GET DAILY SIGNALSFastly (FSLY) Shares Climb +44.5% Over 30 Days on Strong Q2 Results
Key Takeaways
- Fastly shares climbed about 44.5% over the 30-day period through mid-August 2026, rising from a $20.72 close on July 17 to $29.93 on August 14.
- Second-quarter results were the central catalyst: revenue rose 23% year over year to $183.3 million, non-GAAP EPS reached $0.15, and management raised full-year guidance.
- Security revenue grew 43% year over year, with DDoS protection and bot management growing at triple-digit rates, reinforcing demand tied to AI and agentic traffic.
- The stock initially pulled back after the report on durability concerns, then rebounded as analysts defended the results and called the selloff an overreaction.
- Over roughly the last three months, the shares have recovered about 76% from a mid-May closing level of $17.00.
Fastly's Business and Market Position
Fastly, Inc. operates a programmable edge cloud platform that helps organizations deliver, secure, and run applications closer to end users. Its revenue streams include Network Services, which covers content delivery, websites, apps, APIs, and digital media; Security, spanning next-generation web application firewall, DDoS protection, bot management, and API protection; and Other products, including Fastly Compute and observability tools. The company competes with providers such as Cloudflare (NET) and Akamai (AKAM). Investors follow FSLY for its platform strategy, rising security and compute mix, improving net retention, and exposure to AI-driven and agentic internet traffic. I checked a few peer comparisons using Tickeron’s AI Screener to get a clearer sense of relative positioning.
Fastly (FSLY) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, FSLY shares advanced approximately 44.5%. Using the nearest trading session to the 30-calendar-day mark, the stock closed at $20.72 on July 17, 2026, and reached the latest available close of $29.93 on August 14, 2026. The path was not linear: shares strengthened into the August 5 earnings release, closed at $26.03 that day, slipped to $22.68 on August 6, and then rallied sharply to finish the period near $30.
The broader quarterly trend is even stronger. From a May 15 close of $17.00 to the August 14 close of $29.93, Fastly rose about 76.1%. That rebound followed a steep early-May selloff, when the stock dropped from $31.57 on May 6 to $19.50 on May 7 after first-quarter results, before stabilizing in the mid-teens in mid-May. From what I see, this recovery has been driven by a steady re-rating around the company’s faster-growing segments.
What Drove FSLY Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The dominant catalyst was Fastly's second-quarter 2026 report, released August 5. Revenue rose 23.3% year over year to $183.32 million, above the roughly $174 million consensus. Non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $0.15, compared with the $0.07 estimate. Non-GAAP gross margin reached a record 65.8%, last-12-month net retention improved to 117%, and remaining performance obligations rose 38% to $341 million. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to $732 million to $746 million and non-GAAP EPS guidance to $0.50 to $0.54.
Security and compute momentum were central to the narrative. Security revenue increased 43% to $41.7 million, or 23% of total revenue, while other revenue, driven by Compute, climbed 69%. Management highlighted triple-digit growth in DDoS protection and bot management and said AI-generated traffic is growing at roughly 6.5 times the rate of human traffic. Product and partnership announcements, including the Skyfire collaboration, a C++ SDK for Fastly Compute, and LALIGA anti-piracy work, added support. I also reviewed recent pattern activity on Tickeron’s AI Real Time Patterns to confirm the post-earnings momentum.
The stock still sold off on August 6 as investors questioned how much of the beat came from episodic live events, including the World Cup, and noted that the top 10 customers represented 37% of revenue. The pullback proved short-lived. Analyst commentary, including an Evercore ISI Outperform rating with a $32 price objective and a bullish KeyBanc view, framed the dip as an overreaction to contract timing and routine lumpiness, and the shares rebounded through August 14.
What Drove FSLY Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
Fastly's three-month advance is best understood as a recovery from a sharp first-quarter earnings reset. In early May, the company reported first-quarter revenue of $173.02 million, up 20% year over year, and adjusted EPS of $0.13, beating estimates. Yet the stock fell roughly 38% on May 7 because core Network Services growth of 11% and already elevated expectations left investors disappointed after a parabolic run. Shares stabilized in the mid-teens and then rebuilt as the market refocused on the faster-growing security and compute segments, record margins, and improved profitability.
Through June and July, improving sentiment around AI-related edge workloads, cross-selling, and operating leverage helped shares climb back above $20. The August second-quarter report then validated the platform strategy with stronger growth, higher guidance, and continued margin expansion, extending the recovery toward $30. One thing that stands out is how quickly sentiment shifted once the durability of the security growth became clearer.
FSLY Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Investors are likely to focus on whether Fastly can sustain security and compute growth while managing customer concentration. The company guided third-quarter revenue to $184 million to $190 million, which implies a sequential step-up but a slightly lower year-over-year growth rate than the second quarter, and management said infrastructure capital spending is expected to run around 10% to 12% of revenue in 2026. Analysts and investors will also watch gross-margin durability, the contribution of episodic events versus recurring demand, and competitive pressure from hyperscaler-affiliated delivery services, Cloudflare (NET), and Akamai (AKAM). Fastly has an analyst day scheduled for September 23, 2026, which may provide additional detail on product strategy and long-term targets. Macroeconomic conditions, valuation sensitivity across high-growth software, and the pace of AI and agentic-traffic monetization are additional factors to monitor. I’m watching this closely as the September event approaches.
Using Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots for Additional Perspective
In my own process, I often turn to Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots to review systematic strategies that have performed well across similar high-growth software names. The page curates top-performing AI-powered trading bots built for thousands of tickers, allowing users to compare approaches by strategy, timeframe, and key metrics before deciding what aligns with their own framework. For traders looking to complement fundamental analysis with data-driven tools, this offers a practical starting point without replacing individual judgment.
Disclaimer
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Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
FSLY's Stochastic Oscillator is remaining in oversold zone for 5 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for FSLY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 18, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Following a +15.90% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FSLY advanced for three days, in 227 of 277 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
FSLY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on FSLY as a result. In 82 of 92 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for FSLY turned negative on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 42 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 90%.
FSLY moved below its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FSLY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
The Aroon Indicator for FSLY entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 9 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.746) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.402). P/E Ratio (-43.962) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.914). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.072) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.222) is also within normal values, averaging (71.128).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FSLY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 48 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. FSLY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
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a providesr of real-time content delivery network services
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