Federal Reserve minutes show uncertainty about need for rate hikes
It seems Federal Reserve officials widely favored ending the runoff of the central bank’s balance sheet this year, while expressing uncertainty over whether they would raise interest rates again in 2019, minutes of their January meeting showed.
“Almost all participants thought that it would be desirable to announce before too long a plan to stop reducing the Federal Reserve’s asset holdings later this year,” according to the record of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Jan. 29-30 gathering released Wednesday. The Fed further explained its movement away from projecting gradual interest-rate hikes. The minutes said that “many participants suggested that it was not yet clear what adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate later this year.”
SPY's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for SPY entered a downward trend on January 08, 2025. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 110 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In of the 110 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on January 07, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SPY as a result. In of 69 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
SPY moved below its 50-day moving average on January 07, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SPY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on January 08, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 42 cases where SPY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPY advanced for three days, in of 366 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
SPY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
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