Goldman Sachs (GS) vs. Morgan Stanley (MS): What Q1 2026 Earnings Could Reveal About Investment Banking Leaders
Key Takeaways
- Goldman Sachs (GS) reports Q1 2026 earnings on April 13, with consensus EPS of $16.34 and revenue of $16.95 billion, signaling 16% EPS growth year-over-year.
- Morgan Stanley (MS) follows on April 15, expecting EPS of $3.02 and revenue of $19.71 billion, up 16% in EPS.
- Both firms lead in investment banking (IB) fees; GS topped 2025 M&A revenue at $4.6 billion, while MS saw Q4 IB surge 47% to $2.41 billion.
- GS dominates trading with record 2025 equities revenue of $16.5 billion; MS excels in wealth management with $9.3 trillion client assets.
- Return on tangible common equity (ROTCE, a profitability measure adjusted for intangibles) hit 17.1% for GS in Q4 2025 and 21.8% for MS, highlighting strong capital efficiency.
- Q1 previews point to sustained momentum in IB and trading amid market volatility.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
As we approach the Q1 2026 earnings season, I'm paying close attention to GS and MS, two powerhouse investment banks that compete head-on in advisory, underwriting, trading, and asset management. Their reports, due on April 13 and 15 respectively, should shed light on the ongoing recovery in dealmaking and how they're navigating trading dynamics. Both capitalized on the 2025 investment banking rebound, with GS taking the lead in M&A and MS making gains in debt underwriting. What stands out to me in this matchup is their strategic divergence: GS's emphasis on high-margin Global Banking & Markets compared to MS's broader wealth management platform, all set against a backdrop of heightened client activity and market swings.
Spotlight on Goldman Sachs
GS kicks off with its Q1 2026 results on April 13, covering the quarter through March 31. Analysts are forecasting EPS of $16.34, a 16% jump from $14.12 a year ago, alongside revenue of $16.95 billion, up 13%. The spotlight will be on Global Banking & Markets, projected at $12.65 billion (an 18% increase), powered by investment banking fees of $2.42 billion (26% growth), FICC intermediation, and strong equities financing. Building on Q4 2025's $13.45 billion revenue and $14.01 EPS—which beat estimates by 20%—the firm's 2025 highlights, including $9.34 billion in annual IB fees and a record $16.54 billion in equities revenue, suggest continued strength. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how GS stacks up against peers in trading metrics. Asset & Wealth Management fees reached a record $11.54 billion for the year, adding a layer of stability.
Morgan Stanley's Outlook
MS follows suit on April 15 for its Q1 2026 earnings. Expectations center on $3.02 EPS (16% growth) and $19.71 billion in revenue (11% up). Institutional Securities is anticipated at $9.80 billion (9% increase), featuring IB fees of $2.02 billion (30% growth), while Wealth Management net revenues may hit $8.51 billion (16% rise), driven by $2.17 billion in net interest income. In Q4 2025, MS posted $17.9 billion revenue and $2.68 EPS (beating by 11%), capping a record $70.6 billion annual revenue with 21.6% ROTCE. Wealth Management added $356 billion in net new assets, pushing total client assets to $9.3 trillion, and Institutional Securities delivered $33.1 billion for the year, reinforcing its IB prowess.
Head-to-Head: Earnings and Market Positions
In scale, GS holds an edge in investment banking, topping 2025 M&A revenue at $4.6 billion against MS's $3 billion, complemented by standout equities trading at $16.5 billion annually. MS balances this with diversified streams, Wealth pre-tax margins approaching 30%, and a higher ROTCE (21.6% versus GS's 16%). Growth in IB and trading looks solid for both, though MS's $9.3 trillion AUM provides a buffer. Potential headwinds include volatility hitting FICC and equities, plus regulatory scrutiny on capital. From what I see, sentiment leans toward GS for trading potential and MS for wealth durability.
AI Screener
In my own research, I rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener—an AI-powered tool for discovering stocks and ETFs by filtering on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI signals. It lets you scan thousands of assets with custom criteria like industry, market cap, indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics, surfacing trade ideas, breakouts, and opportunities faster than manual methods. I find it invaluable for comparisons like this one between GS and MS. Check out the AI Screener to refine your strategy.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI currently favors GS with a 65% probability edge over MS, citing superior IB positioning, trading strength, and Q1 growth trajectory despite MS's wealth stability. I'm watching this closely as earnings unfold.
Disclaimer
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GS sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
On July 07, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for GS moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In of the 53 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GS advanced for three days, in of 354 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 290 cases where GS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for GS moved out of overbought territory on June 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 41 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on June 26, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on GS as a result. In of 77 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for GS turned negative on June 24, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 42 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GS declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. GS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.785) is normal, around the industry mean (3.857). P/E Ratio (18.806) is within average values for comparable stocks, (48.813). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.547) is also within normal values, averaging (1.817). Dividend Yield (0.016) settles around the average of (0.034) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.339) is also within normal values, averaging (31.344).
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General Information
a provider of investment banking, securities and asset management services
Industry InvestmentBanksBrokers
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