Exxon Mobil Just Bounced Off the Lower Rail of an Upwardly Sloped Channel
Oil giant Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) has been moving higher since hitting a multi-year low in April. The trend higher has been well-defined by an upwardly-sloped trend channel and the stock just hit the lower rail of the channel.
You can see that the 10-day RSI and the daily stochastic readings hit oversold territory in this recent pullback, but the stock has reversed higher in the last four days. This led to a bullish crossover from the stochastic readings.
Exxon will announce earnings on November 2, so there is only about 10 days for this bounce to play out before the earnings report will affect the stock.
The company’s sales and earnings have been declining over the last three years, but the company did report earnings growth of 18% in its last quarterly report and sales were up 27% from the previous year in that report.
The sentiment toward Exxon is interesting, especially the analysts’ ratings. There are seven “buy” ratings on the stock, seven “sell” ratings, and 11 “hold” ratings. It is rare to see a corporate giant like Exxon with more hold and sell ratings than buy ratings.
Analysts expect Exxon to earn $1.23 for the third quarter and that estimate has been ratcheted down from $1.27 only 30 days ago. This tells me that the bar is being lowered and a decent earnings report from the company could send shares higher.
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Harry Richardson — Algorithmic Trader & Strategy Developer Harry is an algorithmic trader specializing in impulse and breakout trading strategies across cryptocurrency and equity markets. With more than 10 years of experience in developing automated trading systems, he focuses on building structured algorithms designed to capture momentum while maintaining strict risk control. His approach combines quantitative analysis, real-market execution, and continuous performance monitoring. Vitalii prioritizes risk management, drawdown control, and strategy stability over short-term optimization, ensuring algorithms are adaptable to changing market conditions. He has developed and tested hundreds of automated strategies, working extensively with live trading environments, forward testing, and portfolio-level algorithm management. His work centers on transforming trading ideas into fully operational, scalable automated systems.
Momentum Indicator for XOM turns positive, indicating new upward trend
XOM saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on September 09, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 90 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 57 of the 90 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 63%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +1.07% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XOM advanced for three days, in 234 of 374 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 189 of 312 cases where XOM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 61%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for XOM moved out of overbought territory on August 24, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 41 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 59%.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XOM turned negative on August 26, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 26 of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 53%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XOM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 43%.
XOM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 18, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 27, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. XOM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 61 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: XOM's P/B Ratio (2.632) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.973). P/E Ratio (21.363) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.317). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.422) is also within normal values, averaging (1.568). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.038) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.942) is also within normal values, averaging (3.901).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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a distributer of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products
Industry IntegratedOil
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