GET DAILY SIGNALSFed Leaves Policy Rate Unchanged at 2.25% -2.5% in January
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at a range of 2.25% to 2.5%. The policy rate is what banks charge each other for lending funds overnight.
At the first Federal Open Market Committee meet of 2019, central bankers expressed caution amidst global economic uncertainties, such as trade tensions, potential headwinds from economic slowdowns in China and Europe, and the recent U.S. government shutdown. The U.S. domestic macroeconomic conditions seem sanguine through, with low unemployment and strong job gains.
Although the Fed had earlier expected two hikes for the policy rate for this year, it seems that central bankers are now tilting more towards a ‘wait-and-see’ mode.
"The case for raising rates has weakened somewhat," said Fed chair Jerome Powell at a press conference following the committee's January rate-setting meeting. "We believe we can best support the economy by being patient and evaluating the outlook before making any future adjustment to policy."
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Aroon Indicator for SHY shows an upward move is likely
SHY's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on November 02, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 398 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 68 of the 398 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 17%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SHY as a result. In 10 of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 12%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SHY just turned positive on October 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where SHY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 8 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 16%.
Following a +0.31% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SHY advanced for three days, in 30 of 292 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 10%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 20 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SHY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 9%.
SHY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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