LLY vs JNJ Stock Comparison: Q4 2025 Earnings and 2026 Guidance
Key Takeaways
-
Eli Lilly (LLY) reported Q4 revenue of $19.3B (+43% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $7.54 vs. $6.96 consensus, driven by GLP-1 drugs Mounjaro ($7.4B, +110% YoY) and Zepbound ($4.3B, +123% YoY). Full-year 2025 revenue: $65.2B (+45%). 2026 guidance: $80–83B revenue, non-GAAP EPS $33.50–35.
-
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) posted Q4 sales of $24.6B (+9.1% reported; +7.1% operational), adjusted EPS $2.46 in line with forecasts. Full-year 2025 revenue: $94.2B (+6%). 2026 guidance: ~$100B operational sales, adjusted EPS ~$11.53.
-
Market Reaction: LLY shares rose ~5–8% post-earnings on strong beats and guidance; JNJ dipped 1–2% despite revenue strength, reflecting in-line EPS.
-
LLY provides high-growth exposure to obesity/diabetes; JNJ offers diversified stability across pharmaceuticals and MedTech.
Earnings Context
Eli Lilly’s Q4 results highlight explosive growth from GLP-1 therapies, cementing leadership in obesity and diabetes. The company’s strong revenue beat and robust 2026 guidance illustrate high-growth pharma dynamics. Johnson & Johnson, in contrast, exemplifies a diversified healthcare strategy, combining pharmaceuticals, MedTech, and consumer health for steady expansion. Comparing the two illustrates a trade-off: LLY offers concentrated blockbuster momentum and rapid growth, while JNJ delivers stable, broad-based performance with resilient cash flows.
Eli Lilly (LLY) Q4 2025 Highlights
-
Revenue: $19.3B (+43% YoY, vs. ~$17.9B consensus)
-
Non-GAAP EPS: $7.54 (+42% YoY, beat $6.96–7.20)
-
Key drivers: Mounjaro $7.4B (+110% YoY), Zepbound $4.3B (+123% YoY)
-
Volume growth: 46% for key drugs; minor 5% price declines
-
Full-year revenue: $65.2B (+45%)
-
Guidance 2026: Revenue $80–83B, non-GAAP EPS $33.50–35 (~25% sales growth)
-
Market response: Shares gained ~5–8% post-release
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q4 2025 Highlights
-
Revenue: $24.6B (+9.1% reported; +7.1% operational, beat ~$24.1B)
-
Adjusted EPS: $2.46, in line with consensus
-
Segment drivers: Innovative Medicines +5.3% operational (10% Q4), led by DARZALEX, TREMFYA, CAPLYTA; MedTech +5.4%
-
Full-year revenue: $94.2B (+6%)
-
2026 guidance: Operational sales ~$100B, adjusted EPS ~$11.53
-
Market response: Shares dipped 1–2% post-earnings
Insight: LLY’s growth trajectory dwarfs JNJ’s operational expansion, driven by concentrated blockbuster therapies, while JNJ provides multi-segment stability and predictable cash flows. LLY carries higher P/E, reflecting growth premium; JNJ offers defensive reliability and dividends.
AI Trading Bot Perspective
Tickeron’s Trend Trader for Beginners Strategy (60-min TA) highlights LLY’s momentum as favorable in short- to medium-term trends, driven by earnings beats and guidance, while JNJ’s steadier growth signals lower volatility strategies for defensive positioning. The bot emphasizes trend alignment, stop-loss discipline, and historical pattern recognition for both names.
Conclusion: LLY currently leads probabilistically in bull-market scenarios due to strong near-term earnings momentum and blockbuster pipeline growth, whereas JNJ suits investors prioritizing diversification, MedTech exposure, and stable dividend income.
Disclaimers and Limitations
Aroon Indicator for LLY shows an upward move is likely
LLY's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on July 02, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 307 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In of the 307 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 26, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on LLY as a result. In of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LLY just turned positive on June 29, 2026. Looking at past instances where LLY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LLY advanced for three days, in of 378 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for LLY moved out of overbought territory on June 30, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 35 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 35 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LLY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
LLY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 26, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. LLY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 63, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (31.546) is normal, around the industry mean (19.576). P/E Ratio (39.150) is within average values for comparable stocks, (26.499). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.477) is also within normal values, averaging (4.388). LLY has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.006) as compared to the industry average of (0.031). LLY's P/S Ratio (13.699) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.942).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
a manufacturer of pharmaceutical products
Industry PharmaceuticalsMajor
Advertisement