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Indra Bhattacharjee's Avatar
published in Blogs
Mar 03, 2019

Gap Inc. (GPS, $29.51) to separate Old Navy as a new company

Gap Inc’s shares rose 25% on Thursday after the company indicated its plans to separate its Old Navy brand, along with the closing of 230 Gap stores. 68 stores have already been shut.

The company has had mixed sales across its brands. Old Navy performed the best, as its wide range of budget apparel made it more attractive to a broader base of customers. On the other hand, Gap had a hard time catching up with the fast-fashion retailers and changing trends. This is confirmed by the fact that Old Navy has annual sales of about $8 billion, while the other brands have a combined revenue of $9 billion.

The company is also planning to boost its marketing and to develop new products for the Gap brand. However, the CEO Art Peck wants to focus more on the period-over-period improvement. Gap shares have fallen roughly 20% over the past 12 months, bringing its market cap to about $9.7 billion.

It is still undecided under which company name Gap, Athleta, Banana Republic and the remaining brands will come. The separation of Old Navy into a publicly listed company, which Gap said will be tax free to investors, is likely to be completed by 2020.

Analysts believe that the separation of Old Navy as a new company may enable a strategic focus, but this could reduce the diversification the brand provides to the overall entity.

Related Ticker: GPS

GPS sees MACD Histogram just turned negative

GPS saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on April 03, 2024. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 51 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on April 04, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on GPS as a result. In of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

GPS moved below its 50-day moving average on April 15, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GPS declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

Following a +1 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GPS advanced for three days, in of 297 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

GPS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 237 cases where GPS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.922) is normal, around the industry mean (3.862). P/E Ratio (20.336) is within average values for comparable stocks, (100.955). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.003) is also within normal values, averaging (1.444). Dividend Yield (0.022) settles around the average of (0.027) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.688) is also within normal values, averaging (2.003).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GPS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GPS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX), lululemon athletica (NASDAQ:LULU), Gap (The) (NYSE:GPS), Abercrombie & Fitch Co (NYSE:ANF), Foot Locker (NYSE:FL), Guess (NYSE:GES), Stitch Fix (NASDAQ:SFIX).

Industry description

Companies in the apparel and/or footwear retail industry sell clothing, accessories and footwear, for different age groups and genders. The industry’s product categories could range from basics, such as underwear, to luxury items. Some retailers source items from wholesalers or an apparel brand to sell in their stores; some others are licensed to make and market their own retail goods under particular brands. Several companies outsource production of clothing to developing/emerging economies where labor costs are relatively inexpensive. Apparel retail is often influenced by fashion trends, and many companies feel the need to adapt to what’s “in vogue” to retain customers and attract new ones. A major disruption in this industry has been the burgeoning trend in digital shopping – to compete with rapidly growing e-commerce, even traditional retail players are upping the ante on their online platforms. Much of the products’ performance in apparel/footwear retail is cyclical, i.e., economic boom times encourage consumer spending, while recessions induce thriftiness among people. Some large-cap U.S. apparel/footwear retail companies include TJX Companies Inc., Ross Stores, Inc., Lululemon Athletica Inc. and Burlington Stores, Inc.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Apparel/Footwear Retail Industry is 12.45B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 256K to 119.4B. IDEXY holds the highest valuation in this group at 119.4B. The lowest valued company is DESTQ at 256K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Apparel/Footwear Retail Industry was -3%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -6%, and the average quarterly price growth was 35%. RENT experienced the highest price growth at 68%, while DBGI experienced the biggest fall at -32%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Apparel/Footwear Retail Industry was 15%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 13% and the average quarterly volume growth was 35%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 53
P/E Growth Rating: 45
Price Growth Rating: 62
SMR Rating: 64
Profit Risk Rating: 77
Seasonality Score: -2 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

an operator of stores that retail clothing, accessories and personal care products

Industry ApparelFootwearRetail

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Apparel Or Footwear Retail
Address
Two Folsom Street
Phone
+1 415 427-0100
Employees
85000
Web
https://www.gapinc.com
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