GET DAILY SIGNALSLLY vs JNJ Stock Comparison: Q4 2025 Earnings and 2026 Guidance
Key Takeaways
-
Eli Lilly (LLY) reported Q4 revenue of $19.3B (+43% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $7.54 vs. $6.96 consensus, driven by GLP-1 drugs Mounjaro ($7.4B, +110% YoY) and Zepbound ($4.3B, +123% YoY). Full-year 2025 revenue: $65.2B (+45%). 2026 guidance: $80–83B revenue, non-GAAP EPS $33.50–35.
-
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) posted Q4 sales of $24.6B (+9.1% reported; +7.1% operational), adjusted EPS $2.46 in line with forecasts. Full-year 2025 revenue: $94.2B (+6%). 2026 guidance: ~$100B operational sales, adjusted EPS ~$11.53.
-
Market Reaction: LLY shares rose ~5–8% post-earnings on strong beats and guidance; JNJ dipped 1–2% despite revenue strength, reflecting in-line EPS.
-
LLY provides high-growth exposure to obesity/diabetes; JNJ offers diversified stability across pharmaceuticals and MedTech.
Earnings Context
Eli Lilly’s Q4 results highlight explosive growth from GLP-1 therapies, cementing leadership in obesity and diabetes. The company’s strong revenue beat and robust 2026 guidance illustrate high-growth pharma dynamics. Johnson & Johnson, in contrast, exemplifies a diversified healthcare strategy, combining pharmaceuticals, MedTech, and consumer health for steady expansion. Comparing the two illustrates a trade-off: LLY offers concentrated blockbuster momentum and rapid growth, while JNJ delivers stable, broad-based performance with resilient cash flows.
Eli Lilly (LLY) Q4 2025 Highlights
-
Revenue: $19.3B (+43% YoY, vs. ~$17.9B consensus)
-
Non-GAAP EPS: $7.54 (+42% YoY, beat $6.96–7.20)
-
Key drivers: Mounjaro $7.4B (+110% YoY), Zepbound $4.3B (+123% YoY)
-
Volume growth: 46% for key drugs; minor 5% price declines
-
Full-year revenue: $65.2B (+45%)
-
Guidance 2026: Revenue $80–83B, non-GAAP EPS $33.50–35 (~25% sales growth)
-
Market response: Shares gained ~5–8% post-release
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q4 2025 Highlights
-
Revenue: $24.6B (+9.1% reported; +7.1% operational, beat ~$24.1B)
-
Adjusted EPS: $2.46, in line with consensus
-
Segment drivers: Innovative Medicines +5.3% operational (10% Q4), led by DARZALEX, TREMFYA, CAPLYTA; MedTech +5.4%
-
Full-year revenue: $94.2B (+6%)
-
2026 guidance: Operational sales ~$100B, adjusted EPS ~$11.53
-
Market response: Shares dipped 1–2% post-earnings
Insight: LLY’s growth trajectory dwarfs JNJ’s operational expansion, driven by concentrated blockbuster therapies, while JNJ provides multi-segment stability and predictable cash flows. LLY carries higher P/E, reflecting growth premium; JNJ offers defensive reliability and dividends.
AI Trading Bot Perspective
Tickeron’s Trend Trader for Beginners Strategy (60-min TA) highlights LLY’s momentum as favorable in short- to medium-term trends, driven by earnings beats and guidance, while JNJ’s steadier growth signals lower volatility strategies for defensive positioning. The bot emphasizes trend alignment, stop-loss discipline, and historical pattern recognition for both names.
Conclusion: LLY currently leads probabilistically in bull-market scenarios due to strong near-term earnings momentum and blockbuster pipeline growth, whereas JNJ suits investors prioritizing diversification, MedTech exposure, and stable dividend income.
Disclaimers and Limitations
Contributor
LLY in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026
The 10-day moving average for LLY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on LLY as a result. In 53 of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LLY just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where LLY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
LLY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +10.03% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LLY advanced for three days, in 258 of 371 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 231 of 297 cases where LLY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 78%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 13 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LLY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
LLY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. LLY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 60, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: LLY's P/B Ratio (37.081) is slightly higher than the industry average of (-1.619). P/E Ratio (47.215) is within average values for comparable stocks, (21.766). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.170) is also within normal values, averaging (5.738). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.038) among similar stocks. LLY's P/S Ratio (12.804) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (4.033).
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
a manufacturer of pharmaceutical products
Industry PharmaceuticalsMajor
Advertisement