LLY vs JNJ Stock Comparison: Q4 2025 Earnings and 2026 Guidance
Key Takeaways
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Eli Lilly (LLY) reported Q4 revenue of $19.3B (+43% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $7.54 vs. $6.96 consensus, driven by GLP-1 drugs Mounjaro ($7.4B, +110% YoY) and Zepbound ($4.3B, +123% YoY). Full-year 2025 revenue: $65.2B (+45%). 2026 guidance: $80–83B revenue, non-GAAP EPS $33.50–35.
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Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) posted Q4 sales of $24.6B (+9.1% reported; +7.1% operational), adjusted EPS $2.46 in line with forecasts. Full-year 2025 revenue: $94.2B (+6%). 2026 guidance: ~$100B operational sales, adjusted EPS ~$11.53.
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Market Reaction: LLY shares rose ~5–8% post-earnings on strong beats and guidance; JNJ dipped 1–2% despite revenue strength, reflecting in-line EPS.
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LLY provides high-growth exposure to obesity/diabetes; JNJ offers diversified stability across pharmaceuticals and MedTech.
Earnings Context
Eli Lilly’s Q4 results highlight explosive growth from GLP-1 therapies, cementing leadership in obesity and diabetes. The company’s strong revenue beat and robust 2026 guidance illustrate high-growth pharma dynamics. Johnson & Johnson, in contrast, exemplifies a diversified healthcare strategy, combining pharmaceuticals, MedTech, and consumer health for steady expansion. Comparing the two illustrates a trade-off: LLY offers concentrated blockbuster momentum and rapid growth, while JNJ delivers stable, broad-based performance with resilient cash flows.
Eli Lilly (LLY) Q4 2025 Highlights
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Revenue: $19.3B (+43% YoY, vs. ~$17.9B consensus)
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Non-GAAP EPS: $7.54 (+42% YoY, beat $6.96–7.20)
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Key drivers: Mounjaro $7.4B (+110% YoY), Zepbound $4.3B (+123% YoY)
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Volume growth: 46% for key drugs; minor 5% price declines
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Full-year revenue: $65.2B (+45%)
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Guidance 2026: Revenue $80–83B, non-GAAP EPS $33.50–35 (~25% sales growth)
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Market response: Shares gained ~5–8% post-release
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q4 2025 Highlights
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Revenue: $24.6B (+9.1% reported; +7.1% operational, beat ~$24.1B)
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Adjusted EPS: $2.46, in line with consensus
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Segment drivers: Innovative Medicines +5.3% operational (10% Q4), led by DARZALEX, TREMFYA, CAPLYTA; MedTech +5.4%
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Full-year revenue: $94.2B (+6%)
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2026 guidance: Operational sales ~$100B, adjusted EPS ~$11.53
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Market response: Shares dipped 1–2% post-earnings
Insight: LLY’s growth trajectory dwarfs JNJ’s operational expansion, driven by concentrated blockbuster therapies, while JNJ provides multi-segment stability and predictable cash flows. LLY carries higher P/E, reflecting growth premium; JNJ offers defensive reliability and dividends.
AI Trading Bot Perspective
Tickeron’s Trend Trader for Beginners Strategy (60-min TA) highlights LLY’s momentum as favorable in short- to medium-term trends, driven by earnings beats and guidance, while JNJ’s steadier growth signals lower volatility strategies for defensive positioning. The bot emphasizes trend alignment, stop-loss discipline, and historical pattern recognition for both names.
Conclusion: LLY currently leads probabilistically in bull-market scenarios due to strong near-term earnings momentum and blockbuster pipeline growth, whereas JNJ suits investors prioritizing diversification, MedTech exposure, and stable dividend income.
Disclaimers and Limitations
LLY sees its Stochastic Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
On March 10, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for LLY moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In of the 53 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LLY advanced for three days, in of 388 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
LLY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on March 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on LLY as a result. In of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for LLY turned negative on March 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
LLY moved below its 50-day moving average on March 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LLY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for LLY entered a downward trend on March 11, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 73, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LLY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (33.670) is normal, around the industry mean (9.325). LLY has a moderately high P/E Ratio (43.632) as compared to the industry average of (22.496). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.074) is also within normal values, averaging (2.279). LLY has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.006) as compared to the industry average of (0.025). LLY's P/S Ratio (13.812) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.956).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a manufacturer of pharmaceutical products
Industry PharmaceuticalsMajor
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