, chipsets, and related multimedia software

Industry Semiconductors

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Semiconductors
Address
2788 San Tomas Expressway
Phone
+1 408 486-2000
Employees
26196
Web
https://www.nvidia.com
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NVDA and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVDA has been closely correlated with ADI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NVDA jumps, then ADI could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To NVDA
1D Price
Change %
NVDA100%
+0.68%
ADI - NVDA
85%
Closely correlated
+0.43%
ASML - NVDA
84%
Closely correlated
-0.58%
AMD - NVDA
83%
Closely correlated
+3.20%
QCOM - NVDA
80%
Closely correlated
+2.37%
MPWR - NVDA
80%
Closely correlated
+0.84%
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