Key Takeaways
Novo Nordisk (NVO) reported Q4 2025 EPS of $1.02, surpassing estimates of $0.92, with revenue of $12.53B vs $11.99B expected.
Full-year 2025 sales rose 10% at constant exchange rates (CER) to DKK 309B, but 2026 guidance anticipates a 5–13% decline at CER due to pricing pressures.
Novartis (NVS) posted Q4 core EPS of $2.03, beating $1.99 estimates; net sales of $13.34B slightly missed consensus. FY sales grew 8%, with core EPS up 17% to $8.98.
NVS reached a 40% core margin ahead of schedule, while 2026 forecasts show low single-digit growth in net sales and a slight decline in core operating income amid patent expirations.
Key growth drivers: NVO’s obesity care surged 31% to DKK 82.3B (Wegovy), NVS saw Kisqali jump 57% to $4.8B.
Both companies face U.S. pricing and competitive pressures, but NVS demonstrates margin resilience, whereas NVO focuses on high-volume growth.
Earnings Context: Why This Comparison Matters
Novo Nordisk’s Q4 results underscore its leadership in GLP-1 therapies like Wegovy and Ozempic. Despite slowing U.S. demand and pricing cuts, NVO delivered 10% FY sales growth, though 2026 guidance is cautious.
In contrast, Novartis provides a lens into diversified pharma resilience. NVS posted steady growth despite generic erosion on Entresto and reached margin targets early. With obesity treatments maturing and oncology/immunology competition intensifying, investors must balance NVO’s high-growth but volatile trajectory against NVS’s stability in a competitive biotech landscape.
Novo Nordisk (NVO) Earnings Highlights
Q4/FY 2025 results (Feb 4, 2026):
Q4 EPS: $1.02 (+$0.10 vs consensus)
Revenue: $12.53B (+4.5% vs $11.99B expected)
Full-year 2025:
Sales: DKK 309.1B, up 10% at CER
Obesity care: DKK 82.3B, up 31%, led by Wegovy
Gross margin: 81%, slightly down due to pricing
2026 guidance: Adjusted sales and operating profit projected -5% to -13% at CER (excluding 340B reversal), reflecting U.S. pricing pressure and competition.
Market reaction: Stock dropped ~15% post-earnings on cautious outlook.
Novartis (NVS) Earnings Highlights
Q4/FY 2025 results (Feb 4, 2026):
Q4 core EPS: $2.03 vs $1.99 estimate
Net sales: $13.34B (-1% cc, impacted by Entresto generics)
Full-year 2025:
Net sales: +8%
Core operating income: +14% to CHF 21.9B
Core EPS: +17% to $8.98
Core margin: 40.1%, reached ahead of schedule
Key growth driver: Kisqali (+57% to $4.8B)
2026 outlook: Net sales expected in low single digits, core operating income slightly down due to patent expirations.
Market reaction: Shares rose on strong execution and margin discipline.
Earnings Comparison and Market Insights
Growth drivers:
NVO: Obesity care (Wegovy) 31%
NVS: Kisqali/Cosentyx mid-teens growth
Margin and risk profile:
NVO: Volume-focused, margins pressured by pricing
NVS: Diversified, oncology/cardio offsetting patent losses
Investor sentiment:
NVS favored for stability and strong margin execution
NVO seen as higher-risk, high-growth, with volatility linked to pricing resets and U.S. competition
AI Trading Bot Perspective
Tickeron’s AI-driven bots, such as the Trend Trader for Beginners Strategy for Large Cap Stocks (60-min TA), track momentum in large-cap stocks like NVO and NVS using 60-minute technical analysis. Backtested for volatile sectors, these bots help investors identify entry and exit points in healthcare equities.
Current Tickeron AI assessment:
Favored stock: NVS
Rationale: Superior earnings quality, achieved margins amid headwinds, balanced growth outlook, and lower volatility. NVS also offers dividend appeal in a maturing GLP-1 market, while NVO faces a pricing reset and high exposure to metabolic therapies
Disclaimers and Limitations
The RSI Oscillator for NVO moved out of oversold territory on March 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 21 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In of the 21 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 58 cases where NVO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on March 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NVO as a result. In of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NVO just turned positive on March 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where NVO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVO advanced for three days, in of 334 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
NVO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
NVO moved below its 50-day moving average on February 03, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NVO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on February 10, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVO declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for NVO entered a downward trend on March 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.688) is normal, around the industry mean (9.327). P/E Ratio (10.783) is within average values for comparable stocks, (22.671). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.707) is also within normal values, averaging (2.276). NVO has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.045) as compared to the industry average of (0.025). P/S Ratio (3.574) is also within normal values, averaging (3.947).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. NVO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NVO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 73, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a developer of pharmaceutical products
Industry PharmaceuticalsMajor